Dry weather continues with some cooling to start the weekend
Thursday, July 13, 2023
Temperatures are in the low seventies under mostly sunny skies late this Thursday morning in Steamboat Springs. After another hot day today in the upper eighties, temperatures cool into the low eighties on Friday and Saturday before they warm toward the hottest day of the summer so far on Monday. Precipitation chances are nil through the weekend until some moisture sneaks into the region around midweek.
A flat and dry ridge of high pressure currently over the West is bookended by low pressure areas extending south from both the Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay. Cool air brought southward on the backside of the Hudson Bay low will graze our area and knock about five degrees off our high temperatures of the last few days as they cool to around our average of 83 F on Friday and 84 F on Saturday.
Incidentally, 84 F marks the highest average temperature of the summer, making the weeks between mid July and early August climatologically the hottest of the year.
And after a couple of days in the low eighties, Sunday’s high temperatures move back to the mid-eighties with Monday forecast to be the warmest day of the summer so far with our first ninety degree day. There is some relief by Tuesday as that Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to move across the northern United States through the early work week and bring at least some mid and upper level moisture and clouds starting around Tuesday.
Eventually, longer term weather forecast models have that Gulf of Alaska storm merging with the Hudson Bay vortex around the end of the next work week, and that may force a ridge of high pressure to build over the West. This may allow moisture from the south to move northward over our area in what would be the beginning of our North American Monsoon, though that is uncertain as it is over a week away.
Enjoy what is looking like a very pleasant summer weekend, and I’ll be back with my regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss our precipitation chances from the incoming moisture.
Warmest temperatures of the summer so far by midweek
Sunday, July 9, 2023
A beautiful Sunday morning is over the Steamboat Springs area with temperatures near seventy degrees under mostly sunny skies. Other than some clouds on Monday with a small chance of showers, temperatures will warm from the low eighties starting today to the upper eighties by midweek with almost no chance of precipitation.
A ridge of high pressure currently extends from the Desert Southwest northward to the Arctic Circle while a large, cold and persistent vortex of cold air is centered over Hudson Bay. Additionally, a small and relatively dry eddy of weakening low pressure is over central California and is forecast to move through the Great Basin tonight and near our area on Monday.
After a mostly sunny day today with high temperatures right around our average of 83 F, we may see some clouds tomorrow and similar temperatures with only a small chance of passing showers as that Caifornia eddy moves overhead.
Temperatures warm further toward 85 F on a sunny Tuesday and upper eighties on a continued sunny Wednesday for the warmest day of the summer so far. Pacific energy traveling across the northern U.S. will eventually mix with cold air from the Hudson Bay vortex by midweek and keep relatively cool air over the upper Midwest through much of the work week. Some of this cooler air may graze our area as early as Thursday and knock high temperatures down a few degrees, with perhpas an additional few degrees trimmed on Friday.
But precipitation will be hard to come by, and this looks to continue through next weekend. So enjoy the summer work week ahead, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon with details about the coming weekend weather.
Warming and drying weather through the weekend
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Comfortable temperatures in the low seventies with mostly sunny skies and breezy winds generally from the west are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. There will be a chance for some late day and evening showers thanks to a nearby cool front, with those chances decreasing for Friday along with slightly warmer temperatures. That trend continues on Saturday, and a dry Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend.
Ridges of high pressure are currently over the Gulf of Alaska and the Desert Southwest extending to Texas while a deep vortex of cold air is centered over Hudson Bay. A cool front associated with cool air moving southward on the backside of the Hudson Bay vortex has been over or just north of our area the last few days, which has led to the thunder and lightning shows since Independence Day.
It looks like we will have a repeat performance later today and this evening, with the possibility of showers dropping off after midnight as the cool front is slowly pushed to our north thanks to the strengthening ridge of high pressure to our south.
We should see less of a chance for showers on Friday, with high temperatures reaching around eighty degrees, a couple degrees below our average of 82 F. That trend continues on Saturday as the cool front is nudged to the Wyoming border, though a stray shower producing more wind than rain cannot be ruled out.
Another bump in temperatures to right around average is forecast for Sunday under mostly sunny skies. The ridge of high pressure to our south looks to build over the central Rockies through much of next week, leading to above average temperatures with almost no chance of precipitation. We will likely see the warmest temperatures of the summer so far, and I’ll have more about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Shower chances increase starting Monday night
Sunday, July 2, 2023
Temperatures in the Steamboat Springs area are in the mid-seventies under mostly sunny skies with breezy winds from the west this Sunday mid-afternoon. While we may touch eighty degrees today, warmer high temperatures in the low eighties along with continued breezy winds are in the forecast for the rest of the work week. Accompanying the warmer temperatures will be chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers, highest on Indepedence Day, that may kick off as soon as Monday night.
A cold area of low pressure is currently located in central Alberta while a ridge of high pressure sits over the Desert Southwest. Our area is seeing breezy winds from the west as the jet stream is funneled between these features, and those winds look to remain over our area through the work week.
The Alberta storm is forecast to move toward Hudson Bay through midweek, with a wave of cool air moving south behind the storm and toward our area by Monday night. Monday should be mostly sunny and marginally the hottest day of the week by a degree or two with temperatures reaching several degrees above our average of 81 F.
Energy and some moisture moving along the approaching cool front will bring clouds with modest chances of nocturnal, or nighttime showers on Monday night, and though Independence Day should start sunny, those modest chances remain for Tuesday afternoon and evening. The cool front won’t do much to our high temperatures, only lowering them by a degree or two, but should make the daytime breezes stronger.
Decreasing chances for showers remain on Wednesday afternoon and evening behind the front, with even less of a chance by Thursday afternoon as the afternoon breezes persist. And though Friday is looking warm and dry, another cool front is forecast to approach our area sometime during the weekend, though that may have a tough time reaching our area thanks to the strengthening ridge of high pressure to our south.
I’ll know more about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon. So until then, enjoy the Fourth of July celebrations, and perhaps bring a waterproof shell to guard against any showers briefly dampening outdoor activities.
Afternoon storm chances highest on Friday and Independence Day
Thursday, June 29, 2023
The streak of cloudless skies this past week has ended on this Thursday as afternoon clouds and temperatures in the mid-seventies are over the Steamboat Springs area. These clouds may produce a shower today, but more likely on Friday as a weak cool front grazes our area. Generally dry weather and warming temperatures are then expected Saturday through Monday before another weak cool front brings afternoon and evening storm chances back for Independence Day.
The remnants of the eddy I talked about in last Sunday’s weather narrative is currently moving through Utah as originally forecast. The clouds over our area ahead of the eddy may produce a shower, though any rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground thanks to the dry lower atmosphere and produce gusty winds.
What is left of the eddy is forecast to move through Colorado on Friday, and winds will shift to be first from the southwest in the morning ahead of the front to the west around noon with the front and finally the northwest by the afternoon behind the front.
Our best chance of showers should be along and behind the front, and even though there will be a better chance of wetting rains as compared to today, a fair bit of wind should still accompany any showers. High temperatures will fall into the low seventies, not quite ten degrees below our average of eighty degrees.
The atmosphere mostly dries for the rest of the weekend with temperatures warming into the upper seventies on Saturday, the low eighties by Sunday and mid-eighties on Monday under plenty of sun. There may be some afternoon clouds around, especially on Sunday, but precipitation should be hard to come by.
But a storm currently just east of the Aleutian Islands is forecast to cross the British Columbia coast on Saturday and travel into the Canadian Prairies by early week. Right now, weather forecast models agree another weak cool front associated with the storm will be dragged through our area around Independence Day, with chances for afternoon and evening storms.
But that is five days away, so be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details on the Fourth of July holiday weather.
