Weakening Wednesday storm followed by weekend storm chances

Sunday, February 21, 2021

The Steamboat Ski Area reported 7.5” of low-density and fluffy snowfall at mid-mountain and 10” up top this Sunday morning, with an additional 3” recorded by mid-morning at mid-mountain and 4” up top. Additional light snowfall will hang around tonight and most of tomorrow, especially at the higher elevations, with the sun appearing at lower elevations by Monday afternoon and all elevations for the first part of Tuesday. The midweek storm discussed in the last weather narrative is trending weaker as it is now forecast to split around our area, though we will see the very cold air associated with the storm Wednesday night and Thursday. Snow returns in the weather forecast for Friday, with a possibly significant storm for the weekend.

The current light snowfall at the higher elevations is the result of moisture trapped against the Park Range being lifted over the mountains by the northwest flow behind the storm (orographic, or terrain-driven, precipitation). These showers don’t look to be too productive, with an additional inch or so possible overnight.

The sun will return later Monday first in the valley, and snow showers may taper off enough at the higher elevations to see some sun up there too. Drier air passes overhead during the first half of Tuesday for more sun and warmer temperatures ahead of our next storm that is forecast to travel through the Gulf of Alaska on Monday and mix with some very cold air that is stretched across the northern latitudes from Greenland to Alaska.

Some energy and moisture is ejected out ahead of the storm when it makes landfall along the Pacific Northwest on Monday and is forecast to graze our area later Tuesday. So after a sunny morning, clouds and wind will increase in the afternoon, though precipitation looks to be confined to Wyoming as the wave has trended further north in the weather forecast models.

The main storm is then forecast to split as it enters the Great Basin early Wednesday, with some light snowfall expected for our area centered around Wednesday night and another round of below average temperatures, currently at 34 F, for Thursday.

Splitting storm systems are notorious for being difficult to forecast as what will eventually end up happening over our area is dependent upon how much energy is partitioned between the northern and southern branches. If the storm splits as currently forecast, we might only see 1-4” on the cold Thursday morning report.

Another stronger storm that may evolve similarly is forecast to affect our area starting around the end of the work week and extending into and possibly through the following weekend. There are a range of possible solutions, from a lot of snow to very little, depending upon the eventual track and strength of the storm. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details about this hopefully significant storm.

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