Record breaking September in the books
Sunday, October 6, 2024
Sunny but hazy skies and temperatures approaching sixty degrees, again on their way to the low seventies, are over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon. Smoke from the Lake Fire in the Unitas will come and go during the workweek as high temperatures hover in the low to mid-seventies, along with occasional clouds as Pacific moisture sneaks into the area. The benign weather will allow more space in this weather narrative to list some of the Steamboat Springs temperature records broken in September.
The temperature records are due to a stubborn ridge of high pressure established in mid-September that is still centered over the West. Not only were several high temperature records set in September, but we just had another one this last Friday as the 81 F recorded at the official weather station behind the high school broke the old record of 80 F set in 1945.
The highlight of September occurred around last weekend of the month when the high temperature reached 86 F on Friday, surpassing the old record of 83 F set in 2001. And the 85 F records set on both Saturday and Sunday broke the previous 83 F records set in 2010 on Saturday and 2019 on Sunday.
Combined with the unseasonably warm temperatures preceding and following that weekend, the last week of September was the hottest measured since record-keeping began in Steamboat Springs in February of 1893. These seven days broke three records and tied two, averaging a high temperature of 82.9 F compared to the old record of 81.7 recorded in 2001. The ten days straddling the start of October between September 26 and October 5 averaged a high temperature of 81.9, which also broke the previous record of 79.3 set in 1897.
Though we had some cool days, including a high temperature of only 61 F on Tuesday, September 17, the average high temperature of September was the ninth hottest on record, with an average of 78.4 F, well short of the 82.1 F set in 1897. In fact the three hottest Septembers were in 1897, 1896 and 1893. Imagine moving here as a settler in the early 1890’s and experiencing the three hottest Septembers in the next 130 years, and counting! Trying to plan for the future years based only on that short-term experience could have proven fatal.
If the average daily temperature is considered, which averages both the high and low temperature of the day, September moves up the list as the fourth warmest on record at 58.1 F, compared to the record of 58.9 set in 1998.
The temperature records look to be safe this week as high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-seventies, especially the 89 F record set on October 9, 1910! That was also the hottest temperature recorded in October, followed by the next hottest of 84 F set two days earlier on October 7, 1910 and tying the high temperature set two years earlier on October 8, 1908. And 1908 had some warm days, as the highest September temperature of 93 F was set on September 7.
While the mid-seventies sounds cool relative to the high-temperature records, it is still around ten degrees above our average of 64 F. Some Pacific moisture may sneak under the dominant western ridge of high pressure for some occasional clouds, but smoke from the Lake Fire burning in northeast Utah may prove to be the most noticeable element of the workweek weather. Check the NOAA Smoke Plume model, also available via the See the latest NOAA smoke model forecast link under the Purple Air widget on the SnowAlarm home page for the latest smoke forecast. The model is run four times a day through forty-eight hours, and currently predicts some smoke abatement on Monday before another pulse approaches our area on Tuesday.
There was earlier hope of a storm around next weekend, but the weather forecast models have backed off that prediction for now. So enjoy another warm fall workweek, and check back for the latest details on the coming weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Another beautiful weekend ahead
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures approaching seventy-five degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday midafternoon. We’ve had nothing but beautiful weather since fall officially arrived almost two weeks ago, and that looks to continue through this weekend and into the following week. Near-record temperatures approaching eighty degrees are expected for Friday ahead of a storm moving through the northern Rockies on Saturday. Expect a breezy or even windy Saturday afternoon thanks to a grazing cool front that will knock temperatures back toward the low seventies.
A ridge of high pressure over the West will be pushed eastward by a storm forecast to pass through Vancouver on Friday. Breezes will increase from the west and southwest ahead of the storm, allowing temperatures to approach the record high of 80 F set in 1943. I suspect we were close to reaching or exceeding temperature records last weekend, but those official data are still awaiting publication.
Though winds will subside overnight, some cloud cover and leftover breezes may be enough to keep our low temperatures five to ten degrees above our average of 29 F. And even though high temperatures will fall back into the low seventies for Saturday and Sunday thanks to breezes out of the west and northwest, which will be strongest on Saturday, that is still almost ten degrees above our average of 65 F.
There is still plenty of lower-elevation color around, so get out and enjoy another warm and sunny weekend. We may see some moisture sneaking under the rebuilding ridge of high pressure over the West around midweek, though the weather forecast models have recently diminished those chances. Otherwise, a more promising storm may be strong enough to displace the high pressure ridge over the West by the following weekend. I’ll have more details on those possibilities in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Spectacular weather to continue this week
Sunday, September 29, 2024
Temperatures are around seventy degrees, again on their way into the low-eighties, under mostly sunny skies this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs. Despite some cooling starting tomorrow, mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper-seventies will persist through the work week and into the following weekend.
The 84 F high temperature in town last Wednesday broke the previous record for the date set in 2015 by one degree. Even though the official data are yet to be published by the weather station near the high school, we should be challenging the previous records of 83 F set in 2001 on Friday, 2010 on Saturday and 2019 today.
The warm sunny days and clear crisp nights with lows in the mid to upper-thirties and low forties, between five and ten degrees above our average of 31 F, have allowed quite the color spectacle to appear over the area, as shown by some recent photos.
The current weather is due to a ridge of high pressure over most of the West. An eddy of low pressure over central California has pulled a modicum of moisture northward toward our area, while a quick-moving wave of low pressure has moved through Vancouver.
We may see more afternoon clouds today and perhaps even an insignificant afternoon or evening shower ahead of the Vancouver storm which is forecast to sweep across the northern Rockies on Monday.
Ahead of a cool front from the storm tickling our region late Monday or early Tuesday, breezes from the west will pick up later today and especially Monday, perhaps shaking some leaves off the colorful display. High temperatures will drop into the upper-seventies on Monday and the mid-seventies on Tuesday, still well above our average of 68 F.
The grazing cool front will be our only weather this week, with mostly sunny skies and mid-seventy temperatures persisting through the work week and into the weekend. There was a chance for a pattern change around next weekend, but current weather forecast models have the western ridge of high pressure deflecting or weakening any incoming Pacific weather systems.
So enjoy the summery weather ahead, and check my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see if this gorgeous weather persists through next weekend.
Gorgeous weather to continue through the weekend
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Mostly sunny skies and eighty-one-degree temperatures are over the Steamboat Springs area late this Thursday afternoon. This gorgeous weather will continue through the weekend, leaving a simple and short weather narrative for this afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over the western two-thirds of the country while rapidly intensifying Hurricane Helene approaches the Big Bend region of Florida. Eventually, the tropical storm will merge with an eddy of low pressure over the Mississippi River Valley, with that interaction lasting through at least the weekend, but that will not affect our weather.
Instead, a quick-moving and dry storm that moved across the northern Rockies today has squashed the northern part of the ridge and carried a modicum of moisture overhead for some sparse clouds today. Another similarly dry but stronger storm is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Sunday, keeping the sparse moisture around for some afternoon clouds, but not affecting the mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-eighties. This is over ten degrees above our average of 69 F and might threaten the record temperature of 83 F set in 2001 on Friday, 2010 on Saturday and 2019 on Sunday.
And even though the average low temperature has fallen to freezing, the mild air mass under the ridge of high pressure will moderate low temperatures and keep them in the mid to upper-thirties and low-forties.
The fall colors are nearing a peak above 9000′, if not already there, so get out and enjoy the stellar weekend that will feel more like summer than fall. That Pacific Northwest storm may induce some afternoon breezes from the west as soon as Sunday afternoon ahead of a grazing and dry cold front late Monday or early Tuesday. I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Beautiful early fall weather ahead
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Fall was shepherded into the Steamboat Springs area Saturday afternoon by a blustery storm short on precipitation. Cool and unstable air behind the storm will keep some clouds around for the first day of fall this Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-sixties. Even though Monday will start sunny, we should see afternoon clouds ahead of a grazing cold front early Tuesday that will keep temperatures below seventy degrees. But mostly sunny skies with high temperatures reaching seventy degrees on Tuesday and upper-seventies starting Wednesday promise a beautiful stretch of weather lasting into the weekend.
Hopes for a dusting of snow at the top of the Steamboat Ski Area last night were dashed by a storm that traveled a bit further south than forecast. We were left with gusty winds reaching 43 mph at the Bob Adams airport and 62 mph at the Storm Peak Lab with an easterly component that squashed most precipitation, thanks to downsloping off the Park Range. Most of town received about five-hundredths of an inch of rain, and no precipitation occurred at the top of the ski area in time for the freezing temperatures which arrived just before midnight.
Fortunately, fall color has only started to appear, and most leaves were left on the trees for what promises to be a great show thanks to the rapidly appearing color. We should see a mix of sun and clouds this Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-sixties, about five degrees below our rapidly falling average of 71 F.
A cold front forecast by the European ECMWF to be more impactful in previous model interations will end up only grazing our area early Tuesday morning, similar to the American GFS, bringing some Monday afternoon clouds after a sunny but chilly start. Low temperatures Monday should fall to just below our average of 34 F with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
But a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West behind the grazing front starting Tuesday and lasting into the following weekend. Despite our average high temperatures falling to 69 F by Thursday, mostly sunny skies will allow high temperatures to reach the upper-seventies starting Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.
Low temperatures will also rise, but still remain below forty degrees, leading to quintessential Colorado early fall weather with warm sunny days and crisp cool nights, ideal for both producing and viewing the fall color spectacle.
So enjoy the perfect weather window this week, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative Thursday afternoon to see if this lasts through next weekend.
