Unsettled weather ahead of strong Wednesday storm
Sunday, March 10, 2019
After another three inches of snow fell overnight at the Steamboat Ski Area and brought the season-accumulated snowfall at mid-mountain to 303” so far, snow showers will redevelop this Sunday afternoon, as well as Monday, before Tuesday looks precipitation free. A strong and cold storm from the Pacific Northwest will bring significant snows to the Steamboat Springs area on Wednesday that will extend into Thursday before warming and drying is advertised to start on Friday and extend into next weekend.
The light snow currently falling in the Steamboat Springs area is the result of our area being between a large developing storm off the coast of southern California and a quick-moving storm over the Great Lakes. Snow showers will continue this Sunday afternoon before leaving another inch or two and ending soon after sunset as the California storm begins its eastward trek across the Desert Southwest, thanks to a strong and cold storm moving southeastward across the Gulf of Alaska.
As the Desert Southwest storm moves south of our area, another round of minimally accumulating snow showers will be possible Monday afternoon as some energy ejects out of the storm and moves over our area, with likely heavy snows starting in southern Colorado and New Mexico.
Tuesday is now looking precipitation-free as northern Colorado will be between the Desert Southwest storm and the rapidly approaching Pacific Northwest storm, with some dry air near our area allowing for some sunshine.
By Wednesday morning, we should see the return of snow showers behind the Desert Southwest storm and ahead of the Pacific Northwest storm, with showers becoming moderate to heavy by later in the day as a strong cold front barrels across the region.
Snows should continue overnight and into Thursday as the two storm mix just east of the Continental Divide and form a single strong storm that is forecast to move across the Midwest, bringing winter weather to that region and eventually a line of severe storms across the rest of the country.
Though the rapidly developing storm may throw some forecast curveballs, much colder weather with continued snow showers are expected for Thursday in the moist and unstable northwest flow behind the cold front. Snows are forecast to eventually end around Thursday night behind a trailing wave that brings even colder air to our region.
At this point, I would guess 5-10” of snow at mid-mountain for the Thursday morning report, with some Steamboat Magic likely on Thursday extending past noon and leaving another 2-5” that would be reported on the Friday morning report.
A ridge of high pressure builds inland near the end of the work week, and after a chilly Friday morning with lows likely well below our average of 15 F, the sun is forecast to return with temperatures quickly moderating under the increasingly strong March sun.
There are some weak and relatively dry waves of energy that move through the ridge of high pressure early and late in the weekend, but only some clouds are expected to periodically interrupt what is forecast to be our first spring-feeling weekend of this long winter season.
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Colder snow arrives later Friday
Thursday, March 7, 2019
While a a strong and cold storm spins in the Pacific Northwest, Colorado has been under the influence of a warm and very moist airmass from storms that developed over the Pacific between Hawaii and California earlier in the week. Colder air will return our fluffy and low-density snow around Friday afternoon into Saturday morning before the heaviest snowfall ends and warmer temperatures in continued unsettled weather reappear for Sunday through midweek. Temperatures will then cool, but the unsettled weather will persist for the rest of the work week and possibly the following weekend.
After a 7” mid-mountain report and 11” at the summit of the Steamboat Ski Area this Thursday morning, with most of that falling during the day yesterday, we’ll see afternoon snow showers in the slightly cooler and unstable westerly flow that may produce several inches of snow that would be reported Friday morning.
A couple more incoming Pacific storms will mix with the Pacific Northwest storm before what is left of it moves along the U.S. - Canadian border, the first timed to arrive in the Steamboat Springs area Friday and the second mostly missing our area as it first dives southward along the California Coast before moving eastward early in the work week across the U.S. - Mexican border.
The storm arriving Friday will be preceded by snow showers in the morning and will be accompanied by a strong cold front that should bring moderate to heavy snow when it passes Friday afternoon, along with difficult travel conditions and continued light to moderate showers overnight and into Saturday morning. I would expect 6-12” for the Saturday morning report at mid-mountain, with about half that currently forecast to occur while the lifts are spinning and the other half occurring after the lifts stop.
There may be an opportunity for some Steamboat Magic Saturday morning in northwest flow, though a warming atmosphere behind the storm will allow showers to taper off through the day, with only another 1-4” expected.
Meanwhile, as the second storm develops along the California Coast, more unsettled weather along with warmer temperatures are advertised for Sunday, with only light accumulations expected.
As the storm initially is well south of northern Colorado on Monday, not much weather is expected, but by Tuesday, another incoming Pacific storm forces the storm to our south to move to the northeast, and there may be the opportunity for better precipitation as the storm grazes our area. At this point, there is a fair bit of uncertainty with respect to the proximity of the storm and the location of precipitation, but weather forecast models agree the relatively warm temperatures from Sunday will stick around for Monday and Tuesday as well.
By Wednesday, cooler weather returns as the last storm moves into the Great Basin and brings more unsettled weather that will last for the rest of the work week and possibly into next weekend. Weather forecast models try to bring a ridge of high pressure that forms over the Gulf of Alaska inland, though they they disagree on exactly how that will happen. At some point around next weekend or the following work week, we may finally see the appearance of some spring-like days.
Start your ski day with toasty warm and dry boots! I use a boot dryer/warmer after every ski day, and the Happy Feet Dry-n-Warm boot dryer would be my choice if I ever had to replace my 30 year old and no-longer-manufactured look-alike. Just insert into your ski boots at the end of the day and leave them plugged in overnight. They become only slightly warmer than your body temperature so are safe to be plugged in for all footwear for days on end, though only overnight is needed for even the soggiest of liners. The ski boots are then thoroughly dry and toasty warm to start your next ski day!
A brief break in the weather before snowfall resumes Wednesday
Sunday, March 3, 2019
The current storm is winding down in Steamboat Springs this Sunday afternoon after leaving around 2 feet of snow at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Area over the last two days. Our area will see a brief respite in the winter weather on Monday and Tuesday before a couple of Pacific storms brings snowfall back to our area by midweek that could last into next weekend.
Currently, bands of snow showers are expected to hang around near our area this afternoon and evening with another 1-4” of snow possible, depending on the location and persistence of the snow bands. Cooler air will continue to filter in through the overnight this Sunday as the snowfall moves south of our area, leading to a chilly start to Monday morning, especially if the skies clear.
The sun is expected to reappear on Monday and Tuesday as temperatures return to seasonable levels on Monday with further warming on Tuesday, even after another chilly start to the day as a dry cool front passes by Monday night.
Meanwhile, our next weather-maker is spinning well off the California coast underneath a persistent ridge of high pressure located over the Gulf of Alaska. Snow showers producing relatively heavy high-density snow could start as early Tuesday night as a lobe of energy and moisture is ejected out ahead of the storm with minimal accumulations by Wednesday morning.
Showers will intensify later Wednesday and overnight as temperatures rise, with rain or a rain-snow mix possible at the lower elevations, before temperatures cool by night time. Even after the cooling, the storm is not very cold, and 5-10” of relatively dense snow is possible by Thursday morning.
Trailing energy will likely keep snow showers going through the day Thursday and overnight, leading to another 2-5” of snow for the Friday morning report.
There may be a break in the weather for a time during Friday before another strong Pacific storm barrels into the Gulf of Alaska ridge and mixes with a cold storm that develops off the Pacific Northwest coast. Though I expect the details to change, some showers are currently expected to develop by late in the day Friday before moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall starts overnight into Saturday morning with significant accumulations possible.
Save your soles! You suspect that the grating and grinding sounds you hear from your ski boots as you walk across hard surfaces can’t be good. In fact, worn boot soles make your binding unsafe as it interferes with the boot-binding interface. Cat Tracks
A week of snow starts tonight
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Well, I hope you enjoyed the last three days of spring-like weather in Steamboat Springs because winter returns starting tonight, with possibly a week of snowfall ahead. Light snowfall starts later today on this Wednesday and will be followed by several waves of likely heavy snowfall that will persist through next Monday. A short break is currently advertised by the weather forecast models for around Tuesday before the snow machine starts up again around midweek.
The weather pattern over the West has been dominated by a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska with a strong and cold storm loitering off the Pacific Northwest coast near the base of the ridge. All of the weather action has stayed north of our area these past few days, but that is going to change starting tonight as another upstream Pacific storm is shunted to the south of the ridge in the gulf. As this storm moves east toward the West Coast, it forces the Pacific Northwest storm to eject pieces of energy and moisture that will begin moving over our area starting tonight.
While this storm cycle will start small, with only 1-4” of relatively dense overnight snow expected by the Thursday morning mid-mountain report, it will ramp up by Thursday afternoon as a stronger piece of energy drags a modest cold front across our area overnight. Winds should briefly turn to be from the west-northwest as snowfall intensifies, leaving 5-10” of fluffier and less-dense snow for the Friday morning report, with an additional 1-4” of Steamboat Magic falling before noon.
Additional pieces of the original Pacific Northwest storm travel along what becomes a stationary front aligned roughly along the northern borders of Nevada, Utah and Colorado, and keeps snow showers going for the rest of Friday into early Saturday. Showers will wax and wane along the undulating front, but I would think another 1-4” during Friday afternoon and overnight are possible for a wide-ranging 2-8” guess at the Saturday morning snow report.
At this point, what is left of the Pacific Northwest storm will move just north of our area early on Saturday even as the next Pacific storm that moved underneath the Gulf of Alaska ridge races across the Great Basin and moves just south of our area by Saturday night. The combination of these two storm systems should keep moderate to heavy snows going from early Saturday though early Sunday, with 8-16” of new snow expected by the Sunday morning mid-mountain report.
But wait, there’s more! After these two storm move east of Colorado by Sunday, winds turn to our favorable northwest direction carrying moist and unstable air over the Park mountain range. Persistent light to sometimes moderate orographic, or terrain driven, snowfall is expected from Sunday through Monday afternoon or evening.
At this point, I’ll stop guessing at snowfall amounts since our snowfall will be dependent upon the location and timing of the best moisture and upward motion, and all of these things are changing with each new weather forecast model iteration. But more significant accumulations are very likely by Monday evening.
A short break is advertised for around Tuesday before another Pacific storm takes the same southern trajectory underneath the persistent Gulf of Alaska ridge and crosses the West Coast around midweek. More significant snowfall is likely for much of the West through the rest of the work week and into the following weekend.
I absolutely love this super-warm split-finger mitten-glove, and it’s perfect for the very cold week ahead! I’m on my second season with these and am very impressed with their durability and warmth, especially when combined with the standard HotHands handwamers. Three fingers sit together with the index finger separated, but there is enough room to scrunch all your fingers together while on the lift, which is especially nice if you have a handwarmer in the mitten-part of the glove.
Quiet before active weather resumes around midweek
Sunday, February 24, 2019
After an unseasonably cold and moderately snowy week, the sun has returned to the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has allowed a Pacific Northwest storm to form near its base, and Pacific energy and copious moisture will be carried inland this work work and bring significant precipitation to the western corridor between the I-80 and I-90 interstate highways.
After a mostly sunny day today, our area will see some sun and clouds on a seasonably warm Monday and Tuesday, along with the slight chance of some light afternoon snow showers with minimal accumulations at best, as hard-to-time waves of energy and moisture pass just north of us.
The weather turns more active around midweek as additional upstream Pacific storms encounter the Gulf of Alaska ridge of high pressure and split. After strong weather forecast model disagreement on how this pattern will evolve over the last week, it appears the American GFS caught on to the current forecast about 12 hours faster than the experimental model expected to soon take its place, and 24 hour faster than the European ECMWF.
The consensus is now that a Pacific storm will undercut the Gulf of Alaska ridge of high pressure and quickly slingshot around the Pacific Northwest storm and head inland, bringing clouds and a good chance of light to moderate snow later Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, another stronger upstream Pacific storm looks to be shunted much further south underneath the Gulf of Alaska ridge before moving towards the West Coast late in the work week. This will dislodge the Pacific Northwest storm, bringing the possibly strong but quick-moving storm to our area by later Thursday into Friday.
Even at only a half-week away, the details are still uncertain, but right now I would guess snows get started by Wednesday afternoon or evening in generally westerly flow, leaving 3-6” of relatively dense snow by Thursday morning, Snows will diminish, but likely not stop during the day before the much stronger storm starts moderate to heavy snows by Thursday afternoon or evening, bringing 6-12” of fluffy low-density powder by Friday morning.
Winds will turn from the west during the beginning of the storm to the northwest by the end of the storm with another blast of unseasonably cold air, and I expect some Steamboat Magic Friday morning before snows eventually taper off by the end of the day. Another 2-5” of snow will fall during the day that would be reported on a cold Saturday morning report.
A short break is advertised for Saturday before the storm from under the Gulf of Alaska ridge is forecast to cross the West Coast early in the weekend and battle the cold air from the northern latitudes as it moves piecemeal across the Great Basin. Though I expect changes in the forecast, a stormy weather pattern may restart on Sunday and last into the beginning of the next work week.
Stop battling cold feet! I’ve used the awesome Hotronic foot warmers from their beginnings, and can honestly say that each iteration of the product is better than the last. I have the S4 custom, attached to my powerstrap so they never fall off, and my toes stay warm for my entire ski day.
