Monsoonal moisture follows warm and likely dry weekend

Thursday, July 14, 2016

A Pacific Northwest storm near the Canadian border will move inland overnight and drag a shallow cool front across our region after midnight, continuing the string of cool nights for the Steamboat Springs area. Additionally, cool air moving southward from western Canada will moderate a building western ridge this weekend, replacing the near-normal temperatures of this past week with warming temperatures.

There may be some clouds Friday through Sunday as some mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Darby in the eastern Pacific moves over the area in west to southwest flow, and this will also warm the overnight temperatures.

Cool air from Siberia currently crossing the North Pole will spin up another Pacific Northwest storm late in the weekend, and that will allow a stronger ridge to build over the western US by early next week as the storm digs further to the south along the West Coast than the previous Pacific Northwest storms.

The end result will be temperature soaring to well above normal early in the week before monsoonal moisture from Mexico brings clouds and showers and the attendant cooler temperatures to the region around midweek.

Longer range models indicate the monsoonal pattern may hang around after next week as a trough of low pressure lingers off the West Coast, keeping the moist south-southwesterly flow going over our area.

Cool nights and pleasant days ahead

Monday, July 11, 2016

The cold front that passed through the Steamboat Springs area last night brought freezing temperatures to the top of Mt. Werner this morning and kept daytime temperatures pleasantly below normal. Though the strongest westerly winds will decrease by midweek, continued westerly flow with embedded waves will keep the cool nights and pleasant daytime temperatures with breezy afternoon winds going through most of the rest of the work week.

A Pacific Northwest storm crossing the coast near the Canadian border on Friday will cause the flow to back to the southwest and bring still dry weather but warmer temperatures to our area by the end of the work week and through the weekend.

More cold air from Siberia will cross the North Pole and spin up another unseasonably strong storm off the Pacific Northwest coast by early next week. Not only will this increase temperatures to well above normal again as a western ridge builds ahead of the storm, but will also allow some monsoonal moisture to our southwest to be drawn over our area.

Current models have this as the beginnings of another monsoonal surge that may introduce considerable moisture for Colorado starting around next midweek.

Windy and cool follows hot weekend

Friday, July 8, 2016

After a seasonably hot weekend with some afternoon clouds and possibly a stray shower later Sunday, an unseasonably cold storm currently off the Pacific northwest coast will move across the northern Great Basin on Sunday. Breezy to windy southwest winds will occur by Sunday afternoon before the dry cold front moves through the area Sunday night or Monday morning as the main storm passes north of our area.

Monday will be noticeably cooler with still breezy westerly winds as the first cold front passes through, followed by additional cool waves which will keep the cool mornings with pleasant daytime temperatures and dry weather going for most of the work week.

A flat ridge is forecast to build across the western US for still dry but warming temperatures around next weekend courtesy of a mass of cold air from Siberia that is forecast drop through Alaska and spin up another strong Pacific Northwest storm by late next weekend.

Dry weather returns with cool fronts Thursday and early next week

Monday, July 4, 2016

Though we will still be susceptible to afternoon and early evening storms for Independence Day and Tuesday, the atmosphere will continue to dry and warm over the next few days, though at a slightly slower rate than in last Friday’s forecast.

After a mostly dry Wednesday, a wave traveling along the Canadian border midweek will bring the possibility of showers, likely staying to our north for Wednesday night. But cool air will wash over the area on Thursday along with breezy to windy west winds in a still dry atmosphere.

Temperatures should soar to above normal with diminishing winds by later Friday and heading into the weekend as a transient ridge builds behind the departing storm to our north and ahead of another strong Pacific Northwest storm making landfall early next weekend.

By late Sunday or early next week, cooler temperatures, again with breezy to windy westerly winds with still dry weather are expected as that Pacific Northwest storm moves across the northern Great Basin.

Wet weather gradually dries through the long weekend

Friday, July 1, 2016

A wave moving across the well-established monsoon moisture plume currently over Colorado will keep showers going through at least the first half of the night. This wave is strong enough to bring mountain-top northwest flow by tonight which may allow for some drying by early Saturday as the deepest moisture is pushed south behind the departing wave. However, Saturday afternoon storms, possibly strong, will be likely in the still moist and unstable airmass.

By Sunday, moisture erodes further for a drier morning courtesy of a Pacific Northwest storm approaching the coast. But another wave is kicked across Colorado Sunday afternoon by the Pacific storm, and this will again lead to the chance of afternoon storms, possibly strong.

Even though moisture erodes further for Monday, yet another weak wave is forced eastward across Colorado as the Pacific Northwest storm crosses the coast near the Canadian border, and this will again lead the possibility of afternoon storms, though weaker and less numerous than the weekend.

Much drier air overspreads the area on Tuesday and Wednesday accompanied by seasonal temperatures for a very pleasant couple of days.

By Thursday and into Friday, a tropical wave moving from east to west across the Mexican plateau early in the week will travel over our area in continued southwest flow, similar to how the current monsoon event started this past Wednesday. This may again lead to a couple of wet days, though there is model disagreement as to to the duration and depth of this moisture, with the ECMWF being less aggressive than the GFS. In any case, another Pacific Northwest storm looks to make landfall near the end of the work week and westerly flow will cut off the moisture plume by the weekend as the storm moves inland.

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