More snow through Tuesday
Sunday, December 22, 2013
About 2” on my deck this morning from about 9pm last night, although the Steamboat ski area reported 7.5” at mid and 8” up top on the morning report. A ridge over the Gulf of Alaska is forcing moist northwest flow over our area, and embedded waves will continue to produce light snow through today and most of tomorrow. One such wave is currently moving through the area, and another is timed for tonight, with both producing another 5-10” by the Monday morning report.
Snow showers may taper off by the end of the day Monday before beginning again early Tuesday as the last wave in this series passes over the area midday. Only light snow is expected, and the fast movement of this last wave should only produce 1-3” by Wednesday morning’s report.
Warming and drying should commence Christmas Day and last into Thursday, though valleys become noticeably colder than the hill as inversions reform and strengthen. A dry and weak wave grazes our area on Friday, producing some clouds and slightly lower temperatures. Weather will turn nice again for at least the first part of the weekend before another storm is forecast around Sunday.
Snow through Monday
Friday, December 20, 2013
I had about 2” on my deck this morning, and light snow has persisted this morning. The Steamboat ski area is reporting 4” new as of 11am this morning, and I would expect another inch or two before a break in snowfall occurs tonight. We did get that overrunning event last night which brought snow a bit earlier than I anticipated.
Models have trended a bit stronger with the next wave timed for Saturday afternoon into the night, and possibly another one for Sunday morning. Snow should increase throughout the day with an inch or two by the time the lifts close. Of course, that will be reported in Sunday morning’s report, so with that I would expect 4-8” by Sunday morning, with additional snow during the day.
Generally light snow will continue through Monday, with the valleys possibly seeing some sun by late in the day. Not much additional accumulations are expected during the day to add to the likely 2-4” report on Monday morning. A weak wave passes Tuesday night in northwest flow, but models have trended drier, and no significant precipitation is expected. Much drier air and sunshine infiltrates the area on Wednesday, although another weak and dry wave will create some clouds late on Thursday in continued northwest flow. Otherwise quiet and pleasant weather is expected into the beginning of next weekend.
Warm front stronger than expected and will delay snows till Friday
Thursday, December 19, 2013
A storm along the southern California coast has created southwest flow over our area that has pushed a cold front to our north today. However, this cold front is forecast to slip into our area later today or tonight, and may produce some snow as the southwest flow aloft overruns the front. It appears that weak northwest flow will develop behind the front sometime on Friday leading to a better chance of accumulating snows in the 2-4” range by the end of the day.
As the California low moves along the Mexican border and eventually east of us by Saturday, unsettled weather with persistent snow showers will continue through Saturday and Sunday. Furthermore, additional waves of energy in the northwest flow will help to intermittently intensify the showers, though amounts are still expected to be light. I would expect 2-4” each day of the weekend before the skies clear by mid-day Monday.
A nice day Tuesday before another wave form the northwest is expected by late in the day or Wednesday, though current model forecasts have only light snow predicted. Yet another dry wave is expected to drop temperatures a bit later in the work week, but no precipitation is currently forecast with this wave.
It appears a significant pattern change is lurking in the extended forecast period sometime around the new year, but global numerical models are having a tough time predicting the details. As always, stay tuned for developments!
Nice today and tomorrow before unsettled weather for Thursday
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
A storm in the Gulf of Alaska is currently affecting the northwest. Energy will split as it moves west, with a piece of energy traveling south along the coast and another piece skirting to our north. We will be spared the coldest part of the approaching storm as most of the cold air slides north and east of us.
Tomorrow should be another nice day before clouds build ahead of the approaching storm later in the day. The wave to our southwest is forecast to eject some energy over our area late Wednesday night or early Thursday leading to some accumulating snows by Thursday afternoon in the 2-4” range.
Precipitation should let up later Thursday before a cold front approaches from the north late in the day. It does not appear there will be good overrunning around the front as the flow aloft is very weak in the vicinity of this split system. Generally unsettled weather with light snow of around 1-3” is expected.
Another wave approaches from the northwest early Saturday, and this one appears to have a slight split to it as well. Slightly heavier snowfall is expected with this cool push of air, though amounts are still expected to be light and in the range of 2-4” each day of the weekend. Temperatures should continue to cool through Sunday morning continuing the light snowfall.
Skies don’t look to clear until late Monday as we remain in cool and moist northwest flow. A nice Tuesday before another approaching storm influences our area mid-week.
Light snow tonight and then nice weather before snow near the end of next week
Saturday, December 14, 2013
A weak wave passes over us in northwest flow tonight, but there is minimal cool air associated with it so I would expect even lighter amounts tomorrow than the 2-4” that fell by this morning’s report. Skies should clear during the day ushering in a very pleasant week of warm and dry weather.
By midweek, a large storm enters the west coast of the US. Models are now trending towards splitting this storm as it moves over the Great Basin, sparing us from the coldest air of Big Blue. We will, however, experience a significant cold front currently timed for late Thursday as the northern portion of the wave passes through the area. Unfortunately, the southern portion of the wave is currently forecast too far south to affect our weather, and the event will be relatively short-lived as it ends by mid-day Friday.
The ridge in the Gulf of Alaska forcing the northwest flow over our area is forecast to build behind this passing storm before a Pacific wave is forecast to travel through it early in the following work week. This may bring colder temperatures and some snow, but the forecast is too far out for much confidence in that model solution.
