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Some snow likely during closing week

Sunday, April 4, 2021

Mostly sunny skies with temperatures of 53 F at the Bob Adams airport and 44 F at the top of Mt. Werner are over the Steamboat Springs area late this Easter Sunday morning. Another couple of days with high temperatures in the sixties will be followed by snow chances for later Tuesday and Wednesday as a compact storm passes through our area. Drying and more seasonable temperatures are forecast for the rest of the work week and into the closing weekend of the Steamboat Ski Resort.

A storm passing through the Gulf of Alaska earlier in the weekend has split, with the northern part of the storm currently located over the Vancouver region and the southern part forming an eddy off the West Coast. The northern part of the storm is forecast to undergo its own split today, with the southern part forming an eddy that passes over our area from later Tuesday through Wednesday.

This eventual and complicated evolution of the Gulf of Alaska storm is why there was so much uncertainty in earlier weather forecasts. Ahead of the storm, expect another couple of unseasonably warm days for today and Monday, with periods of clouds and sun today as some moisture scoots by and more sun on Monday.

The cold front associated with the incoming storm looks to pass through by midday on Tuesday for a mostly raw day, with increasing clouds and breezy conditions, though nothing like the wind we saw with last week’s dry storm. The storm is forecast to intensify a bit as it moves through, and with showers starting after the cold front passes, possibly with a rain/snow mix at the lower elevations, we could see 2-5” of snowfall at mid-mountain by noon on Wednesday in the favorable moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm.

This may be the last snowfall while the Steamboat Ski Resort is open, though the weather for closing day is uncertain, as one incoming storm passes well north of our area on Thursday and the next incoming storm tries to mix with that leftover eddy off the West Coast during the weekend. A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West through Saturday, and though we will see above average temperatures from midweek through then, they look to be cooler than the temperatures we are currently seeing.

There is weather forecast model uncertainty during next weekend with regards to the interaction, similar to the American GFS, or not, similar to the European ECWMF, of the next incoming storm and that eddy off the West Coast, but the weather looks like it may be unsettled, possibly as early as closing day. Enjoy the changing seasons over the next few days, with the warm spring weather today and tomorrow hopefully giving way to some fresh snow for Wednesday morning. And stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll discuss the weather for closing weekend and what may be in store for us the following week.

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21 June 2019

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