Snow to continue into Tuesday with another chance on Thursday
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Some sun has broken out late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures near thirty degrees in town and ten degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Snowfall chances will continue into Tuesday as the current storm departs and the next storm approaches, though snowfall amounts related to the second storm will be light. A break in the weather highlighted by a frigid Wednesday morning will be over by Thursday as another storm brings a round of light snowfall.
In addition to the seven inches reported at mid-mountain this morning and fifteen inches up top, four inches of snow fell at mid-mountain since the report. While the current storm has already moved across the Kansas - Missouri border, show showers have continued in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm. As subtle embedded waves move overhead, we could see another 3-6” of snow overnight which would be added to this morning’s accumulated snow.
Light snow showers will continue Monday morning ahead of the next storm crossing the Oregon coast this evening. The storm will mix with some arctic air from western Canada, and even though the storm is forecast to move through Nevada Monday night, a cold front sweeping through our area Monday afternoon should keep snow showers going into Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Accumulations by the Tuesday morning report will likely only be in the 2-5” range.
Unfortunately, thanks to the storm’s location to our southwest, we will see easterly winds by Monday night or early Tuesday morning, shutting off the precipitation as air downslopes off the Park Range. Winds could be gusting to 30 mph by late Tuesday morning, making lift rides on westerly-facing chairlifts quite unpleasant.
Some dry air behind the storm and ahead of our next storm for Thursday will combine with the arctic air mass to bring frigid subzero temperatures for Wednesday morning, with lows in town forecast to be between -5 F and -15 F, well below our 4 F average. Mountain-top temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer, but still between 0 F and -10 F.
Though high temperatures are forecast to rise to the low-twenties in town on Wednesday, similar to Tuesday and Thursday and below our average of 28 F, I would not be surprised to see them mired in the teens despite mostly sunny skies due to such a cold start to the day.
A weak wave of energy and moisture is then forecast to move through a quickly building ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and bring light snow chances back to our area on Thursday. After another break in the weather Friday, a stronger storm is forecast for the weekend.
So enjoy the wintry week, and I’ll have more details on the storm for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
A nice Friday to be followed by more snow starting Saturday afternoon
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Temperatures are finally above freezing this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, and in the upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under cloudy skies. Some lingering upper-elevation snow showers will end this evening before being followed by a pleasant and mostly sunny Friday. But more snow is coming thanks to an approaching winter storm that begins Saturday afternoon and winds down Sunday night.
We received three inches of snow at mid-mountain and five inches up top as of today’s 5 am ski report, making yesterday’s update inappropriate. Sadly, the warming atmosphere overcame the favorable orographics, or terrain-based lifting, to invalidate some of the more bullish short-range models that prompted the update. One of these models is notorious for over-predicting snowfall, perhaps due to the internal physics that converts cloud water and ice into snow, though occasionally it gets the prediction right. The often-wrong-but-sometimes-right feature makes this forecaster’s job quite difficult as the precipitation range often increases as we get closer to an event.
That said, our next winter storm is moving through the Gulf of Alaska and should cross most of the West Coast later Friday. A ridge of high pressure will quickly build ahead of the storm and move through our area on Friday, bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures approaching forty degrees in town, well above the 28 F average.
Though the storm will split to some degree by Saturday morning, most of the storm will cross the Great Basin during the day Saturday before moving over Colorado Saturday night and into Kansas on Sunday. Snow showers should begin Saturday afternoon and become moderate to heavy later in the day and overnight. Unlike the storm last night, this one has plenty of cold air associated with it and we should transition to our favorable northwest flow Saturday night that will last through Sunday night.
We should see 6-12” of snow by the Sunday morning report, with some occurring Saturday afternoon. Snow showers will continue through the day Sunday and overnight, though diminish in coverage and intensity, with another 3-6” of snow which would be reported Monday morning.
High temperatures in town will fall back below average on a snowy Sunday, and stay there through much of the work week as another storm with colder air is forecast for Tuesday. However, uncertainty is high due to the strongly splitting nature of the next storm and its ultimate trajectory.
So enjoy the nice start to the weekend and the snow for the second half of the weekend, and check back for more details about the early week storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Quick update for more snow tonight
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
It’s cold and grey in Steamboat Springs on the first day of 2025 with temperatures at all elevations around ten degrees at noon, after low temperatures of -5 F in town and -1 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This quick update addresses a stronger and closer wave for tonight than discussed in my last weather narrative on Sunday.
The remnants of an atmospheric river entering the Great Basin in our favorable northwest flow will graze north-central Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Snowfall should pick up around mid-evening, and I now expect 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain by the Thursday morning ski report, with another 2-5” during the day, some of which will fall between the report and the opening of the lifts.
The snowfall will be accompanied by gusty winds up to 40 mph from the west and northwest, which could make travel difficult at times over Rabbit Ears Pass and impact snow quality on the hill. Additionally, the atmosphere will slowly warm during the storm, often adversely affecting snowfall amounts and quality.
Currently, dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast for Friday and half of Saturday before snowfall begins again as early as Saturday afternoon and lasts through Monday. I’ll have more details on the weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Cold air and snow to arrive tonight with the final wave of this storm cycle
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Even though sunny skies appeared for about an hour late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs, overcast skies have returned this mid-afternoon with temperatures in the upper thirties in town and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. The mild weather of the current storm cycle, which began Thursday, will be gone by Monday as the final storm in the series moves overhead tonight and brings more snow, gusty winds and much colder temperatures.
A cold storm that crossed the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday will grow colder today as it moves through the Pacific Northwest and mixes with additional cold air from western Canada. High temperatures in town will fall from about ten degrees above our average of 28 F today to average on Monday and near ten degrees below average on Tuesday as the cold front associated with the storm passes through tonight. Though there may be some light snow showers this evening, moderate to heavy snow showers should develop by around midnight and continue through sunrise, leaving 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain for the Monday morning report.
Unfortunately, winds with gusts as high as 60 mph along and behind the front will make travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass from midnight into Monday morning as the low-density snow will be easy to blow around.
Though most of the snowfall will be over Monday morning, afternoon and evening snow showers in favorable cold and moist northwest flow may leave another 2-5” on the hill which would be reported on a relatively cold Tuesday morning with temperatures in town falling to below the average of 4 F.
Mostly cloudy skies with some light snow showers may hang around on Tuesday before a reinforcing wave of cold air arrives on New Year’s Eve, bringing a frigid start to the first day of 2025 with low temperatures in the negative single digits, and perhaps negative teens in the favorable low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley.
Some sun and a warming atmosphere will help high temperatures in town rebound to near-average on New Year’s Day before another Pacific storm in northwest flow grazes our area starting Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts by Thursday morning currently look to be in the 3-6” range with additional snow showers possible during the day, though the strength of the wave is still uncertain so there may be more or less than that.
A brief ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the West late in the workweek ahead of the next possible storm for around next weekend. So get out today and shovel what remains of the maritime snow before it freezes solid on Monday, enjoy the fresh snow tomorrow, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the possible weekend storm.
Big snows on the way
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Skies are overcast this Thursday at noon and temperatures are in the low thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Four Pacific disturbances are forecast to pass through our area from this afternoon through Monday bringing significant snowfall to all elevations and colder temperatures by Monday.
Yesterday’s storm ended up leaving only a couple of inches at mid-mountain and three inches up top, due to it traveling further south than forecast on Sunday. Splitting storms are always a forecast challenge due to the difficulty in predicting the eventual track and strength of the storm, which the weather forecast models only got right on Tuesday.
That should not be a problem with the upcoming series of storms as they pass overhead in our favorable northwest flow and are lifted by the Park Mountain Range barrier just to our east. Four waves traveling along the southern boundary of a sprawling low pressure area that extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia have incorporated rich subtropical moisture, forming so-called atmospheric rivers that will begin affecting our area this afternoon.
That forms a trifecta of favorable conditions for moderate to heavy snow, thanks to plentiful moisture, storm energy and orographic, or terrain-driven lifting of the air mass in winds from the northwest. What is missing is the cold air, which won’t be here until early next week, resulting in snow-liquid water ratios on the hill starting in the upper teens through Friday and falling to the low teens by Sunday afternoon before rebounding back to the upper teens by Sunday night.
Along with up to several inches during the day today, the first wave should bring 6-12” of snow at mid-mountain for the Friday morning ski report, with snowfall rates approaching an inch per hour at times tonight, making travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass. Snows should lessen or maybe even stop for a short time Friday morning before the second wave brings moderate to heavy snowfall lasting through midnight on Friday, with snowfall rates at times over an inch per hour. Winds will also pick up, gusting to around 50 mph Friday evening and making travel even more difficult. Another 6-12” is expected on this hill by the Saturday morning report.
A shallow ridge of high pressure moves overhead from Saturday through Sunday afternoons, but thanks to a third wave of moisture traveling through the ridge, snowfall may not completely stop, especially on the hill, with any low-level precipitation possibly a rain-snow mix during this warm part of this storm cycle. Snowfall will also become denser during the day Saturday and through Sunday, with snowfall amounts dependent upon the eventual strength of the ridge, with another 3-6” possible for the Sunday morning report.
The fourth and final wave in this storm cycle will bring additional snow for around Monday, though there is uncertainty around whether this starts Sunday night or early Monday. Early indications are another 5-10” of snow, which will be less dense than what fell during the warm part of the storm and more similar to the beginning. The end of the storm cycle will also usher in much colder temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast and forces cold air from western Canada southward.
An inch of snow has already fallen at mid-mountain during the time it has taken me to write this weather narrative, as shown by Steamboat’s mid-mountain powdercam, so enjoy the storm cycle that could add up to three inches of liquid water to our snowpack, and check back for more details on the final wave in my next regularly scheduled update on Sunday afternoon.
