Small chance of showers to briefly interrupt more summery weather
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Temperatures are already near 70 degrees under sunny skies in Steamboat Springs on this Sunday at noon. Other than a brief increase in cloudiness early in the workweek, with a small chance of a shower, our summery stretch of weather will continue into next weekend. Soak up the summery weather now, however, as an abrupt change to more seasonable weather may occur soon after.
The fall color spectacle has been great this year, despite its late arrival and the warnings of dull color. Leaves above 9.000′ are falling as the color migrates to the lower elevations.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is responsible for this stretch of spectacular weather. A weak area of low pressure approaching the central California coast is forecast to cross the Great Basin through Tuesday, though the clouds and only a slight chance of a shower will not keep high temperatures from the mid-70s, above our 65-degree average.
Differences between some of the short-range models mean clouds may arrive as soon as late Monday, with clearing afterwards, or as late as late Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday, with the later arrival perhaps accompanied by a slight chance of a shower.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies return for the rest of the workweek, with the beautiful weather extending into at least the start of next weekend. However, changes occurring in the Eastern Pacific this week portend changes occurring over our area by mid-weekend, or early the following workweek.
A wave in the jet stream ahead of the northeastward-moving Super Typhoon Choi-Wan off the southeast coast of Japan will strengthen as cold Arctic air pours through the Bering Straight. The wave will elongate and split near the Dateline by midweek, move through the Gulf of Alaska, and approach the Pacific Northwest coast by early in the weekend. Additionally, Hurricane Rachel, southwest of Baja, may also interact with the incoming storm after it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast.
While the ridge of high pressure over the West will offer some resistance, the incoming storm will eventually win, bringing below-average temperatures and a chance of the season’s first snowfall above mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort. Lots of moving pieces need to interact before any certainty can be added to the forecast, which I hope to have in time for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Until then, get outside and enjoy the certainty of another summery week, accompanied by the bedazzling fall color spectacle.
Gorgeous weekend ahead
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Temperatures in the low 70s and mostly sunny skies are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. The lovely weather will continue through the weekend, lasting through at least Monday.
High pressure over California will move slowly east through the weekend, crossing the Continental Divide around Monday. Mostly sunny skies will bring warming temperatures through the weekend, cresting 75 degrees by Sunday, around 10 degrees above our declining 65-degree average.
The NOAA smoke model shows wildfire smoke from the Dome fire near Yosemite, which started September 15th, approaching our area by Saturday morning, with hazy skies possible, but not certain.
| Steamboat Springs 2026 | Observed precipitation | Average precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| May | 3.51” | 2.65” |
| June | 0.43” | 1.58” |
| July | 2.24” | 1.72” |
| August | 2.77” | 1.80” |
| September | 3.07” | 2.32” |
| Total | 12.02” | 10.07” |
The quiet forecast allows some space to discuss the relatively wet summer from May through September, though most people I talk to are surprised to hear we were not well below average, as they remember the July and August heat more than the precipitation. And hot it was, with the 29 days of 90-degree-or-above temperatures this summer tying the record set in 2002.
July had 17 days at or above 90 degrees, including a scorching stretch of 11 days between July 11th and July 21st, contributing to the hottest month ever since record-keeping started in 1893, and an additional 12 days in August. But that did not stop some showers, some intense and some more gentle and long-lasting, from bringing a foot of water from May through September to the town, 20% above the 10” average, as indicated in the table.
October will start warm and dry, with a small chance of some showers appearing around Tuesday. So enjoy the gorgeous weekend, highlighted by the stunning colors of the changing foliage, and I’ll have more details on the possible incoming storm and the likely return to dry, warm weather for the rest of the workweek, which may last through the following weekend.
