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Warm and dry until moisture returns near the end of the weekend

Thursday, July 4, 2019

The Steamboat Springs area is currently experiencing a beautiful warm, dry and sunny Independence Day. More of the same is expected through most of the long Fourth of July weekend before precipitation chances increase for later Sunday and Monday. The chances decrease for a couple of days before increasing again toward the end of the workweek and heading into the following weekend.

Counterclockwise flow around a strong and cold storm centered near Vancouver has brought warm and dry southwest flow to our area. While cold air from western Canada and additional incoming Pacific energy will periodically energize the storm over the next few days, a ridge of high pressure building northwestward from the Louisiana coast into Texas and the Rocky Mountains will keep any weather associated with the storm at bay. So the warm and dry days and cool nights will continue through the first half of the weekend.

By later Sunday, clockwise flow around the Texas ridge of high pressure will carry some moisture from the Mexican Plateau northward as the light winds turn to be more from the south. This pattern is representative of the beginnings of the North American Monsoon, and there will be increasing chances for showers from later Sunday through Monday.

Meanwhile, part of the Vancouver storm will move eastward across the northern Rockies early in the workweek and suppresses the Texas ridge of high pressure southward. Drier air will return for Tuesday and Wednesday as the winds turn back to southwesterly or even westerly.

The old Vancouver storm is then forecast to travel east of the northern Rocky Mountains around midweek, allowing the Texas ridge to rebuild to the west and northwest. The strong summer sun will allow the ridge of high pressure to prevail over any storminess to our northwest, and the North American monsoon looks to become better established over mostly New Mexico and Colorado. The forecast moisture over our area will increase precipitation chances for the end of the work week and the following weekend, with a stronger and wetter monsoon signature forecast by some weather forecast models for the following workweek.

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