Heat relief waits till the end of the work week

Sunday, September 4, 2022

Bluebird skies and hot temperatures already above eighty-five degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon, threatening the record high temperature of ninety degrees later today. Summer has emphatically stated it’s not going anywhere this work week as high temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper eighties and perhaps exceed ninety degrees through Thursday before the season’s first cold front brings some relief from the heat for the weekend. Even then, high temperatures are expected to be in the low-eighties which is around five degrees above our average of 76 F.

The deep and cold areas of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay have persisted for most of the summer, parking an expansive ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Rockies. A storm currently moving through the Aleutian Islands from the Sea of Japan is forecast to grab some cold air from the Gulf of Alaska storm early in the work week while also pushing that storm into Canada as it is deflected to our north by the ridge of high pressure overhead.

We will not see any effects from that interaction until the end of the work week as the first cold front of the season is forecast to graze our area and drop high temperatures around ten degrees, which will still leave us about five degrees above our early weekend average of 76 F. Precipitation chances will remain near nil until the cold front arrives.

Even then, current weather forecast models keep us dry, though they are struggling with how much cold air is incorporated into that old Sea of Japan storm since the observational weather network is sparse over oceans. I would expect changes to the forecast strength of the cold front which may also affect the precipitation potential, so stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see how that develops for next weekend.

Hot and dry weather persists through the Labor Day weekend

Thursday, September 1, 2022

Temperatures are already in the mid-eighties under mostly sunny skies early this Thursday afternoon in the Steamboat Springs area. The weather for the long Labor Day weekend features more of the same, with high temperatures approaching record values and near nil chances for rain.

As has been the case for a lot of the summer, a ridge of high pressure over the West is sandwiched between deep areas of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay. While the center of the ridge is currently over the West Coast, cold air currently spilling across the Bering Sea is forecast to kick the Gulf of Alaska storm eastward across the Pacific Northwest this weekend as a new and cold storm forms in its place. The result for our area will be even warmer temperatures for the long Labor Day weekend than the last few days as the ridge moves directly overhead, with the daily high temperature records of 91 F for Friday, Saturday and Monday and 90 F on Sunday approached or even broken. Some passing clouds this afternoon and Friday afternoon may briefly moderate the hot afternoon temperatures.

There is not much change in the weather forecast through midweek other than a degree or two of cooling after the weekend. We could be seeing our first cold front of the season by the end of the next work week as the storm forecast to form in the Gulf of Alaska this weekend eventually interacts with an eastward moving storm currently in the Sea of Japan.

Enjoy the traditional end-of-summer weekend that will likely feel as hot as any day this summer, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where the end of this heat wave should be in better focus.

Hot and dry week ahead

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Temperatures have cooled from the upper seventies into the low and mid-seventies as clouds and even a few raindrops overspread the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday mid-afternoon. While there may be a chance for a passing shower later Wednesday, the upcoming week is looking sunny, hot and dry with high temperatures in the mid to upper eighties.

A storm currently located in the Dakatos has dragged a weak cool front through our area this afternoon, turning our winds to be from the southwest to the west and bringing some passing showers overhead. Today looks to be the most active day through this work week and the long Labor Day weekend as a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West.

There may be a chance for a passing shower later Wednesday as a piece of the storm currently in the Dakotas was left behind off the coast of California and formed an eddy. That eddy is forecast to eventually move overhead ahead of another storm currently forming in the Gulf of Alaska, but moisture is quite limited.

Otherwise, the ridge of high pressure is forecast to amplify over the West this week and suppress the plume of monsoonal moisture that has been with us for almost the entire summer well to the south. The end result will be high temperatures running as much as ten degrees above our average of 78 F along with sunny skies and clear crisp nights.

As this weather is forecast to continue through the long Labor Day weekend, there is a possibility that the daily record high for one of the days over the weekend may be broken, though the current forecast has us staying just below the 90 F record on Sunday and 91 F record on Friday, Saturday and Labor Day. The calendar says we won’t have many summery weeks left, so enjoy what should be the quintessential Colorado summer weather this week and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see if this forecasts persists.

Meager rain chances best on Friday and Sunday

Thursday, August 25, 2022

Cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-seventies are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. A couple of storm systems passing to our north on Friday and Sunday will give us our best chance for meager rainfall, with Saturday looking like the sunniest day of the weekend.

The northern half of the ridge of high pressure that was over the West this week has gone missing thanks to a storm system currently moving east across northern Idaho. But the clockwise circulation around the remaining southern half of the high pressure has allowed monsoonal moisture from the southwest to move overhead, creating the cloudy skies. Storm chances are slim today, but slightly better tomorrow as the Idaho storm moves into Montana. We could see some afternoon and evening showers as the southern end of that storm combines with a disturbance in the monsoon flow currently near Las Vegas.

Saturday looks mostly sunny and dry with temperatures around our average of eighty degrees before the upstream storm system responsible for pushing the Idaho storm eastward crosses the Gulf of Alaska and takes a similar track, but slightly further south. We should see a grazing cool front on Sunday afternoon which will drop temperatures by several degrees and increase winds from the west. There may be some showers ahead of the storm overnight Saturday and later Sunday, though those chances currently are slim.

The ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebound over the West following the weekend disturbances with sunny weather and high temperatures exceeding eighty degrees for the work week. This currently looks to extend through the long Labor Day weekend, but stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll have any updates for the traditional end-of-summer weekend.

Summer returns after a fall-like weekend

Sunday, August 21, 2022

After a morning of light rain, a mix of sun and clouds is over the Steamboat Springs area with temperatures in the upper sixties, lending a fall-like feel to the weather. But summer returns for at least the first half of the week with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures around eighty degrees, perhaps followed by another monsoonal surge of moisture to close out the work week.

An eddy of low pressure in western Colorado is currently trapped under a high pressure system over much of the West. The eddy is forecast to slowly move to the southeast through Monday morning before passing into New Mexico by the afternoon. Any showers this afternoon and evening will be moving generally from east to west, opposite of the normal storm motion, as winds move counter-clockwise around the eddy, especially later in the day.

By Monday, the eddy will be far enough removed from north-central Colorado that winds will turn to be more from the north as air follows a clockwise rotation around the still dominant western high pressure system. Expect drier air bringing mostly sunny skies with high temperatures several degrees above our average high of eighty degrees along with a slight chance of a passing storm in the afternoon or evening through Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a storm currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to penetrate the western ridge of high pressure and loiter over Washington State through the beginning of the week before being pushed eastward by some energy ejecting out of a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska. While the eddy is forecast to travel across the northern tier of states, it will be close enough so that the southerly flow ahead of the storm will once again carry monsoonal moisture from the south over our area. So right now, good chances for more wetting rains occur on Thursday and Friday before another brief drying tend is advertised for the following weekend.

That the current eddy over Colorado and the one forecast to form over Washington are penetrating the ridge of high pressure rather than being deflected around it is a sure sign that fall is coming. This is certainly not to say that some hot days are not still ahead, but the cold air from the northern latitudes is growing colder each day, and eventually a storm will blast through the ridge of high pressure rather than just meandering through it. So enjoy another summery work week, and check back on Thursday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative.

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8 September 2018

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