Seasonable summertime weather this week
Sunday, July 15, 2018
A weak cool front that passed through the Steamboat Springs area earlier this Sunday brought some brief and very light showers around noon, along with a welcome cool down in temperatures. After some clearing behind the front, we may see another chance of showers later today in the light westerly flow.
The incoming Pacific wave discussed in the last forecast verified on the slower side, likely keeping Monday dry with seasonable temperatures but bringing a chance of showers for Tuesday.
Behind the quick-moving Pacific storm, a ridge of high pressure builds again over the Desert Southwest during the next week, bringing dry weather and hot temperatures back to our area starting on Wednesday.
Another Pacific storm traveling well to our north may provide for a small chance of showers later Thursday as it temporarily flattens the western ridge of high pressure, and we may see some cooler temperatures closer to average on Friday as the grazing storm moves eastward.
The weekend currently looks to be on the dry and warm side as our weather stays firmly under control of the Desert Southwest ridge of high pressure.
There is a hint of the reestablishment of moist monsoonal flow from the south beyond next weekend as the ridge crawls eastward, though at this point the best activity looks to say further to our south.
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Drying trend heading into the weekend
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Some drier air filtering into the Steamboat Springs area this afternoon behind a weak cool front will reduce the chances of afternoon storms through this weekend before they increase again early next week.
But first, Steamboat Springs experienced some fairly dramatic weather the last two days as infrequent westward moving thunderstorms brought brief heavy rain, small hail, and some impressive gust fronts that dropped the temperature by 25 degrees F in about an hour. I have reproduced the new tool on the SnowAalrm home page below that shows the precipitous temperature drops in blue associated with each storm. These drops in temperature on the 10th, highlighted by the blue dot, and 11th are quite apparent when compared to the hot afternoon of the 9th.
Back to the forecast, a weak cool front currently traveling through the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday will continue the chance of showers this afternoon and evening, though the threat of rain is lower than the last few days as drier air filters in behind the front. We will still see at least some chance of our normal summertime afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the weekend before chances increase again early in the work week courtesy of another Pacific wave of energy that will travel near or over our area.
There is some uncertainty with respect to the speed of the incoming Pacific storm and its southern extent, but right now there is an increased chance of showers during Monday and Monday night as the small storm moves through. A slower movement would push the higher chances storm chances to Tuesday.
A building ridge of high pressure to our west will likely bring a return to hot and dry conditions for the rest of the work week as it moves eastward over the Rocky Mountains, with a chance of some moisture returning around the following weekend as the ridge moves east of our area.
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Best chance of wetting rains on Wednesday and Thursday
Sunday, July 8, 2018
The dominant ridge of high pressure over most of the country will keep the hot temperatures around in Steamboat Springs through Monday and part of Tuesday before a good chance of wetting rains and cooler temperatures arrives midweek. Then, along with the return of hot temperatures heading into next weekend, the chances for showers will again decrease.
But first, similar to yesterday, this Sunday will have a chance of afternoon and evening showers as some moisture remains trapped under the western portion of the ridge. Precipitation chances diminish on Monday and possibly Tuesday as the ridge and its associated trapped moisture is pushed eastward by a Pacific storm forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast Monday night.
Though the storm is forecast to travel well to our north along the Canadian border, a weak cool front passing through northern Colorado may allow for the possibility of some showers later Tuesday and overnight.
By Wednesday, the weak cool front looks to conspire with a wave of energy moving westward from the southern Mississippi Valley along the southern periphery of the ridge, and bring cooler temperatures closer to average for Wednesday and Thursday along with a good chance of wetting rains.
The cooler temperatures for midweek will warm starting Friday and the weekend as drier air is advertised by some weather forecast models to follow behind the departing cool front. Unfortunately, this also looks to minimize any chances for further precipitation, though subtle changes in the forecast ridge position may allow for some chances during the weekend.
For those not visiting the SnowAlarm site regularly, I’d like to also draw your attention to some added functionality on the home page which shows the past three days of temperature, relative humidity and wind from the Bob Adams airport here in Steamboat Springs, as well as some other surrounding stations. Refer to my last blog post for more details and a way to view your favorite locations.
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Some moisture finally arrives
Thursday, July 5, 2018
Contrary to my last forecast, some moisture has arrived over the Steamboat Springs area courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure that has moved eastward over the central U.S. Clockwise flow around this high pressure has has carried Gulf of Mexico moisture first westward into New Mexico and eastern Colorado and then northward over the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The moisture will be enough to finally bring the chance of afternoon and evening showers to our area starting on this Thursday.
Several waves of Pacific energy moving well to our north will periodically deform the ridge of high pressure over the next couple of weeks, with subtle changes in the strength and position of the high pressure moderating the chance of afternoon and evening showers.
Timing of these waves has already proven to be quite difficult, but right now we may see a decrease in chances for late-day showers on Friday and Saturday before they increase again by later Sunday in advance of another one of these Pacific waves.
A decrease in shower activity is currently advertised for Monday and Tuesday afternoons before another Pacific wave moves to our north around midweek and increases shower chances for Wednesday.
Though another decrease in late-day shower chances may occur for the end of the work week, moisture does look to hang around with increasing shower chances heading into next weekend as a more robust southwestern monsoon signal is forecast to send moisture and energy northward from Mexico.
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Seasonable temperatures with some moisture midweek
Sunday, July 1, 2018
A fairly quiet weather week is forecast for Steamboat Springs with some moisture arriving around Independence Day that may yield some clouds and a small chance of showers. Otherwise seasonable temperatures are forecast to become hot before cooling again for the weekend.
The cold front that blasted through Steamboat Springs around 12:30 pm Saturday dropped the temperature from 68 F to 57 F in about 2 hours, which is impressive during the hottest part of the summer when we had above 90 F temperatures only two days before. Unfortunately, there was very little moisture associated with the front as only a few very large raindrops from melted hail fell.
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will prevail for the rest of today, Monday and Tuesday before an expansive and hot ridge of high pressure elongates westward from the East Coast through midweek. Some moisture is drawn northward along the western periphery of the ridge and will bring some clouds and a small chance of showers for Independence Day.
The small amount of moisture erodes on what is forecast to be a dry Thursday and Friday as temperatures soar to above normal when the ridge of high pressure moves over the southwestern states.
Though the dry forecast extends through at least next weekend, temperatures look to moderate back towards seasonable levels as an incoming Pacific storm traveling along the Canadian border drags some cooler air across the northern U.S.
Earlier forecasts had indicated the southwestern monsoon might be starting this week, but current longer term forecasts have backed away from that scenario. For what its worth, they currently indicate some monsoon-like moisture moving into the southwestern U.S. near the end of the following week as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the southwest.
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