Thursday, August 31, 2023
Temperatures are nearly eighty five degrees along with breezy winds from the southwest under sunny skies this Thursday mid afternoon. The dry weather this past work week ends ahead of the long Labor Day weekend as modest afternoon shower chances return for Friday and Saturday. Better chances appear Sunday after noon and overnight ahead of our first cold front of the season on Labor Day. Showers may linger on Monday behind the front, or not, depending upon the timing of the front and whether there is some additional trailing energy.
A deepening trough of low pressure is along the West Coast while a storm eddy moves northeast through North Dakota along the top of a summertime ridge of high pressure encompassing most or the U.S., except for the eastern Gulf States. The West Coast trough is forecast to become an eddy and loiter over northern California through mid weekend before additional energy currently over the Aleutian Islands forces the eddy to rejoin the jet stream on Sunday. It then moves eastward across the Great Basin through Monday and is forecast to bring a cold front to our area later Labor Day.
The current breezy afternoon winds thanks to the North Dakota eddy will be gone by tomorrow, but southwest winds ahead of the deepening West Coast trough will draw monsoonal moisture from the south over our area starting on Friday. So look for sunny starts to the day with modest chances for passing afternoon showers on Friday and Saturday.
Precipitation chances increase on Sunday, with showers possible as soon as noon as the West Coast storm begins to move through Nevada. It appears our best chance of showers will be Sunday afternoon and overnight well ahead of the cold front, which should arrive later on Labor Day, but I will have more to say about that timing in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
And for those unable to check my forecast on Sunday, we may see some dry air just ahead of the front to start Labor Day in breezy winds from the southwest, or not, though showery weather may appear behind the front in the cool and unstable flow from the west and northwest. The most notable feature of our first cold front of the season will be the cool temperatures on Monday struggling to reach seventy degrees, which will be five to ten degrees below our average of 78 F for that day, and very noticeable after a weekend of high temperatures with an eight handle.