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Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Saturday

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Our wet and cool spring looks to leave us around midweek after another pair of weakly connected storms pass through the area in the Monday through Wednesday time frame.

Before that, after a chance of light showers this afternoon, a weak storm off the central California coast will be dragged eastward by a stronger storm crossing the northern West Coast near the Canadian border that has already mixed with cool air from western Canada. The southern storm will bring increasing chances of stronger showers Sunday afternoon as moisture and atmospheric instability increase.

Some dry air may briefly pass over our area ahead of the pair of storms early in the day on Monday as they both move eastward. However, the dominant northern storm will bring a cool front through the area later Monday, again increasing the chance of afternoon storms.

By Monday night, pieces of energy from both storms will continue to eject over our area, possibly continuing showers into the nighttime. Additional cool air will filter into the area on Tuesday, though there is model disagreement on whether the air will be cool enough to preclude additional showers during the afternoon.

In any case, atmospheric moisture will gradually leave our area on Wednesday, even as the cool air hangs around for a cool and dry spring day.

Though Thursday may start out cool, rapid warming during the day combined with the drier airmass should bring beautiful and relatively summer-like weather that finally looks to hang around through next weekend as a western summertime ridge builds over the western third of the US.

Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Wednesday

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

A storm crossing the southern California coast this afternoon will be kicked northeastward by yet another storm traveling south from the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the southern storm, relatively dry air will keep only a slight chance of showers for later today.

The projected track of the southern storm brings it over southern Colorado by Thursday, along with a cool front and increasing moisture that will make stronger storms likely for Thursday afternoon, possibly lasting into the night.

As the storm moves east of the area by Friday, cool weather with another round of possibly strong storms are likely in the northwest flow behind the storm during the afternoon and early evening, with showers starting as soon as noon.

Meanwhile, the kicker storm from the northwest is forecast to cross the Northwest Coast on later Thursday or early Friday and spin over Idaho on Saturday and Sunday, mixing with some cool air from western Canada.

Pieces of energy are forecast to break away from the Idaho storm on Sunday and Monday, keeping the threat of afternoon and nighttime showers over our area for both Sunday and Memorial Day.

Additional Pacific energy kicks the Idaho storm across Montana on Tuesday, allowing some of that cool air originally from western Canada to move over our area later Tuesday. Additionally, some energy left behind in southern California is also dragged south of our area, and keeps the threat of unsettled weather with afternoon showers through at least midweek.

Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Monday

Monday, May 23, 2016

A storm just off the West Coast is producing a relatively dry southwest flow over our area from the desert southwest. There will still be a chance of light afternoon and early evening showers for today and Tuesday as numerous weak waves of energy travel over our area.

By Wednesday, the storm will be kicked eastward by another storm dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska, traveling across central Arizona and New Mexico by Thursday. This storm will be strong enough to bring a cool front through the area sometime on Thursday with an increasing chance of afternoon and evening showers.

As the storm moves east of the area by Friday, cool weather with stronger storms are likely in the northwest flow behind the storm during the afternoon and early evening, with showers starting as soon as noon.

Meanwhile, the kicker storm from the northwest is forecast to cross the Northwest Coast on Friday and spin over Idaho on Saturday and Sunday, keeping the cool and unsettled weather around for most the weekend.

There is uncertainty for later Sunday and Memorial Day as the ECMWF splits the the Idaho storm earlier than the GFS, with the northern stream moving just north of our area on Sunday while the GFS is about a day later. Currently, it appears that most of the weather will be north and east of our area when the storm moves past.

Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Friday

Friday, May 20, 2016

Another large storm, currently in Oregon, will move south along the West Coast through Saturday, keeping warm and relatively dry air over our area with breezy to windy southwest winds for Saturday.

The storm will first move eastward into the Great Basin tomorrow before lifting to the northeast through Idaho on Sunday, brushing our area with a cold front with gusty winds Sunday afternoon. Models keep the airmass relatively dry, and have trended any Sunday afternoon storm weaker, or even non-existent in some models.

Following quickly on Monday, another Pacific storm approaches the northwest coast, allowing cool air from western Canada to spread over the western third of the US. The storm is further off the coast than the previous storm and allows some dry air from the southwest to be transported over Colorado for Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. There will still be a chance of afternoon storms for each day, though, as numerous waves of energy travel over our area.

After traveling south along the West Coast on Monday, this storm is forecast to turn eastward around midweek and travel across southern Arizona and New Mexico, bringing increasing chances of cool and mostly showery weather for Thursday and Friday.

If you’ve made it this far, I am traveling this upcoming week and will likely be unable to publish forecasts prepared on Saturday, May 21 and Sunday, May 29. Also, the daily forecast might become more periodic next week, likely being refreshed every second or third day.

Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Thursday

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Afternoon showers should decrease in intensity for Friday compared to the last few days as the airmass dries and significantly warms ahead of another large storm approaching the Pacific Northwest around Friday. This storm is forecast to move south along the West Coast through Saturday, keeping warm and relatively dry air over our area with breezy to windy southwest winds for the first part of the weekend.

By Sunday, the West Coast storm is forecast to be moving eastward through the Great Basin. Model trends have reverted towards the solution from a couple of days ago, with the bulk of the storm skirting to our northwest, but still close enough to still bring a cold front with gusty winds and showers through the area around Sunday afternoon.

Following quickly on Monday, another Pacific storm approaches the northwest coast, allowing cool air from western Canada to spread over the western third of the US. The storm is further off the coast than the previous storm and allows some dry air from the southwest to be transported over Colorado for Monday and Tuesday. There will still be a chance of afternoon storms for each day, though, as numerous waves of energy travel over our area.

After traveling south along the West Coast on Monday, this storm is forecast to turn eastward around midweek and travel across southern Arizona and New Mexico, bringing increasing chances of cool and mostly showery weather to end the work week.

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