Shower chances and some smoke for the weekend
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Temperatures in the low eighties and mostly sunny skies are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday afternoon. After the past couple of days of cooler weather with some hints of fall, the more usual summertime weather returns for the weekend with chances for showers each day. And unfortunately it appears like we will see some smoke from the wildfires burning in Idaho.
A ridge of high pressure currently sitting over the Intermountain West is under assault by an eddy located over Lake Tahoe slowly moving east and a developing storm over Wisconsin moving south. The center of the high pressure is currently over Idaho and part of it is forecast to move southeastward toward Colorado tonight. A chaotic pattern then emerges that will make the specifics of a weather forecast difficult, especially for north-central Colorado.
After a warm and dry day today, with high temperatures several degrees above our average of 81 F, we should see increasing haze on Friday as smoke from the Idaho wildfires moves overhead thanks to the southward moving high pressure cell. By the afternoon, that cell is forecast to be dissipating over central Colorado, but not before encouraging monsoonal moisture from the south to eventually move over our area by the afternoon, bringing the chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. While the storms are far from certain, we should at least see some clouds around which should give us several degrees of cooling.
By Saturday, that Lake Tahoe eddy is forecast to slide into the Great Basin, with the southerly flow ahead of the eddy encouraging more monsoonal moisture to move over Colorado. The winds overhead will be variable, and it is not clear if the smoke hangs around and if we see better moisture, so a chance of afternoon storms remain, including the possibility that they may occur overnight. And if we get the storms, rainfall could be heavy at times along with small hail, frequent lighting and gusty winds.
By Sunday, it appears the Great Basin eddy will have moved far enough east to directly affect our weather, so expect good chances for showers during the day and overnight, with high temperatures around average. This looks to extend into Monday followed by a drying trend, but check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see if that forecast persists.
Showers likely through Monday
Sunday, August 14, 2022
A nice shower has passed through the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon and dropped temperatures from the low eighties to the mid-sixties. Shower chances look to stay high for the rest of today, overnight, and through Monday before decreasing for the rest of the work week ahead of another possible monsoon surge for next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over much of the West has been and is still sandwiched between two persistent areas of low pressure, one over the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska and another centered over Hudson Bay and extending southward along the East Coast. Storminess traveling through the Gulf of Alaska and crossing the British Columbia coast has been modifying the ridge of high pressure this summer by either deforming it or nudging it eastward, or both, as it travels along the Canadian border well north of our area.
The monsoonal moisture plume drawn northward on the backside of the ridge of high pressure has been incredibly persistent this summer, and looks to hang on past its usual mid-August demise. Currently, some energy crossing the Pacific Northwest coast has nudged the ridge of high pressure to the east and reinforced a wave moving northward on the backside of the high pressure, which will keep good shower chances present for today, tonight and tomorrow. The clouds and showers tomorrow should drop our high temperatures on Monday into the mid-seventies, around five degrees below our average of 82 F.
By Tuesday, as that wave of energy moves to our east, the ridge of high pressure squirts back to the west and brings warmer and drier air overhead. There is weather forecast model disagreement on whether there will be enough moisture around for Tuesday showers, but more sun than Monday will allow high temperatures to approach average.
Wednesday and Thursday are looking on the dry side with just above average temperatures, though a quick afternoon or evening shower cannot be ruled out. By Friday, the weather forecast models agree that a wave of energy traveling through the area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will affect the area of high pressure over the West in some way, and the winds from the south ahead of that low pressure may carry another surge of monsoon moisture overhead for the weekend. So stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll know more about the shower chances for the coming weekend.
Moderating temperatures and increasing shower chances for the weekend
Thursday, August 11, 2022
Temperatures are already in the mid-eighties this Thursday afternoon along with some developing storm clouds along the higher terrain. The current stretch of unseasonably hot temperatures this week will cool a couple of degrees each day through early next week, along with good chances for afternoon and evening showers thanks to another surge of monsoonal moisture.
A ridge of high pressure extending through the Rocky Mountains is currently sandwiched between broad areas of low pressure located off the Pacific Northwest coast and Hudson Bay. Clockwise rotation around the center of the high pressure located just to our north near the Wyoming border is bringing winds from the southeast and east overhead, which is unusual and opposite of what normally occurs.
Bob Adams airport recorded a high temperature of 92 F at 5:15 pm DST yesterday thanks to the ridge of high pressure, but we also saw elevated temperatures and winds in some areas of town on Tuesday and Wednesday as shown in the accompanying time series for the last three days of temperature at my weather station near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort and winds near the top. Note the temperature spike from 64 F to 74 F just before midnight on the 10th and the near 80 F temperatures that extended through midnight on the 11th in the first chart. Also note the strong winds from the southeast observed near the top of the mountain each night, which carried the mountain-top air down the slope of the Park Range where it warmed as it descended.
The low pressure area off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to rotate and weaken as it is forced into the Canadian Rockies through the weekend by yet another mass of cold air currently moving over the Aleutian Islands. This will weaken the ridge of high pressure overhead and nudge it eastward, which will allow monsoonal moisture from the south to move overhead.
The storms today will probably be confined first to the higher elevations before they move off the terrain and bring a threat of showes to the lower elevations through this evening. As the high pressure continues to move to our east tomorrow, winds switch to be from the south with a better chance of showers for the afternoon and evening as monsoonal moisture is brought overhead, and high temperatures drop a few degrees.
More of the same is expected for the weekend and into early next week as the ridge of high pressure is nudged further to the east, eventually forcing winds to be from the southwest and west in the more usual pattern. While high temperatures continue to drop a few degrees each day, reaching our average high of 82 F by Sunday, there are also likely to be areas of energy rotating around the high pressure for Sunday and early next week which will provide a better environment for wetting rains.
So be on the lookout for storms moving in the opposite direction of what you’re used to today, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss the prospects for another week of monsoonal shower chances.
Warm and dry weather to start the work week
Sunday, August 7, 2022
Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper seventies, on their way to the low eighties, are over the Steamboat Springs area early on this delightful Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the mid eighties on Monday and upper eighties on Tuesday and Wednesday along with meager precipitation chances before temperatures cool and precipitation chances increase for the end of the work week and next weekend.
A weak and dry cool front this morning will keep our high temperature in the low eighties today, which is right around our average for this time of year. An eddy cut off from the main jet stream is currently spinning off the northern California coast, and winds from the south ahead of the eddy will bring warm and dry air northward as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast on Monday and Tuesday.
So expect rising temperatures and dry weather through midweek, with Monday expected to be in the mid eighties while Tuesday and Wednesday will see the hottest temperatures of the week as they threaten the ninety degree mark.
Energy moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to nudge the eddy off the California coast eastward by midweek, which will also nudge the ridge of high pressure eastward, allowing another surge of monsoonal moisture on the backside of the ridge of high pressure to move northward and toward our area.
Shower chances are expected to increase as soon as later Thursday, with higher chances currently forecast for Friday and the weekend as the California eddy first moves northward toward Vancouver by the end of the work week and then eastward along the Canadian border through next weekend. Note that the forecast for next weekend is similar to the wet forecast made a week ago for this weekend, which did not verify, so be sure to check back Thursday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative to see if the wetter weekend forecast stays consistent.
Weekend precipitation chances plummet
Thursday, August 4, 2022
Sunny skies with temperatures in the low eighties, on their way to the upper eighties, are over the Steamboat Springs area early this Thursday afternoon. What was looking like a wet weekend only a couple of days ago has trended significantly drier, with the best storm chances now limited to Friday afternoon and evening.
A ridge of high pressure is currently sitting over most of the continental U.S while one area of low pressure is located just east of Vancouver and another exists as an eddy off the West Coast. While the bulk of the Vancouver storm will move east across the Canadian Plains over the next two days, some of that storm elongates southwestward toward the eddy off the West Coast, eventually forming an additional small storm that is forecast to move across Montana and drag a cool front through our area early Sunday.
While these pieces are evolving to our northwest, a wave moving through the monsoonal moisture plume located on the backside of the large ridge of high pressure is forecast to move northward through Nevada on Friday and Idaho on Saturday as it merges with the eventual Montana storm.
Earlier in the week, the storm around Vancouver was forecast to stay north of our area, allowing that disturbance in the monsoonal flow to move overhead through the weekend, but the elongation of the Vancouver storm to the southwest has changed that trajectory. So while we will still see good chances for afternoon and evening storms on Friday, a much drier Saturday and Sunday is now in our future as the monsoonal moisture plume is forecast to split to our northwest and southeast. There may still be a passing shower around, especially early Sunday as a cool front grazes our area, but the threat of widespread rainfall is all but gone.
While the elongation of that Vancouver storm to the southwest destroyed our precipitation chances for Saturday and likely Sunday, the cooler air associated with the further southern extent of the storm will grace our area for the weekend, with high temperatures eventually cooling into the low eighties by Sunday, which is a couple of degrees below our now declining average of 83 F.
Dry weather and increasing temperatures are expected for the bulk of the following work week, with another monsoonal surge of moisture currently predicted for next weekend. Be sure to stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss how hot the coming work week will be as well as any changes to the weather forecast for next weekend.
