Thursday, May 3, 2018
Well, the advertised storm sure did not disappoint, with 21” of snow shown on the Winter Park Snow Stake Cam and 19” reported at Loveland this afternoon. Steamboat’s Powdercam showed about 7.5”. The Berthoud Pass SNOTEL site reported 16” of snow containing 1.7” of water, representative of the very dense snow from this warm storm where the temperatures only got down to 28F at the Tower SNOTEL site, just north of Steamboat at 10,500′, and 27F at the Berthoud Pass site 1000′ higher.
Winter departs the area as the storm continues moving eastward and a ridge of high pressure builds over the western states. The Steamboat Springs area should see plenty of sun and warming temperatures starting Friday and lasting through the weekend , with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower.
A Pacific storm traveling through the ridge of high pressure will bring a better chance of afternoon storms on Monday that may extend into the early evening.
The western ridge rebuilds for Tuesday bringing a warm and likely sunny day as shown by the American GFS, though the European ECMWF grazes northern Colorado with some trailing energy and moisture behind the late Monday storm that may spark some afternoon storms.
The American GFS and the European ECMWF disagree on the track and timing of a couple more Pacific storms largely traveling across the northern states. Regardless, generally benign and pleasant weather is forecast for the rest of the work week, with some afternoon storms possible on the days where the Pacific storms graze our area.
More of the same is forecast for the following weekend, though a shift southward in any of the grazing Pacific storms may bring some weather into our area.
Sunday, April 29, 2018
A complicated storm currently bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest will affect the weather in Steamboat Springs through the upcoming work week. Warm and breezy southwest winds ahead of the storm has brought dry weather and some clouds to our region today. As the storm travels into the Great Basin tonight, ejecting energy will bring some cooling and the possibility of showers by Monday afternoon and evening in continued breezy southwest flow.
The storm then elongates to the southwest as additional Pacific energy interacts with the storm, reaching southern Nevada on Tuesday. More incoming Pacific energy then moves the bulk of the storm across the Great Basin and over our area by later Wednesday and Thursday, eventually bringing beneficial rains to the Yampa Valley and accumulating snows above around 9000′ or so.
As suggested in the last forecast, the forecast storm is still evolving, lending more uncertainty than usual to the timing of specific features. Right now, Tuesday is advertised as cooler and showery, with possible thunderstorms, as moisture and energy in southwest flow is carried over our area along a somewhat stationary front.
It appears that the front is nudged northward on Wednesday, leading to a slight decrease in the showers as the best activity follows the front northward. But more Pacific energy dropping southward from the Gulf of Alaska moves the storm eastward and turns the stationary front into a cool front as it moves southward.
Precipitation should increase as the storm nears and the cool front moves southward late Wednesday, with accumulating snows above around 9000′ and snowflakes even possible in the Yampa Valley. Mountain top flow turns to our favorable northwest direction by Thursday, keeping higher elevations snow showers and low elevation rain showers going through a cool Thursday.
Though some energy from this storm is left behind near Baja, this is far enough south that its eastward progress along the Mexican border through the weekend will not affect our weather. So we should see significant warming and drying starting as early as Friday and lasting through the weekend, though there is a possibility of some afternoon showers.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
A ridge of high pressure currently over the western states will be pushed eastward by a large Pacific storm currently spinning off the West Coast. The beautiful springtime weather we are currently experiencing in Steamboat Springs will continue through the first part of Saturday as the ridge passes over our area early in the weekend and warms temperatures to above normal.
Meanwhile, the Pacific storm will make landfall in Oregon early Saturday morning. Southwest flow and some Pacific energy moving through the storm looks to combine with some Gulf of Mexico moisture that was transported northward from the recently departed storm, bringing the possibility of warm showers to our area by Saturday afternoon and evening, more numerous and stronger to our south.
Dry air in continued southwest flow will end any showers by early Sunday morning and make for a gorgeous spring day.
However, additional waves of Pacific energy will interact with the West Coast storm in a complicated and difficult to predict manner through most of the following work week.
The first of these will elongate the Great Basin storm southward early Monday before moving over Colorado later in the day and sparking afternoon and early evening showers. The second wave of Pacific energy will then act to split the Great Basin storm late Monday, with part of the storm traveling eastward over our area on Tuesday and part of it traveling southward through the Great Basin.
So the late Monday showers are forecast to continue through Monday night and Tuesday as part of the Great Basin storm moves across Colorado. Temperatures will also cool, lowering snow levels, as cool and moist northwest flow follows the storm later Tuesday, leaving snow accumulations above 9000 feet or so.
With so many moving pieces, I expect the forecast to change over the coming week, but right now a break in the precipitation is advertised for the first half of Wednesday before a separate surge of cool air from western Canada brings a cold front through northern Colorado later in the day, along with another round of showers.
Meanwhile, the southern piece of the Great Basin storm is eventually forecast to moves across Arizona and New Mexico around midweek, with precipitation from that staying to our south later Wednesday and Thursday. Though this storm could end up moving slower than forecast, it likely won’t affect our weather do to its southern trajectory, and nicer weather is currently forecast for northern Colorado for the end of the work week and the following weekend.
Sunday, April 22, 2018
For those of us still left in suddenly-quiet Steamboat Springs, a pleasant workweek will be briefly interrupted by a storm grazing northern Colorado from late Monday through Tuesday. But this is after we see a mostly gorgeous Sunday behind the disappointing storm that left only about 4” on the mountain by Saturday morning. We may see some clouds and a shower later this afternoon as residual moisture is heated and lifted by the increasingly strong springtime sun.
Then, a storm currently over the Pacific Northwest will split as it crosses the Great Basin tonight, and the energetic southern piece of the storm will drag a cold front through our area late Monday. So while Monday will start out nice, we may see some showers ahead of the front Monday afternoon.
This storm does have cold air, bringing accumulating snow to Mount Werner and snow on the grassy surfaces of the Yampa Valley. Tuesday should be a fairly raw day featuring cool temperatures and snow showers which should end by Tuesday evening, with total accumulations from the storm of 1-4” on the hill.
If skies clear Tuesday night, Wednesday will start quite chilly, but plenty of increasingly strong springtime sun should allow temperatures to rebound towards normal as the day goes on.
Another grazing storm, this one further north, will drag a dry cool front through northern Colorado on Thursday, bringing another cool start to the day. But like Wednesday, temperatures should recover under mostly sunny skies.
Interestingly, the Thursday storm that passes by had split off the West Coast earlier in the week on Tuesday, leaving a strong and unpredictable storm churning off the West Coast. Weather forecast models have struggled mightily with this storm the past few days, leading to a very low confidence weekend forecast. It appears we have a likelihood of some warm rain showers later Friday into Saturday morning as moisture is drawn over our area from the south ahead of the storm and interacts with some energy ejecting out of the storm.
While earlier weather forecast models had indicated an unsettled weekend as the storm passed near or over our area, it currently looks like the bulk of the storm may pass to our northwest, sparing most of the weekend from rain showers.
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Thursday, April 19, 2018
A large storm currently in southern Nevada will move through the Great Basin today and bring precipitation to most of the Colorado mountains starting tonight. Breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures will be felt across the Steamboat Springs area today before energy rotating around the storm brings rain showers to the lower elevations and snow showers to the higher elevations later this evening.
Showers should increase towards daybreak and continue through a seasonably cold Friday, with broad counter-clockwise circulation around the storm transporting warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico first northward and then westward toward northwest Colorado. Some of these showers may produce locally moderate to heavy precipitation, making travel difficult for most of the day Friday at higher elevations. The Yampa Valley floor appears to be warm enough for predominantly rain, though we’ll likely see some snow during the heavier showers.
I would expect 4-8” during the day tomorrow and another 3-6” overnight at mid-mountain, with more likely at higher elevations, as the flow eventually swings to the north and northwest direction by Saturday morning. Showers will hold on for most of the day Saturday, bringing another 1-4” of snow at mid-mountain under continuing cool temperatures.
Warming and drying is advertised for Sunday, before a weak and relatively warm storm grazes northern Colorado later Monday, bringing another round of showers to our area. Cool air behind the storm will keep Tuesday seasonably cool before several additional weak waves brings the threat of afternoon showers to our area on Wednesday and Thursday.
Generally tranquil and seasonable weather is advertised heading into the following weekend as a large storm forms off the California coast.
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