Meager snow chances to start the week
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Brilliant blue skies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon with temperatures in the low-thirties in town and low-twenties at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. A weak wave on Monday and a mostly dry cold front later Tuesday will bring clouds and meager snow chances through Wednesday before our first case of Spring Fever washes over the West and closes out the month of February.
A ridge of high pressure over the West has been flattened by a series of Pacific storms carrying remnants of atmospheric rivers through the Pacific Northwest. One wave approaching Vancouver will bring clouds to our area starting tonight and perhaps some high-elevation snow showers leaving little accumulations through Monday as it travels through Montana.
Another colder wave, forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest on Monday, will take a more southern track and graze our area with a cold front Tuesday within several hours of noon. There may be a better chance to see some accumulations, though they will likely only be in the 1-4” range.
High temperatures ahead of the cold front are forecast to be around forty degrees through Tuesday, several degrees warmer than our average of 38 F, with low temperatures in the twenties, over ten degrees above our average of 11 F thanks to the insulating effects of any overnight clouds.
Snow showers may occur during the first half of Wednesday before skies clear later in the day, with daytime temperatures decreasing by around ten degrees. If skies stay clear overnight, expect a chilly Thursday morning with lows below average and in the single digits.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the forties are forecast for Thursday, with temperatures warming further into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West ahead of an approaching Pacific storm. The dry skies and temperatures around fifty degrees will no doubt create our first episode of Spring Fever ahead of unsettled weather likely to return to our area soon after the weekend.
If it’s going to be cloudy, it might as well be snowing, so let’s hope these approaching waves pack more punch than forecast. Otherwise, enjoy the coming springlike weather to end the workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on how springlike the first weekend of meteorological spring could be.
Warming and drying to follow some snow this evening
Thursday, February 20, 2025
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun this Thursday at noon. An approaching storm will bring some snow to our area later this afternoon and evening, but will be over by Saturday as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds return Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a weak grazing storm for Monday.
In addition to the 20” of snowfall at mid-mountain and 29” up top collated in Sunday’s weather narrative, another 19” at mid-mountain and 23” up top accumulated through the workweek as of this morning, boosting the upper-mountain base to 108”.
The final storm in this series that started almost two weeks ago has been difficult to forecast, with even the shortest-range weather forecast models still changing. The storm is trending further south, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for our area for the storm’s beginning, and stronger, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for the storm’s end. The storm, in east-central Utah, is forecast to briefly strengthen and form an eddy that moves across central Colorado tonight. The trend further south will limit the energy that moves overhead late this afternoon and this evening, while air moving counter-clockwise around the eddy will bring winds from the east, limiting precipitation after midnight.
So now I expect only 3-6” to be reported by the Friday morning mid-mountain report, with the best snowfall between late this afternoon and midnight. I would not be surprised if the storm under or over-achieves, depending upon its final track and strength, so check the mid-mountain powdercam and the upper-mountain powdercam, or better yet, simply set your SnowAlarm. There may be some flurries to start Friday, but a weakening ridge of high pressure is forecast to move through our area from later Friday through midday Saturday bringing periods of sun and high temperatures around freezing on Friday and several degrees below our average of 37 F on Saturday.
Even as a weak and splitting wave crosses the West Coast Friday night and moves around our area starting later Saturday, bringing some clouds for Saturday night and Sunday, temperatures are expected to reach the upper-thirties on Sunday and low-forties on Monday.
A weak wave in the northward-migrating jet stream may bring some high-elevation snow flurries on Monday, with uncertainty high for a possible quick-moving midweek storm in our favorable northwest flow.
Let’s hope the incoming storm is more productive than forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the possible midweek storm.
Another round of significant snow to fall through at least midweek
Sunday, February 16, 2025
Temperatures are in the low twenties with an occasional flurry this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs and the mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional light snow. Several Pacific waves of energy in moist and favorable winds from the northwest and west will restart the snow machine by this afternoon with significant accumulations expected through Wednesday morning. There may be another storm for Thursday behind a short break later Wednesday.
Snowfall from the just-ended event arrived in time for the Friday morning ski report as expected, with mid-mountain reporting twenty inches through this morning, and twenty-nine inches at the summit. Snowfall during the day Friday ended up being lower than forecast due to moisture in the atmospheric river being spottier than predicted. The three days of accumulation over the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin encompassing north-central Colorado contained 1.7” of liquid water that brought the season total to 14”, 95% of the 14.7” 30-year average.
Our next storm currently bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest has started some light snow showers, which should become moderate to heavy by sunset as the first piece of energy ejecting from the storm moves overhead. The storm will generally be warm, like the last one, with some cool air arriving behind the storm Tuesday night when snowfall will be tapering off.
Due to the storm traversing between a vortex of frigid air now centered in southern Manitoba and the warm air in the Desert Southwest, expect winds around 25 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph tonight. Another wave ejecting from the parent storm will keep snowfall going during the day, and though winds will decrease a bit Monday morning, they will pick up again through the day peaking at around 30 mph with gusts twice that by noon.
I would expect 6-12” at mid-mountain by the Monday morning report, with snowfall continuing through the day and overnight for another 6-12” by Tuesday morning as what is left of the parent storm moves through Colorado. Winds will thankfully decrease on Tuesday, though remain brisk with gusts as high as 40 mph by the end of the day.
Snowfall should be tapering off after noon on Tuesday, though with cool air arriving Tuesday night thanks to the Manitoba vortex sinking south and stretching westward, there may be enough moisture behind the storm for a round of lower-density snow for Wednesday. While the weather forecast models are generally unexcited about that prospect, keep an eye on the mid-mountain powdercam and the summit powdercam for the possibility of 4-8” of fluffier snowfall by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, a piece of energy will eject out of a large storm near the Aleutian Islands early Tuesday and split as it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday. While we should see at least a short break in the snowfall starting Wednesday afternoon, it is unclear if we will see possibly significant snow for Thursday.
Regardless, it appears our active stretch of weather will end for a time as the jet stream lifts northward by Friday. So enjoy another snowy workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, unless significant changes to the splitting storm demand an update on Wednesday.
Wall of water to arrive tonight
Thursday, February 13, 2025
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-single digits at all elevations in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies this Thursday at noon. A storm and its associated atmospheric river currently pounding the Sierras will begin snows this evening and deliver between twenty and thirty inches of snow at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort by Saturday evening, with difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass likely. Another storm quickly follows bringing another round of significant snow between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday.
Before getting to the forecast, I’d like to review the astounding 15” of snow reported at mid-mountain Wednesday morning despite only 7” at the top. The storm was heavily banded, which can create localized areas of high snowfall, as evidenced by the Rabbit Ears Snotel at a similar elevation to mid-mountain measuring about six inches of snowfall.
Additionally, that snowfall at the Steamboat Ski Resort was maximized around mid-mountain was likely due to perfect snowflake-making temperatures and the loss of moisture above that elevation, as shown by the accompanying three-day time series of temperature and relative humidity at Storm Peak Lab. Note the relative humidity decreased soon after 6 pm MST on Tuesday as the red temperature line diverged from the blue dew point line near the center of the chart, shutting down the snowfall at that elevation but allowing it to continue at mid-mountain.
Thankfully the subzero temperatures that followed the storm, including a low of -12 F Wednesday morning at the top of the hill and a high of only -6 F, are being moderated by an approaching storm containing an atmospheric river as winds shift to the southwest and carry much warmer air overhead. Snowflakes should begin to fall early in the evening and become moderate to heavy by midnight as abundant moisture combines with strong storm forcing to overcome the unfavorable southwest winds. I expect 5-10” of accumulation for the Friday morning mid-mountain report.
Winds will shift to be first from the west early in the day as the storm center moves overhead and then the northwest later in the day behind the storm center. Most of the storm energy is lost by later Friday as the storm moves overhead, after leaving 6-12” by sunset, but that should be compensated for by the favorable most and unstable northwest flow, which should bring 4-8” overnight for a 10-20” Saturday morning report and another 4-8” during the day Saturday. Travel may be difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass from Thursday evening through most of Saturday under the heavier showers.
While we will see a break in the big accumulations, we might not see a break in light snowfall or flurries Saturday night into a chilly Sunday morning before another storm brings moderate to heavy snows back to our area from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday, with early estimates in the 10-20” range.
So enjoy what will almost certainly be a snowy Washington’s Birthday long weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next storm.
Nice weather on Monday to precede a cold storm later Tuesday and Wednesday
Sunday, February 9, 2025
Skies have cleared this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures in the upper twenties in town and upper single digits at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. A mostly sunny Monday will precede a mostly cloudy Tuesday ahead of a couple waves of frigid air from the north bringing snow for Wednesday. Thursday morning will see the coldest temperatures of the week ahead of increasing temperatures and moisture starting Friday.
After 10” at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort Saturday morning, and 13” up top, the small storm last night delivered an additional 5” of fluff at mid-mountain and 8” up top thanks to ideal snowflake-forming temperatures, cold winds from our favorable northwest direction and jet stream energy.
An expansive vortex of cold air currently sits over most of Canada, a sharp ridge of high pressure extends south from Alaska, and a strong storm just to its west is evolving near the Aleutian Islands. A wave of energy that traveled over the ridge has mixed with frigid air from western Canada, with another such wave quickly following.
These waves will bring a couple of surges of arctic air through our area later Tuesday and Wednesday along with fluffy snow that will likely accumulate fastest on Tuesday night, and may or may not continue through Wednesday night. Snowfall accounts for the entire storm are currently modest, with model blends predicting around six inches, but amounts could be inflated by the fluffy snow, as they were last night. My guess would be 2-5” by the Wednesday morning report with another 2-5” possible on a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures in town dropping to the minus single digits, and perhaps minus teens if skies clear before sunrise, well below our average of 7 F.
Ahead of that, Monday looks quite nice with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the twenties, around five degrees below our average of 33 F, A mostly cloudy Tuesday could keep high temperatures several degrees cooler before the first arctic front begins light snowfall as early as Tuesday afternoon and drops temperatures.
Meanwhile, the Aleutian storm is forecast to shed a wave of energy incorporating some tropical moisture in an atmospheric river on Tuesday before it travels through the ridge of high pressure on Wednesday. Additionally, cold air from western Canada will also slide further west across Alaska, severing the ridge of high pressure and forcing a pattern change in the jet stream. This will not only push the arctic air northward and away from our area, but will also allow the atmospheric river to impinge on California on Thursday and approach our area on Friday.
We could see several days of dense snowfall from this arrangement, but there could still be changes in the forecast this week. So enjoy a nice Monday and the wintry weather that follows, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the incoming atmospheric river for next weekend.
