Sunday, August 11, 2019
After a good chance of showers this mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon and evening, much drier air overspreads the Steamboat Springs area starting Monday. Warm and dry weather will dominate the upcoming work week before a Pacific Northwest storm eventually passing to our north introduces breezy conditions heading into the weekend.
A storm currently over Idaho will move across Montana tonight and North Dakota tomorrow, swinging our winds from the south to the west. While the current southerly flow ahead of the storm is supporting the good chance of showers this afternoon and evening, with some storms producing locally moderate to heavy rains at times, the westerly flow behind the storm effectively severs the monsoonal moisture tap that has been with us this weekend and brings much drier air overhead.
So high temperatures around or slightly above our 81 F average with mostly sunny skies are expected for the work week. Around Friday, another seasonably strong strong storm crosses the Pacific Northwest coast, bringing breezy to windy southwesterly winds starting as soon as Friday and lasting through some or all of the weekend.
Weather forecast models disagree on the how strong the storm becomes along the West Coast and how quickly it moves across the northern U.S. as it is dependent upon the strength and location of a ridge of high pressure forecast in the proximity of the Gulf of Alaska. The European ECMWF has a stronger and deeper storm that moves mostly north of our area through the weekend in pieces, while the weaker and faster American GFS moves the storm bodily north of us early in the weekend. More details will emerge by my next weather narrative on Thursday, with the forecast varying between cool, dry and breezy according to the ECMWF to warmer with a chance of showers according to the GFS.