Snowfall continues with a short break around Tuesday
Sunday, December 25, 2022
Temperatures are around thirty degrees under cloudy skies this noon on Christmas Day in the Steamboat Springs area. Snow showers will continue through Monday, especially at the higher elevations, before the precipitation briefly stops from Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. The sun may may make a brief appearance for the first half of Tuesday before another significant storm cycle begins Tuesday night and lasts through Thursday.
A large and complex area of low pressure is currently extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward Hawaii and westward toward the Kamchatka Peninsula. Additionally, a very moist ribbon of air from the tropics and subtropics, called an atmospheric river, is being carried toward the West Coast along the southern periphery of the low pressure area.
A shallow ridge of high pressure ahead of the low pressure area has built over the West Coast, and waves of Pacific energy traveling down the east side of the ridge have brought the small amounts of snowfall to our area since Friday. The last wave is timed to traverse the area tonight, with the best chance of accumulating snowfall occurring in the few-degrees-cooler air behind the wave. I would expect 1-4” of snowfall to be reported on the Monday morning mid-mountain ski report.
I will note that I experienced some freezing precipitation yesterday afternoon near the top of the hill as the relatively shallow moist layer and warming atmosphere ahead of the ridge of high pressure conspired to keep snowflakes from forming. This left liquid cloud drops with temperatures below freezing, or super-cooled water, to instantly freeze on any surface it contacted, like goggles, trees and the snow surface. While we may still see some of that this afternoon, likely mixed in with some snow, it should change to all snow tonight as a weak cool front is dragged through our area by the passing wave.
In any event, snowfall should briefly end from Monday night through most of Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure is pushed eastward and over our area by the incoming Pacific storm, with even some sunshine possible Tuesday morning. But the break in snowfall will be brief as the low pressure system begins to move over our area in pieces through the work week and next weekend.
The storm will start warm, with even some rain possible in town Tuesday afternoon and night, so snow densities will be high on the mountain, and we could see 2-5” of relatively heavy dense snow by the Wednesday morning ski report. One piece of the low pressure area over the Pacific is forecast to move overhead later Wednesday, and the cooler air associated with that wave should allow for 4-8” of somewhat less dense snowfall in favorable northwest flow by the Thursday morning report.
Snowfall is forecast to taper off on Thursday with an additional 1-4”, but unfortunately before the coldest air of the storm arrives on Thursday night. It’s not very cold, but we could see the mountain-top high temperatures drop from the high twenties on Wednesday into the teens by Friday.
Another brief break in snowfall is expected from Thursday night into Friday before additional waves of energy and moisture ejecting out of the the still-evolving Pacific low pressure area are forecast to continue snowfall into and possibly through New Years weekend. Be sure to check back Thursday afternoon when I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative.
Warming temperatures with a chance for more snow this weekend
Thursday, December 22, 2022
The frigid temperatures today in the Steamboat Springs area have reached 3 F in town and -10 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort this Thursday mid-afternoon under sunny skies. After a bitterly cold Friday morning at all elevations, temperatures will warm through the Christmas weekend and the beginning of the following week as the arctic air vacates our area and follows the departing storm eastward across the country. Despite the warming, we will see chances for light snow from Friday night into possibly Monday.
Though the cold air did not disappoint with this arctic outbreak, snowfall ended up being on the light side with only four inches recorded at mid-mountain and up top for the morning ski report, in addition to the 3” at mid-mountain and 4” up top reported Wednesday morning.
The narrow ridge of high pressure currently extending from the eastern Pacific across Alaska and into the Arctic Circle, which directed the arctic air southward over our area last night, is in the process of being undercut by Pacific energy. This will not only direct the arctic air eastward to torment the rest of the country, but will also allow for warming temperatures for our area through the beginning of next week.
Between the departing storm and a huge area of low pressure currently centered over the Aleutian Islands, a ridge of high pressure tries to build over the West, though energy and moisture ejecting out of the Aleutian storm will travel through the ridge from later Friday into Monday. Ahead of snow showers starting as early as Friday afternoon or evening, look for a brutally cold night tonight, with low temperatures up top similar to this morning and temperatures in town in the minus teens, and colder than that in the favored low lying areas, especially if clear skies stick around overnight.
But these cold temperatures will quickly moderate on Friday, with high temperatures in the teens in town, which is still around ten degrees below our average of 27 F, and near 10 F up top as the ridge of high pressure approaches our area. But at least three waves of energy will move through the ridge and cross our area in the northwest flow ahead of the ridge between later Friday and Christmas Day, with weather forecast models disagreeing on the strength, moisture content and proximity of all three of these waves.
Generally light snowfall of 1-4” might be expected from any of them between Friday night and Sunday night, with the best snowfall likely during the day Saturday. The moisture embedded in the favorable northwest flow only slowly erodes after Christmas Day, with continued snow showers into Monday and the best chance for clearer skies from later Monday through Tuesday morning.
But the snows are expected to return by midweek, perhaps in a big way, as a chunk of that Aleutian storm is dislodged and finds its way over our area. So enjoy the wintry Christmas weekend, and I’ll be back with more details on the midweek storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Storms for midweek and Christmas weekend
Sunday, December 18, 2022
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-single digits this Sunday mid-morning in the Steamboat Springs area under bluebird skies. Sunny skies today and Monday with continued brisk temperatures will give way to increasing clouds and light snow showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another arctic front follows later Wednesday with significant accumulations expected by Thursday morning along with bitterly cold temperatures. A short break to end the work week will be followed by another round of snows starting later Friday and lasting into Christmas Eve.
My weather station near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort recorded an astonishing -18 F around 8:30 am to start this Sunday, while the temperature near the top of the resort at the Storm Peak Lab was a more reasonable 6 F. Clear skies, fresh snow and light winds allowed the cold air to pool in the Yampa Valley, forming a temperature inversion where the temperature increases with elevation, a relatively common occurrence in high mountain valleys, especially after winter storms.
Temperatures in town will likely stay several degrees below our average high of 27 F despite the sunny skies today and Monday as the low sun angle around the winter solstice, which occurs at 2:47 pm on Wednesday, December 21, conspires with a highly reflective snow surface to limit daytime heating.
After another cold below zero morning on a mostly sunny Monday, increasing clouds Monday night ahead of our next storm system may bring some flurries and keep overnight lows much warmer than the past two days, likely above our average of 4 F, as the clouds insulate the surface like a blanket.
This next storm is currently rounding a sharp ridge of high pressure extending from the east-central Pacific through the Bering Sea and past the Arctic Circle. Bitterly cold air from western Canada will mix with the storm as it travels southward along the eastern side of the ridge of high pressure. Light snow showers in advance of the storm should start later Tuesday and last into Wednesday, bringing 1-4” of snow to mid-mountain for the Wednesday morning ski report.
By later Wednesday, the arctic front associated with the storm will be on our doorstep along with increasing winds, with moderate to heavy snowfall forecast into Thursday morning along with difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass at times. There is some weather forecast model uncertainty with respect to how cold and how much snow we may see, though I am inclined to side with the colder and snowier model solutions and would expect 6-12” of light and dry powder along with high temperatures at the top of the hill below zero, and near zero in town.
We should see a break in the snowfall by Thursday afternoon and into Friday ahead of our next storm currently timed for later Friday into Christmas Eve day. Early indications are that this storm may also be significant and will be accompanied by warmer temperatures as Pacific energy undercuts the Bering Sea ridge of high pressure and severs or at least partially interrupts the arctic tap of cold air.
There is additional weather forecast model uncertainty around the weekend storm, but I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Monster storm departs Friday and leaves arctic air mass behind
Thursday, December 15, 2022
An arctic air mass has brought prodigious amounts of snow and very cold air to the Steamboat Springs area starting last Monday evening, and temperatures in town are currently in the mid-teens with low single digits near the top of Mt. Werner this mid-morning Thursday. A reinforcing wave of cold air this afternoon will continue the snowfall through today and into Friday and bring the coldest temperatures of the storm overhead. Saturday will stay quite cold despite the appearance of the sun with our average temperatures in the upper twenties not returning until Sunday. More average temperatures and dry weather will start the next work week.
What a snowy work week for the Steamboat Springs area! The Steamboat Ski Resort has reported an incredible 36” of snow at mid-mountain and 46” up top from when the storm started on Monday night until this Thursday morning. And during the day yesterday, 17” of snowfall was reported between 5 am and 4 pm up top which fell at rates around one and a half inches per hour for eleven hours!
And it’s still snowing! The center of the monster storm is currently located in the upper Midwest and is affecting almost the entire continent with winter weather. A wave of Pacific energy has mixed with western part of the storm and is expected to bring a reinforcing cold front through our area this afternoon. Expect some good showers and falling temperatures this afternoon as the front moves through, with another 2-5” to be reported at mid-mountain on a very cold Friday, with temperatures up top starting as low as -10 F and staying negative the whole day and overnight.
The town will not escape the very cold temperatures, with high temperatures on Friday only near ten degrees, around fifteen degrees below our average of 27 F, and low temperatures on both Friday and Saturday near -10 F, also around 15 F below our average of 5 F.
High temperatures on Saturday will approach average, but likely remain below it despite the sunshine, with temperatures finally reaching average on Sunday. The work week looks to start similarly, though another snowy pattern may be in our future starting around midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Aleutian Islands and directs cool and moist northwest flow over our area.
There is weather forecast model disagreement over the location of the best northwest flow and embedded Pacific moisture, and the eventual location is critical for significant snow accumulations over our area. I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon with details on the possible reappearance of the snow-making machine.
Long duration winter storm starts Monday
Sunday, December 11, 2022
Temperatures are in the mid-twenties, on their way toward the forties, under bluebird skies late this Sunday morning in the Steamboat Springs area. Enjoy the warmest day of the week today as a powerful winter storm brings very cold temperatures and significant snowfall to our area starting Monday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday. While snowfall will diminish by Thursday, it may or may not end as another wave of cold air later Thursday keeps the chances for additional snowfall around for Friday.
A large and very cold winter storm is almost done pounding the Sierras with precipitation, with three to four feet of snowfall already reported over the past day and a half. Breezy winds from the southwest ahead of the storm today will allow temperatures to climb toward forty degrees by this afternoon, over ten degrees above our average of 28 F. With continued sunny skies, today will be the nicest and warmest day of the week.
The center of the storm is forecast to move through the Great Basin on Monday and cross the Divide overnight Monday, though the storm is so large that we should see the cold front well ahead of the center of the storm system Monday after noon. We should see some good snow showers along and behind the front, with 5-10” expected by the Tuesday morning mid-mountain report, along with much colder temperatures that will struggle to reach twenty degrees in town for the rest of the work week.
By Tuesday morning, the center of the storm should be located near northeast Colorado and is forecast to intensify and move very slowly to the northeast for a time. While winds will subside as the storm moves overhead Monday, likely limiting larger snowfall accumulations by Tuesday morning, winds pick up to be from our favorable northwest direction towards noon on Tuesday.
Crucially, the storm will be large enough to draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico starting Monday night, and the moisture is forecast to circle the storm and be carried over our area by the northwest winds later Tuesday. Combined with the cold and unstable air mass, the resulting orographic, or terrain-driven precipitation should pick up around noon on Tuesday and last into or even through Wednesday.
There is some weather forecast model disagreement on the exact track of the winter storm, so there is uncertainty on how long the deepest moisture will stay around. I would expect 6-12” of additional snowfall at mid-mountain by the Wednesday morning report, with more likely up top.
Snowfall may taper off around Wednesday afternoon if the storm moves further to the northeast, or may continue if the storm stalls as it moves across Nebraska during the day. I’d guess an additional 3-6” by the Thursday morning report, subject to the vagaries of the eventual storm track.
The center of the storm should be around Minnesota on Thursday, leading to a break in the snowfall during the day as the atmosphere dries, but a reinforcing wave of cold air from a storm currently near the Aleutians is forecast to eventually merge with the storm and move overhead from the north around Friday. So expect the cold temperatures to persist through the work week with another round of very low density snowfall to close out the work week.
So enjoy the very cold and snowy work week in what has been already been a cold and snowy start to the ski season, and I’ll be back with my regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
