Wintry weather persists through the work week
Sunday, October 23, 2022
A wintry day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday with snow falling and temperatures around thirty degrees late this afternoon, which is a stark change from the sunny skies and mid-sixties of yesterday. Our recent beautiful fall weather will not be returning this work week as the snow lingers into tomorrow before beginning again later Tuesday and possibly lasting through Thursday.
A deep and cold low pressure system has taken the place of the persistent ridge of high pressure over the West, bringing the first accumulating snowfall to all elevations of north central Colorado. The cold front associated with the storm blasted through our area just before sunrise, and I have accumulated almost 4” of snow today on my deck near the base of the mountain with 8” shown on the Steamboat mid-mountain powdercam.
The snows have become more showery late this afternoon, and these showers will linger overnight and through tomorrow morning in the favorable cold, moist and unstable northwest flow. We will see a small break in the unsettled weather from later Monday into Tuesday before two more waves of energy keep the cold and unsettled weather going through Thursday.
The first of these waves is currently located in the Gulf of Alaska and will force the current storm eastward on Tuesday before grazing our area starting in the afternoon. An associated stationary front looks to be around our area for at least Tuesday afternoon which will bring more snow showers, heavier and more numerous at the higher elevations.
The second wave is currently located near the Aleutian Islands and may or may not interact with that stationary front. While the bulk of that second storm looks to bring a round of moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall to our area Wednesday night into Thursday, the interaction between this storm and that stationary front will determine if we see continued light to sometimes moderate showers through Tuesday night and the first half of Wednesday or not.
Along with the snowy week, cold temperatures will also be noteworthy, considering our average high temperature is 55 F and average low temperature is 25 F. Our high temperature today of 42 F occurred just after midnight, though our daytime high was only 33 F, over twenty degrees below average. Look for low temperatures in the teens tonight and possibly approaching the single digits for Tuesday morning, While we will see warmer high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, they will likely stay below the mid-forties. And the Thursday storm will be even colder, with another day mired in the thirties and low temperatures in the mid-single digits on Friday morning under clearing skies.
While it currently looks like a nice and more seasonable weekend, I’ll have more regarding that forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Wintry weather arrives for Sunday
Thursday, October 20, 2022
A stunning fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon with cloudless skies and temperatures in the upper sixties. An approaching wintry storm will drop temperatures several degrees and increase breezes on Friday, with another several degree drop on Saturday along with windy conditions. The weather changes in earnest Saturday night as the high temperature for Sunday will occur at midnight and precipitation begins as rain in the lower elevations and snow around mid-mountain. Continued falling temperatures and increasing precipitation rates are forecast through the day Sunday, with several inches of snow in town likely by Monday morning.
Our wintry storm is currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska and is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast later Friday. After a gorgeous fall day today with temperatures approaching seventy degrees, look for increases breezes from the northwest and west on Friday with temperatures dropping several degrees.
While Saturday morning may start sunny, clouds will increase in the afternoon, knocking another several degrees off the temperatures and winds will substantially increase first from the west and then the southwest as the approaching storm dives into the Great Basin.
Precipitation should begin overnight Saturday, with rain in town and snow above mid-mountain, though snow levels are forecast to drop from 9500′ Saturday night to 4800′ by Monday morning as the strongest part of the storm passes overhead. We may see a rain-snow mix in town for much of the day Sunday, with the heaviest precipitation rates forecast through the day and all snow likely later in the day. High temperatures may not make it out of the low forties in town on Sunday and twenties at mountain-top, with accumulating snow at pass level and snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour at times making travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass.
After Sunday, most will not be surprised to see several inches of snow in town by Monday morning, with considerably more at the higher elevations, possibly exceeding a foot at the top of Mt. Werner. Be sure to check the newly updated Steamboat powdercam up top and the Thunderhead powdercam at mid-mountain through the day Sunday as our first winter-like storm barrels through the area.
While the strongest part of the storm is associated with a leading wave ejecting out of the low pressure area on Sunday, the bulk of the storm is forecast to move through Colorado on Monday as weather forecast models show it splitting. So look for precipitation to end Monday morning, but with even colder temperatures by several degrees than on Sunday. And while Monday morning will be cold with low temperatures likely in the teens, we may approach the single digits by Tuesday morning.
The screaming message is to get outside and finish your outdoor projects by Saturday ahead of the wintry weather. Be sure to check back on Sunday afternoon where I’ll be discussing the ongoing storm and what looks like more snow later in the work week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative.
More gorgeous fall weather ahead
Sunday, October 16, 2022
Another brilliant fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area late this Sunday morning with bluebird skies and temperatures in the mid-fifties, on their way to the mid-sixties. More sunny and warm days with seasonably cool nights are on tap for the rest of the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday forecast to be the warmest days with high temperatures approaching seventy degrees. Take advantage of the beautiful weather and great fall color hanging on below 9000′ this week as a wintry change may be in our future around next weekend.
The atmosphere is still favoring the current dominant pattern of a ridge of high pressure over the West sandwiched between two deep areas of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific and eastern North America. Additionally, an eddy cut off from the jet stream is currently traversing the Desert Southwest, though that will be too far south to affect on our weather.
So look for more gorgeous fall weather through the work week as the ridge of high pressure moves only slightly eastward, with high temperatures five to ten degrees above our average of 58 F and low temperatures within several degrees of our average of 26 F. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be the warmest days of the the week and high temperatures may even flirt with the seventy degree mark!
Enjoy the remaining fall color while spending as much time outside this week and finishing up outdoor projects as it appears an abrupt change in our weather comes as soon as next weekend. A storm from Siberia is currently approaching the Kamchatka Peninsula and is forecast to continue to mix with cold air from the North Pole through the work week as it crosses through the Aleutian Islands. Concurrently, the southern part of the eastern Pacific low pressure area is forecast to form another eddy that loiters well off the coast of California before eventually interacting with the incoming Siberian storm.
There is weather forecast model uncertainty with that interaction and the timing and strength of the eventual storm that may change our weather towards winter around next weekend. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon as there will be a lot to talk about.
Seasonable fall weather ahead
Thursday, October 13, 2022
Partly sunny skies and moderately breezy winds with temperatures right at sixty degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. The weather forecast for this weekend does not change much save for a weak cool front on Saturday that may bring some increased breezes and clouds, but do little to affect our temperatures.
The persistent ridge of high pressure over the West is still being anchored between areas of low pressure over eastern North America and the eastern Pacific. Additionally, an eddy cut off from the jet stream is spinning just off the coast of southern California.
Our breezy weather is due to the proximity of the jet stream which represents the boundary between warm and cold air; in our case the warm air over the West and the cold air over eastern North America. Since we have different air masses on either side of our area, neither will dominate so expect seasonable temperatures within five degrees of our average high of 60 F and average low of 27 F through the weekend.
A small Pacific disturbance currently traveling over the top of the ridge is forecast to mix with some cold air associated with vortex of low pressure currently centered just north of the Great Lakes and bring a cool front through our area on Saturday. Initially it looked like a grazing cool front, but in an odd atmospheric dance, the energy associated with the southern end of that cool front now looks to move westward and encourage the California eddy to move across the Desert Southwest through the weekend and early next week.
So while we will see increased clouds on Saturday that may last into Sunday morning, not much change is forecast for the temperatures or breezes. There is a chance that clouds could hang around through noon on Sunday depending upon the interaction between the eddy and cool front, though any precipitation is currently forecast to be confined to our east and more so south.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to move eastward through the following work week for more mostly sunny skies and temperatures a bit above average. The fate of the ridge of high pressure by the end of the work week is uncertain at this time, with the nice fall weather continuing if the ridge stays intact and a possibly stormy pattern change if the ridge breaks down. I hope to know more about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Winds pick up ahead of mostly dry cold front Tuesday night
Sunday, October 9, 2022
Another spectacular fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties. Similar weather is expected for Columbus Day, but with afternoon breezes from the west, before a mostly dry cold front is forecast Tuesday night. Look for winds to increase during the day with a small chance of rain showers at the lower elevations and snow showers at the higher elevations in the afternoon and evening before the atmosphere quickly dries after midnight behind the cold front. More sunny weather with seasonable temperatures is forecast for the rest of the work week.
As has been the case recently, two deep and cold areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific and Hudson Bay sandwich a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. A wave of energy currently moving through the Aleutian Islands is forecast to cross the British Columbia coast Monday afternoon before moving through Idaho on Tuesday and bringing a cold front through our area Tuesday evening.
While tomorrow will be similar to today, but with some breezes from the west, the winds will pick up on Tuesday with gusts over 30 mph by the afternoon as we see meager chances for rain shower below 10,000′ and snow showers above in the afternoon and evening. The snow level will drop during the evening and reach as low as 8000′ by Wednesday morning, though the atmosphere quickly dries behind the front so no precipitation is expected after midnight. There may be snowflakes in the evening as low as mid-mountain, which you can monitor at the Steamboat mid-mountain powdercam, though accumulations at all elevations currently look unlikely.
The ridge of high pressure over the West Coast quickly rebuilds behind the departing storm, so look for lots of sun and seasonable temperatures within five degrees of our average high of 61 F and average low of 28 F through the rest of the work week.
The weather forecast models agree that dry weather will persist into next weekend, though we may be susceptible to a grazing cool front as waves of energy travel down the east side of the ridge of high pressure. So enjoy the mostly sunny days and cool nights, except for the brief interruption in our stellar weather on Tuesday, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
