Modest storm for the weekend

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Skies are clearing in Steamboat Springs this Thursday noon after 2” was reported at mid-mountain by the Steamboat Ski Area this morning and 3” up top. After a mostly sunny afternoon, clouds increase overnight and snow showers begin on a windy Friday and become heaviest overnight before tapering off late Saturday. A cold and dry Sunday and Monday morning will yield to warming temperatures into Tuesday. Another storm is forecast sometime after that, though it is unclear if it will be earlier or later in the work week.

A storm currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska is mixing with a reservoir of cold air stretched between Greenland and Alaska and is bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. The storm is comprised of a windy and dry leading wave that will pass through our area Friday morning, followed by snow showers developing during the windy day ahead of the main storm which is forecast to split as it moves through the Great Basin later Saturday.

Before this split, however, enough of the storm will move through our area to produce moderate to even briefly heavy snowfall after midnight on Friday in the favorable and less windy flow from the northwest. Between some of the snow that will fall during the day Friday and most of the snow that will fall Friday night, we could see 4-8” of snowfall at mid-mountain by Saturday morning, followed by an additional 1-4” during the day Saturday.

Weather forecast models disagree on exactly how the storm will split and whether the snow showers will hang on Saturday night or not, but there could be additional dry and fluffy accumulations Saturday night in the cold, unstable but drying air mass.

Sunday should be cold and dry, with another cold morning forecast for Monday. Ahead of the next storm crossing the Gulf of Alaska on Monday, a ridge of high pressure moves overhead for sunny weather and temperatures warming toward our average of 35 F on Monday, with even more warming forecast for Tuesday. It’s probably too early to call it springlike, but after such a cold and snowy February, March will be arriving like a lamb.

Weather model forecasts differ substantially by Tuesday afternoon as the American GFS splits the incoming storm along the West Coast while the European ECMWF keeps the storm in one piece. While I would guess some sort of compromise solution will eventually verify, we could see a modest storm begin as early as Tuesday night, or the nice weather might persist through midweek before the storm passes through around Thursday.

An even more pronounced ridge of high pressure is advertised to move overhead after the storm, and if the early week’s weather did not feel springlike, then the late-week weather certainly should. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll have the snow totals from this weekend as well as a better idea of the timing of the next storm.

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