Warm and wet Friday ahead of next splitting storm Monday
Thursday, March 22, 2018
A ridge of high pressure rests over the spine of the Rocky Mountains today, and moisture traveling through this ridge will keep warm temperatures and clouds over the Steamboat Springs area on this Thursday. Meanwhile, a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska has kicked what was once part of this past Monday’s 16” storm, which was loitering between Hawaii and the West Coast, eastward, bringing another round of significant precipitation to the Sierras overnight and leaving 30” at Mammoth Mountain.
The old storm will cross the Great Basin today and affect the weather over our area on Friday, validating the slower European ECMWF solution advertised in my last forecast. While temperatures will be warm enough for rain showers to the top of Mt. Werner in advance of the storm in breezy southwest flow, most of the precipitation looks to hold off until the storm moves over our area sometime between sunrise and noon on Friday and drags a weak cool front across our area.
Showers will intensify as the front moves through, becoming moderate to heavy for a time, and bringing snow showers down to the Yampa Valley floor. We do see some some moist northwest flow behind the storm for some of Friday, and that should keep snow showers going through the day at the higher elevations as they end at the lower elevations.
I don’t expect much, if any, snowfall to be reported by Friday morning, but we will see some accumulating snowfall during the day. Snowfall amounts at mid-mountain are tricky to forecast due to the warm springtime temperatures, but 2-5” of relatively dense snow there, with higher amounts at higher elevations, are possible.
The Gulf of Alaska storm moves inland over the weekend, and turns our winds back to the southwest. There is some drier air in this southwest flow, and northern Colorado will be between the driest air to our south and moistest air to our north. We should see a generally pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures and some sun and clouds.
Meanwhile, the once promising Gulf of Alaska storm splits late in the weekend, with the southern piece staying to our west and diving southward across Nevada while the northern piece translates across the northern third of the U.S.
The end result is our area will be mostly between the storms, and Monday and Tuesday will feature a small battle between the southerly flow ahead of the storm to our south and northerly flow behind the storm to our north. While Monday looks to stay mostly dry, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday are more uncertain as the amount of energy split between the northern and southern storms will end up determining our weather.
In any case, a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast midweek, and this should provide a break in our active weather. However, we may still be susceptible to passing showers as storms travel down the east side of the ridge of high pressure and possibly graze our area.
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Unsettled week starts with our next storm Sunday
Saturday, March 17, 2018
The second part of a complex storm has just pounded the Sierras, with over 40” of snow being reported over the last day at Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows. The storm will evolve as most of it moves eastward across the Great Basin today, bringing a strong cold front through the Steamboat Springs area around noon on Sunday. This is at least twelve hours later than my last update, so there is no need for powderhounds to set the alarm. However, travelers may want to get their skiing in early as travel will likely become difficult again after the cold front passes, similar to last Thursday.
The storm has a lot going for it, including instability, intensification as it eventually moves east of our area, cold air, moisture and northwest flow, which is ideal for the Park Mountain Range where the Steamboat Ski Area is situated.
We will likely see periods of heavy snow Sunday afternoon during and after the cold front passes, with 2-4” of relatively dense snow expected by the time the lifts stop turning. Snows will continue overnight with an additional 3-6” of increasingly light and fluffy snow.
We may also see some Steamboat Magic Monday morning, where there is accumulations between report time and ski time, before snows decrease towards noon as temperatures rise. However, another weak piece of the storm moves overhead after noon, likely increasing showers again before they end for a time Monday night. I hate to use such a large range of snowfall estimates for an entire day, but we could see 1-4” of before noon on Monday and another 1-4” of snow for later in the day.
Though temperatures will warm starting Tuesday after a chilly start to the day, more moisture will be carried over or just north of our area by a leftover piece of the storm from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. If the moisture is far enough south, we may see some clouds and the possibility of some snow showers, with accumulations most likely at higher elevations and closer to the Wyoming border.
Meanwhile, another storm, warmer and wetter than the previous storms, takes shape off the West Coast early in the work week and is forecast to move inland around midweek. The American GFS is faster than the European ECMWF, perhaps by a lot, bringing clouds and showers to our area as early as Thursday morning.
Unfortunately, the storm will start off quite warm, and the relatively low elevation of Steamboat means rain showers at the lower elevations and snow showers at the higher elevations during the day. Incidentally, our low elevation, while providing for relatively long mountain summers, also means March is not our snowiest month, as is the case for most of the higher elevation Colorado ski resorts.
Snow levels should lower to the Yampa Valley bottom overnight Thursday, if the faster American GFS solution ends up closer to being correct. While we generally do not do well with the predominantly southwest winds forecast for the storm, we could pick up significant accumulations later Thursday and into Friday as the coldest part of the storm moves over our area.
Uncertainty increases for next weekend as the American GFS advertises a break in the weather while the European ECMWF keeps colder and more unsettled weather over our region.
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Update on the storm
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
The complex storm spinning off the West Coast will still affect the Steamboat Springs area weather in pieces, though a larger piece is now forecast for Thursday. We will still see the possibility for high elevations snow showers and low elevation rain showers overnight tonight as one piece of ejecting energy skirts to our northwest, though accumulations look meager at best.
But a stronger piece of the storm will affect our area later Thursday with a weak cool front, which is a change from my last forecast. Timing is still uncertain, though Thursday afternoon or evening is currently forecast, and precipitation should turn to snow in the Yampa Valley when the front passes.
As we are entering the spring months, the sun is higher in the sky and warms the surface more strongly than in the winter months. The warmer surface temperatures combined with the forecast cool front may allow the precipitation to organize in cells, similar to summertime afternoon thunderstorms, and this means spottier precipitation, with some areas receiving more and adjacent areas less.
All of this makes forecasting snow amounts difficult, but 2-5” by the Friday morning report is a good guess.
We still see a break for later Friday and at least part of Saturday with warming temperatures before the last piece of the storm approaches later Saturday. The American GFS is faster than the European ECMWF, bringing the possibility of high elevation snow showers and low elevation rain showers into our area as soon as Saturday afternoon.
This last piece of the storm will be the strongest and coldest, bringing a moderate cold front through the area Saturday night or Sunday. The snow will be heaviest along and just behind the front, with snow showers waxing and waning through Sunday and continuing during the day Monday in cool temperatures and northwest flow, as some trailing energy passes over our area.
I expect significant accumulations for Sunday and Monday, with storm totals over those two days in the 6-12” range.
Tuesday will offer a break before a warmer storm approaches our area around Wednesday.
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Unsettled weather ahead of our next storm starts Thursday
Sunday, March 11, 2018
A ridge of high pressure has built over the western states, bringing a beautiful warm and sunny Sunday to the Steamboat Springs area. A weak and splitting storm moving through this ridge will weaken further by Monday as it passes through our area, and we may see some clouds during the day, with a small chance of non-accumulating snow showers by Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a large and impressive storm approaches the West Coast early in the work week. The ridge of high pressure over the western states first strengthens on Tuesday and part of Wednesday ahead of the storm, bringing warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
But as early as Wednesday afternoon, and certainly by Thursday, the Ides of March, energy and moisture ejecting out of the West Coast storm will bring clouds and showers to our area. The amount of ejecting energy and its southern extent will likely determine the snow levels, but low-elevation rain showers are currently a possibility.
Weather forecast models have struggled mightily with the evolution of the West Coat storm, and forecast confidence has not increased over the last few days, as model differences persist. Right now, a break in the weather is advertised between the ejecting energy on Thursday and the main storm, which is now forecast to cross the Great Basin around Saturday and arrive in our area around Sunday.
I hope to have better clarity by my upcoming Thursday post, but at this point, Friday may see some clouds and even an isolated shower as the ejecting energy departs the area. We may see some drying and warming for Saturday ahead of the main storm, though there will still likely be some clouds ahead of the main event advertised for the end of the weekend.
It is too soon to talk about the details of the Sunday storm, other than it may slow down and it will likely be significant. For what it’s worth, further storms are forecast to be lined up in the Pacific for more snow chances following the late-weekend storm.
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Light snow chances Saturday and early next week
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Ahead of a small storm for Saturday, the Steamboat Springs area will see warm and mostly sunny weather for today and Friday, though there may be some clouds ahead of the storm by Friday afternoon.
That storm is currently affecting the Pacific Northwest, and looks to bring cooling temperatures and snow showers to our area early on Saturday. There may be an inch by the Saturday morning report, but the strongest part of this weak storm is forecast to occur mid-morning, with another several inches possible, before skies clear behind the departing storm later in the day.
Sunday will start chilly, but plenty of sun and warming temperatures should make for a beautiful day.
Meanwhile, a large, cold and very impressive storm forms between Hawaii and the West Coast early in the work week. This storm will kick some loitering energy and moisture in that area eastward, leading to the possibility of showers for our area later Monday and part of Tuesday. The southwest flow ahead of the large storm will keep the warm temperatures around, so any precipitation that falls will be liquid below about mid-mountain.
Quickly following for midweek will be energy and moisture ejecting out of the large and slowly-moving-eastward West Coast storm. The exact timing will likely change in future forecasts, but right now, low elevation rain and high elevation snow showers are expected for later Wednesday and Thursday.
The evolution of the West Coast storm is hotly debated by the weather forecast models, and it is not clear if the storm will move inland mostly intact or in pieces. However, both the European ECMWF and the American GFS have additional upstream energy moving in behind the storm, indicating the possibility of a week of stormy weather starting near the end of the work week.
Save your soles! If you do any walking in your ski boots on hard surfaces, then you know the grating and grinding sounds you hear can’t be good. In fact, worn boot soles make your binding unsafe as it interferes with the boot-binding interface. Cat Tracks
