Best shower chances this Sunday and Monday

Sunday, July 7, 2019

The sunny skies this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs have given way to increasing clouds as moisture moves over our area in southwest flow. Showers will be possible later today and again tomorrow before drying occurs on Tuesday. The dry air will stick around through the workweek along with our warmest temperatures of the summer so far, before moisture returns around the weekend.

Currently, we are seeing increased moisture in the southwest flow ahead of a cold storm near Vancouver. There will be a chance of afternoon and evening showers today and again Monday before the Vancouver storm travels across Montana on Tuesday and drags a weak cool front through our area. The air will cool and dry as we see breezy westerly winds, keeping high temperatures on Tuesday comfortably below our average of 81 F.

But as the storm travels eastward across the northern U.S. border through the workweek, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Rocky Mountains starting on Wednesday. Temperatures will be the warmest of the summer so far, with high temperatures around five degrees or so above average and almost no chance of rain through Thursday.

By Friday, additional incoming Pacific energy flattens the ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, and this is important for our area as subtle changes in the position and strength of the ridge influence the fetch of moisture from the south associated with the North American Monsoon. But these subtle differences make for a tough forecast as relatively minor changes in the upper level flow may mean the difference between a wet and dry prediction.

With that said, shower chances are currently advertised to return around Friday. Though a ribbon of dry air is forecast to be just to our north through the following weekend, if that stays to our north as currently forecast by some weather prediction models, then the chance for showers will continue through the weekend and into the following workweek.