Monster storm to start Tuesday after moderate storm today
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Light snow is falling in Steamboat Springs late this Sunday morning with temperatures hovering in the low thirties. A cold front will bring moderate snowfall accumulations through tonight preceding a break in the weather on Monday. But it will be short-lived as moderate to heavy snows on Tuesday and Wednesday bring significant accumulations to all elevations making travel difficult or even impossible at times over Rabbit Ears Pass.
A wave of energy ejected from the decaying bomb cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast will combine with the remnants of an atmospheric river and bring a cold front and moderate snow through our area this afternoon and evening. Total accumulations should be between four and eight inches at and above mid-mountain with one to four inches in town.
A break in the weather on Monday will bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-thirties, around our average of 37 F. But don’t be fooled by the nice day; the Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to move slowly south through Monday before grudgingly being forced eastward by a wave of energy and cold air moving across Alaska. Additionally, another atmospheric river moving across the southern Sierras, much wetter than the last, will be ingested by the storm as it approaches our area early Tuesday.
Light snow should start falling after midnight on Monday before the firehose of moisture produces moderate to heavy snows thanks to westerly winds impinging on the Park Range. Snowfall rates around an inch per hour and increasing winds with gusts above 30 mph will make travel hazardous over Rabbit Ears Pass by Tuesday afternoon.
The storm will stretch to the southwest as it moves across the Great Basin later Tuesday, bringing a moderate cold front that will force even heavier snowfall rates approaching two inches per hour at times. Travel over Rabbit Ears Pass will likely degrade further and perhaps become impossible from later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The heaviest snowfall should be over by Wednesday afternoon, though snowfall will likely linger through Thanksgiving morning as the rest of the stretched storm passes overhead. Total snowfall accumulations will be impressive, with mid-mountain and above seeing 1-2′ by Wednesday morning and another 6-12” by Thanksgiving morning. The warmer temperatures in town, especially Tuesday afternoon with high temperatures just above freezing, will limit the accumulations to 3-6” by Wednesday morning with another 1-4” during the day and overnight.
There may be some sun by Thanksgiving afternoon illuminating the new wintry landscape, especially in town, as a ridge of high pressure ahead of a strong storm forecast to develop south of the Aleutian Islands moves eastward. There is some weather forecast model uncertainty regarding a wave moving around the periphery of the ridge that may bring cooler air and snow showers by Friday or Saturday, but I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative Thursday afternoon.
Pleasant days ahead of strong wintry storm to begin Sunday
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-forties late this Thursday afternoon after touching fifty degrees under sunny skies earlier. We’ll see another couple of warm and pleasant days on Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies on Friday giving way to increasing clouds on Saturday. These clouds are ahead of a strong wintry storm that will begin affecting our area on Sunday and likely last through the middle of Thanksgiving week with colder temperatures and significant snow accumulations.
A powerful wintry storm called a bomb cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska has pummeled the Pacific Northwest with high winds and heavy precipitation. The storm earned that moniker by the low pressure in the center of the storm decreasing by over 24 millibars in 24 hours; in fact the pressure dropped from 984 millibars Tuesday morning to a regional-record-tying 942 millibars in the evening for 42 millibars in about 12 hours!
Though it occurred in the Gulf of Alaska, the 942 millibar central pressure is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane and was fueled by an atmospheric river, which is a long, relatively narrow, concentrated plume of water vapor that transports heat and moisture out of the tropics and toward the poles. Some may be familiar with the Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating from around Hawaii that sometimes brings heavy precipitation to Colorado.
Pieces of the storm are forecast to break away through the weekend and into next week and move inland, with the first relatively weak wave forecast for our area on Sunday. Ahead of that, a ridge of high pressure centered over the Rockies will keep the mostly sunny skies around for Friday, with high temperatures again approaching fifty degrees, about ten degrees above our average of 39 F.
Another similarly warm day is forecast for the Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Resort on Saturday, though expect increasing clouds through the day as the first wave from the Pacific Northwest storm approaches. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing and path of this wave, but snow showers will likely start sometime Sunday, perhaps in the morning or later in the afternoon. There could be between four and eight inches of snow at and above mid-mountain and one to four inches in town by Monday morning.
A brief break in the weather might occur on Monday, but snows should intensify on Tuesday and Wednesday as the remains of the Pacific Northwest storm move near or over our area. Significant snow is likely, along with difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass at times. There is some uncertainty with the track and timing of the storm, including snow amounts, so check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details.
Temperatures to warm after a very cold Tuesday
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Sunny skies and temperatures near freezing are over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon. Increasing clouds on Monday will be followed by a quick-moving cold front that will bring a bit of snow and cold mid-winter temperatures for Tuesday. But the noteworthy cold will moderate starting Wednesday under sunny skies with temperatures approaching fifty degrees by the end of the workweek.
An eddy of low pressure is currently over Baja as a cold storm from the Gulf of Alaska pounds the Pacific Northwest. Quiet weather between the storms will be overhead today with sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the upper-thirties, around five degrees below our average of 42 F. The approaching storm will dislodge the eddy, though it will stay first south and then east of Colorado as it moves across Kansas on Monday and towards Minnesota by Tuesday.
Clouds will increase Monday morning as the strong cold front associated with the northwest storm approaches. Light snow showers under breezy conditions should break out after noon ahead of the cold front timed for sunset, give or take several hours, with better showers along and behind the cold front. Snow showers look to hang on during a continued breezy Tuesday in the unseasonably cold air behind the front, though due to limited moisture, total storm amounts may only be an inch or two in town and 2-5” on the hill.
High temperatures in town on Tuesday may only reach the low twenties, almost twenty degrees below average, with the record coldest high temperatures for the date being 20 F in 1929, 21 F in 1930 and 24 F in 1985. And if skies clear as expected Tuesday night, low temperatures will fall into the low single digits, even to around zero degrees in the favored low-lying spots of the Yampa Valley, well below the fifteen-degree average.
Temperatures start to recover on Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West ahead of a strong storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to rise above average and into the mid-forties on Thursday, with even warmer temperatures approaching fifty degrees on Friday despite possible high clouds.
Similarly warm temperatures are forecast for Saturday, which is Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Resort. There is a fair bit of uncertainty concerning how that Gulf of Alaska storm evolves, with current forecasts advertising snow for Sunday. Enjoy the sunny days before and after the mid-winterlike cold front on Tuesday, and check back for the latest Opening Weekend forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Nice days Friday and Sunday will bookend some unsettled weather on Saturday
Thursday, November 14, 2024
A lovely day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures near fifty degrees. Even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday along with increasing winds from the southwest ahead of a cold front Friday night. Unsettled weather with minor snow accumulations on the hill will follow through Saturday night before the sun returns on a cool Sunday.
The snow forecast from last Sunday’s weather narrative was too optimistic as we saw only a half inch in town and two inches at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort. The front came through around 5 pm Tuesday with a promising round of snow, but the forecast cool, moist and unstable northwest flow promised by even by the short-range weather forecast model ended up not nearly moist enough to sustain snowfall through the night. It’s always a bad sign when the moon appears soon after the front passes!
But we have a beautiful warm and sunny day today ahead of the next storm along the West Coast. It is forecast to move across Nevada on Friday and split, with the southern part forming an eddy of low pressure over southern Arizona by Sunday and the northern part dragging a cold front through our area Friday night.
Winds from the southwest ahead of the storm will bring even warmer temperatures on Friday, almost ten degrees above our average of 43 F. Moisture will increase as the front approaches with snow showers possible after midnight Friday. Winds will turn to be from the west behind the front, with snow showers possible during the day and into Saturday night, though accumulations are expected to be sparse with less than an inch in town and up to several inches on the hill. Be prepared for a raw day on Saturday with breezy winds and high temperatures only in the thirties.
Meanwhile, our next storm east of Kamchatka is forecast to ingest some cold Alaskan air as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and crosses the Pacific Northwest Coast Sunday night. We should see a mostly sunny Sunday ahead of that storm with continued below-average temperatures a degree or two warmer than Saturday.
Clouds will increase Monday as the storm approaches with snow showers breaking out as early as Monday afternoon. Colder air and continuing snow showers are forecast for Tuesday with clearing advertised for Wednesday. Though forecast snow amounts are modest at this time, that can certainly change, so be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details.
Nice days around a small storm Tuesday
Sunday, November 10, 2024
Temperatures are just breaking the freezing mark with nary a cloud in the sky this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs. After almost a week of below-average temperatures and more clouds than not, sunny skies and warmer weather are on the way this workweek except for a quick-moving storm arriving by Tuesday afternoon.
The second visit yesterday from the storm that first affected our area on Tuesday left just under four inches of snow on my deck near the base of the ski area and seven inches at mid-mountain between Friday and Saturday afternoon, a bit better than forecast in my last weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
This resulted from easterly winds carrying moisture around the storm eddy over northeast Colorado yesterday. While winds from that direction usually doom our precipitation chances due to the warming and drying resulting from winds downsloping off the Park Range, these eddies can sometimes produce good snowfall thanks to the dominant upward motion from the storm.
The weather forecast models did predict this, but they have been wrong in the past, in both directions, making these large storms that produce easterly winds overhead a vexing forecast challenge.
But that won’t be a problem for our next storm on Tuesday. Ahead of that, we should see sunny skies and temperatures warming into the forties today, around our average of 45 F and the warmest day in a week since the 61 F last Saturday.
Even warmer temperatures approaching fifty degrees under continued mostly sunny skies are forecast for Veterans Day ahead of a storm currently brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. That storm is forecast to cross the West Coast Monday night and bring a cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will probably reach the mid-forties again under increasingly cloudy skies ahead of the front, with precipitation quickly changing to snow at the lower elevations as the front passes.
The bulk of the precipitation should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning along and behind the front in favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow, with 1-4” in town and 4-8” on the hill, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass under the heavier showers. There is some uncertainty regarding how cohesive the storm will be and its southern extent, but it should be over by Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures only in the mid-thirties despite some afternoon sun.
Winds shift to be from the west behind the storm, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the forties on Thursday and around fifty degrees on Friday. Another storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands is forecast to split to some degree as it approaches the West Coast at the end of the workweek, leading to significant uncertainty about how the storm may or may not affect us next weekend or early next week.
So enjoy the sunny and warmer weather to start and end the workweek, hope for more snow than forecast from the Tuesday storm, and check back for more details about the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
