Unsettled work week ahead
Sunday, March 5, 2023
After some sun and wind and temperatures in the mid-thirties in Steamboat Springs late this Sunday morning, snows have restarted with several inches of accumulation at the Steamboat Ski Resort by late this Sunday afternoon. Another several inches are likely to fall by midnight before they taper off by Monday morning with some clearing skies advertised for parts of the day. Our area will be right on the southern edge of light snows on Tuesday and Wednesday before good chances for snow reappear starting Wednesday night and lingering through Thursday.
A sharp ridge of high pressure currently over the eastern Pacific extends through Alaska toward the North Pole while an area of low pressure is anchored off the Pacific Northwest coast near the base of the ridge. Northerly winds on the east side of the high pressure are directing waves of cold air and energy around the somewhat stationary storm, resulting in a stationary front that extends from the base of the storm eastward across northern California, Nevada, Utah and northern Colorado. This front separates the colder air to our north from the warmer air to our south.
The snows from today were the result of some energy ejecting out of the storm yesterday and moving over our area this afternoon, accompanied by the strong winds of the jet stream overhead. The bulk of the 3-6” that should be reported at mid-mountain Monday morning that has not already fallen today will fall by midnight.
Weather forecast models are not in complete agreement as to the strength and location of the ejecting waves through most of Wednesday, and we may have some light snow showers at times as the front meanders south and perhaps even some sun as the front meanders north. Any accumulations are likely to be very light, with 1-4” the best hope on the Tuesday and Wednesday morning mid-mountain ski reports, though there also may be zeros reported.
Weather forecast models agree that a stronger wave of energy moves overhead by Wednesday night even as cold air from the northern latitudes replenishes the storm through the work week and beyond. Unfortunately, they disagree about the details, with the American GFS faster, stronger and wetter. That model is currently predicting as much as 6-12” between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, though the European ECMWF, which I’m currently inclined to support since it has forecast this weather setup more accurately so far, has less than half of that.
A break in the unsettled weather is forecast by both models for at least some of Friday, and agree about some sort of storm for the weekend, though they disagree on how that storm may evolve. So be sure to check back Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details about the possible weekend storm and what may be a break in the unsettled weather pattern for the beginning of the following work week.
Short breaks in snowfall later today and Saturday
Thursday, March 2, 2023
Temperatures are in the mid-twenties in the town of Steamboat Springs and mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort late this Thursday morning under lightly snowing skies. We will see a short break in the wintry weather that has been over the area this past week later today before a modest storm quickly moves through on Friday. Another short break is advertised during the day Saturday before we see chances for snow from Saturday night through the beginning of the next work week.
The storm which dropped incredible amounts of snow to our west is now quickly scooting along southern New Mexico and will be through Texas by Friday morning. Mammoth Mountain, for example, reported an incredible 65” in the three days ending yesterday, and Arizona Snowbowl reported a monster three feet this morning!
Our snow reports were underwhelming by any measure, though we did pick up an inch after the morning report today at mid-mountain and two inches up top as shown on the powdercams. The snows have stopped for now and we may see some clearing today, especially at the lower elevations, before a quick-moving storm in favorable northwest flow moves through the area on Friday. The bulk of the predicted 3-6” for the Saturday morning mid-mountain ski report should fall during the day Friday with with the rest falling in the evening and tapering off by Saturday morning.
Some sun is currently forecast during the day Saturday, and that will be our last break before unsettled weather returns for an extended period starting Saturday night thanks to another large and complex storm forecast to develop off the Pacific Northwest coast Saturday and loiter there in some fashion through at least midweek.
Similar but slightly different than the last storm cycle, energy and moisture ejecting out of the storm will move across the West in winds generally from the west and west-southwest direction. As the first wave approaches our area Saturday night, winds will increase with average winds speeds approaching 40 mph on the mountain and gusts twice that. While the strongest winds are forecast for the overnight, they may only decrease to 30 mph by Sunday morning with gusts again about twice that, possibly leading to some more lift issues early in the day.
Luckily the winds are forecast to subside during the day as snows pick up, and while we won’t see much snow on the Sunday morning report, we could see 2-5” fall during the day. However, even at this short range, weather forecast models are wavering on how much moisture moves overhead and the location of the best storm energy.
The Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to loiter there through at least midweek as ejecting storm energy is replenished by more incoming Pacific energy. This forces a stationary front to set up shop across parts of Nevada, Utah and Colorado, with the front drifting north ahead of ejecting energy and south behind it. Our snowfall will eventually be determined by the location of the front and how much moisture each ejecting wave carries.
So lots of uncertainty regarding snow amounts, but the cool and unsettled weather looks likely. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll hazard some snowfall guesses and take a peek at what lies beyond the wintry start to the work week.
Cool and unsettled weather to end February and start March
Sunday, February 26, 2023
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in downtown Steamboat Springs and 21 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort this Sunday mid-afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. A storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska will bring chances for snow through midweek, along with breezy to windy conditions, especially on Tuesday.
And while the temperature near the top of the Steamboat ski reached 27 F at 9:30 this morning, increasing clouds dropped the temperature a few degrees before noon and a weak cool front associated with a storm well to our south further dropped the temperature to the current 21 F. Unfortunately these cooler temperatures are all we are going to see out of the storm to our south as dry air behind the storm will preclude snowfall chances for this afternoon.
But the next storm in the Gulf of Alaska promises more snowfall chances as waves of energy eject out ahead of the storm through midweek before the remaining part of the storm makes landfall along the California coast early Wednesday and moves to the south of the Four Corners by Thursday.
Winds will shift from the current northwest direction to be from the west and the southwest as these waves of energy approach and move overhead through midweek and high temperatures in town fall back to the low twenties, ten to fifteen degrees below our average of 36 F. While moisture initially looked sufficient for at least moderate snowfall for most of the early week period, it now appears that the moisture will be more episodic and tied the passage of each wave.
So now, I’m only expecting 1-4” for the Monday morning mid-mountain report, with another 1-4” during the day as the first weak wave ejecting from the Gulf of Alaska storm moves through. The next wave from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon looks more promising, but is also expected to bring wind, with average wind speed at mountain-top increasing to 30 mph by early afternoon and gusts around twice that.
So after a 1-4” Tuesday morning report, with most of that falling on Monday, we could see another 2-5” during the windy day before snowfall ends during the afternoon. By Wednesday morning, the storm is forecast to be in northern Nevada and close to Las Vegas by the afternoon, reaching the Four Corners by Thursday morning. During this time, the last ejecting wave for us will move overhead during the day Wednesday and bring another 1-4” of snowfall and linger overnight where another inch or two may fall.
It does appear like we will see a break in the unsettled weather later Thursday and overnight before a promising but quick-moving wave in our favorable northwest flow moves across during the day Friday. Next weekend looks dry as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds ahead of another developing storm in the Gulf of Alaska that may affect us the following work week. I’ll be talking about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Warming temperatures to start the weekend after snow showers tonight
Thursday, February 23, 2023
Briefly sunny skies are over the Steamboat Springs area on this cold Thursday late-morning with temperatures in town and near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort around eight degrees. After another round of snow showers starting this afternoon and lasting into Friday, relatively quiet weather with warming temperatures is forecast for the first half the weekend. But the break will be short-lived as a storm moving to our south will restart the snow showers later Sunday.
Most of the monster storm that affected parts of the country from coast to coast is still currently centered over Pacific Northwest coast. While the Utah ski resorts did very well from this storm on Wednesday, and the southern and some central Colorado ski resorts posted two day totals approaching two feet, the Steamboat Ski Resort only mustered an inch at mid-mountain by Wednesday morning and an additional three inches this morning, along with a lot of wind.
This was a disappointing storm for us, and a busted forecast by me, as a couple of crucial ingredients for snowfall were absent. Not only was the atmosphere drier than expected thanks to some dry air that was sucked into the massive storm as an ejecting wave moved overhead, but the strong winds from the south and southwest scoured the pool of low-level cold air in the Yampa Valley that would have lifted those winds and created snowfall in an overruning event.
So now, while most of the storm is still to our west, we’ve seen some sun this Thursday mid-morning ahead of another couple of weak waves of snowfall ejecting from the parent storm that will start this afternoon and last into Friday. Snowflakes should start falling later today, and thanks to the generally unfavorable winds from the southwest and warming atmosphere, we might only see 1-4” of snowfall for the Friday morning mid-mountain report with another inch or two possible in the morning.
We may see a brief period of sun behind these waves on Friday afternoon before an even weaker wave brings the chance for some more light snow showers later Friday night and into Saturday morning with minimal accumulations.
Meanwhile the monster storm is still to our west and is forecast to move south along the California Coast on Saturday before being forced eastward into Arizona early Sunday and the Four Corners region later Sunday by another incoming Pacific storm.
We may see some periods of sun by Saturday afternoon and stars Saturday night, but clouds will thicken and lower through the day Sunday as the storm swings along the southern Colorado border. Snow showers should start later in the day and persist through the overnight and part of the day Monday as winds behind the storm finally swing around to our favorable northwest direction for the first time in a week.
Snowfall amounts are likely to be modest, and will be dependent upon how much moisture is in the northwest flow behind the storm and how long that northwest flow persists. And behind that storm, the weather forecast models are predicting that next incoming and possibly significant Pacific storm to be overhead by midweek. So check back on Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll be discussing the upcoming unsettled work week.
Snowy week coming up
Sunday, February 19, 2023
Temperatures are in the low twenties in the town of Steamboat Springs and eight degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort late this Sunday morning under lightly snowing skies. The snow showers are currently tapering off and will end today before more chances for snow reappear for most of the work week. After warmer early week temperatures, a significant storm is forecast from later Tuesday into Thursday morning that will bring another cold arctic air mass overhead by later Wednesday.
Currently, a ridge of high pressure is over the eastern Pacific and an eddy of low pressure is off the Baja Peninsula. A chunk of cold air originally from Siberia will ride over the ridge of high pressure today before crossing the Pacific Northwest coast on Tuesday. This wave is currently drawing in some moist subtropical air moving northward along the western side of the Pacific ridge, and will also mix with more cold air from Alaska tonight and western Canada tomorrow as it moves over the top of the ridge and then down its eastern side.
The end result is a large and powerful storm that will bring significant snowfall to our area from later Tuesday into Thursday morning. Ahead of the storm, snow showers will taper off this afternoon before being restarted by a subtle wave of energy in breezy northwest flow on Monday. Showers may end for a time behind the wave, or not, as energy ejecting out of the massive Pacific Northwest storm begins moving over our area. Winds will turn to be from first the west on Monday and then the southwest by Tuesday ahead of the storm as temperatures rise toward freezing in town on Monday and mid-thirties on Tuesday and likely Wednesday.
We could see 2-5” of snow by the Tuesday morning mid-mountain ski report, and snow showers during the day Tuesday should be quite light as the atmosphere warms and stabilizes thanks to the winds from the southwest. Meanwhile, the storm to our west begins moving into the Great Basin on Tuesday. The cold arctic air mass associated with the storm will sink through Wyoming on Tuesday before encountering the southwest winds ahead of the storm which will stall the cold front near or over our area on Wednesday.
While winds from the southwest are usually not favorable for our area, we have already seem several instances of heavy snowfall this season as the moist air from the southwest overruns the cold air to the north. So right now I would expect good snowfall from Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Wednesday into Thursday along and behind the cold front, with snowfall quickly becoming light and fluffy behind the front Wednesday night. We could see 5-10” of snowfall at mid-mountain by the Wednesday morning ski report, and another 8-16” by the cold Thursday morning report.
There is a fair bit of uncertainty in the evolving weather as these large storms often end up behaving differently than forecast even a day or two in advance. So enjoy the snowy week, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon with a review of the storm totals as well as a discussion of what currently looks like an unsettled start to next weekend.
