Tempest Weather Station
Click here to order the same weather station used at SnowAlarm and SAVE 10% with coupon code SNOWALARM.*Does not record snowfall, only rain :-(

Quiet weather week ahead

Monday, October 9, 2017

The unseasonably cold storm discussed in Thursday’s forecast moved in about 12 hours faster than originally forecast, arriving in the Steamboat Springs area around sunset Sunday and leaving by noon today. Temperatures fell to 14F at the top of Mt. Werner last night and mountain-top winds were mostly from the east, limiting precipitation as the easterly winds moved down the slopes of the Park Range and dried the airmass.

Drier air has moved in behind the storm, and after the coldest morning of the season Tuesday, temperatures will warm through midweek yielding some more spectacular fall weather.

Several waves of energy and cool air will rotate through the Gulf of Alaska and move along the northern U.S. border from Thursday through the weekend. While most of the weather will stay to our north, temperatures may be knocked back a bit and winds will become breezy as the cool air grazes our area each day.

Some uncertainty in the forecast appears for the weekend, as some of the Gulf of Alaska energy takes a more southern track through the Great Basin. Models are still struggling with how much energy splits southward early in the weekend and whether the bulk of the energy moves across our area in one piece or two over the weekend. Whether we see a cooler Saturday afternoon with some showers or a warmer Saturday with showers holding off until later Saturday or Sunday is yet to be determined.

Dry cool front and more snow bookend nice Columbus Day weekend

Thursday, October 5, 2017

A dry cool front for Friday will precede a nice weekend ahead of another snow event on Columbus Day in Steamboat Springs. The rest of today will feature a brilliant fall day with warm temperatures and sunny skies.

They dry storm currently located in Nevada and discussed in Monday’s forecast will move across northern Colorado on Friday. Temperatures will fall from above average today to below average tomorrow, and there may be some afternoon showers as the atmosphere destabilizes.

After a cool start to Saturday, dry weather with mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures will grace our area through the weekend.

However, like the last storm, another storm that forms in the Gulf of Alaska during the weekend mixes with some cold air from western Canada and the polar region, and travels through the Great Basin on Monday. The southwest flow ahead of the storm will battle the cold air north of the storm, with dry, warm and possibly breezy conditions ahead of the cold front. Numerical weather models have struggled with the timing of this storm, but current forecasts bring the front through sometime on Monday. At this point it is uncertain during what part of the day the front arrives, so we may sneak in another nice day, or not.

The air will be quite cold, and it may be an all-snow event in the Yampa Valley that will extend through Monday night. Any precipitation that falls as rain should quickly change over to snow as temperatures plummet, and accumulations are again expected in the valley, with more significant accumulations at the higher elevations.

Clouds may linger on Tuesday as the storm moves east of our area, with another cool day expected. Cold morning temperatures behind the front will be experienced on Tuesday, and again Wednesday if skies clear Tuesday night.

As was the case this week, warmer and drier air washes over our area for most of the rest of the work week.

Lots of uncertainty emerges for next weekend as another storm forms in the Gulf of Alaska and splits as approaches the Pacific Northwest coast around the end of the work week. Numerical weather models disagree on the amount of splitting and whether the southern part of the split loiters offshore or moves inland, with one solution keeping us warm and dry and the other bringing at least unsettled weather into Great Basin and eventually our area for next weekend.

Fall storm wallops Steamboat

Monday, October 2, 2017

The strong winter-like storm that is still gripping the Steamboat Springs area has left 19” of snow containing about 2.4” of liquid water at the top of Sunshine Peak near Patrol Headquarters, as shown by the current Steamboat Powdercam, and about 6” on my deck near the base of Mt. Werner. In the Yampa Valley, the rain that started around 2:30 Saturday afternoon left about an inch of water by Sunday morning. By mid-morning Sunday, the rain had changed to snow, certainly much earlier than my Thursday forecast, and continued through Monday morning, leaving about another inch of liquid water in the valley.

The cold air associated with this storm, sourced from the North Pole, was not to be slowed by the southwest flow aloft, and snow levels dropped faster and further than originally forecast. Snow showers will taper off through the afternoon today, with another weak round of showers possible around midnight.

Some drier air should move over our area after midnight, and if skies clear, temperatures will fall to the lowest levels of the season so far. Below normal temperatures will persist into Wednesday as the sun’s energy goes into melting the snow rather than warming the atmosphere.

As this storm lifts to our northeast by midweek, another storm moving southward from British Columbia briefly stalls in Nevada through midweek. This will keep southwest flow over our area until the end of the work week and we will see warming temperatures under continued mostly sunny skies.

As energy traveling across the Pacific crosses the British Columbia coast around Friday and energizes the jet stream, the Nevada storm is ejected to the east and northeast, moving over or near our area sometime on Friday. This storm will be quite dry, likely with no precipitation, but it should knock temperatures back a bit for Friday.

Uncertainty emerges for the weekend as it is not clear how strong and how far south the Pacific jet stream will travel as it sags southward across the Intermountain West after crossing the West Coast. Earlier forecasts had significant warming and drying over Colorado for the weekend, but current numerical model forecasts now have the jet stream pushing further south, and this will likely limit the previously advertised warming and drying as cooler air and clouds lurk to our north.

Another round of cool and unsettled weather on tap

Thursday, September 28, 2017

This forecast sounds like a broken record, but several more storms will impact the Steamboat Springs area through at least early next week, with a possible break around midweek.

Currently, a compact storm in central Utah has brought a round of precipitation to the Yampa Valley earlier today as waves of energy and moisture from the south rotated through our area. Though moisture decreases, there will still be a chance of showers later today before ending in the evening.

Friday will be another unsettled day as the storm in central Utah lifts to the northeast and clips northwestern Colorado, with showers starting as soon as noon.

We will have a brief break in the weather Friday night and Saturday behind the departing storm and in advance of another stronger and much colder storm from the Pacific Northwest that is forecast to arrive later Saturday or early Sunday.

This storm has mixed with some cold air from the North Pole and will bring a series of cold fronts through the region. Showers will become numerous and increase in strength later Saturday and last through the night as the first cold front approaches. Much cooler temperatures and continued showery weather is expected for Sunday as snow levels fall to around 8000 - 9000 feet.

As is often the case with these large storms, reinforcing waves of cold air will follow behind the initial front. Numerical weather models had this cold air washing directly over northern Colorado in my Monday forecast, but now the cold air is forecast to elongate the storm to the southwest, keeping the coldest air to our north and west as southwest flow develops over Colorado. Cool and showery weather is expected for Monday, with snowflakes still possible down to the valley floor, though models have trended this weather further north in recent runs, reducing the confidence in that forecast.

There will be a battle between the cool air to our northwest and warmer air to our southwest, and numerical weather models now have the cold front retreating northward by Tuesday as the warmer air briefly wins the battle. This retreat will create the break in the cool and showery weather for Tuesday and Wednesday before remnants of the storm move eastward over our area later in the work week. Details will have to wait until there is better model agreement as to exactly how that might happen.

Cool and unsettled start to Fall continues

Monday, September 25, 2017

As one center of circulation currently located in Wyoming moves to the northeast, another wave of energy moving southward from British Columbia forms another circulation center in southern Nevada by Wednesday that is cutoff from the jet stream. The cool and unstable northwest flow behind the departing Wyoming storm will continue the chance of afternoon showers today before cool and mostly sunny fall weather graces the Steamboat Springs area for Tuesday.

By later Wednesday, we will begin feeling the effects form the cutoff low which is forecast to move northeastward through the Great Basin as temperatures warm towards normal. Moisture from the south will be pulled northward by the southerly winds on the eastern periphery of the circulation, and the moisture may make it far enough north to produce a chance of light showers in our area by late in the day Wednesday.

Interestingly, on Wednesday, the old Wyoming low is absorbed by fast westerly flow along the Canadian border, and along with continued energy moving southward from Hudson Bay, will help deflect hurricane Maria to the northeast as the jet stream moves eastward across the Great Lakes, sparing the central East Coast form a direct hit.

By Thursday, the Great Basin low is forecast to in central Utah, and waves of energy rotating around the low will combine with increasing moisture from the south to produce increasing chances of showers, with high snow levels, for Thursday and Friday.

Recent model solutions have done away with the ridge of high pressure that was originally forecast for the weekend in favor of some sort of cool trough of low pressure from the Pacific, reinforced with some cold air from the North Pole. And if your thinking that sounds cold, then you are right. Current forecasts, which will almost certainly modify this week due to the recent large forecast model changes, indicate that while we have a chance of showers later Saturday ahead of the front in near normal temperatures, much colder air will arrive sometime on Sunday with showers and lowering snow levels.

While we may not see our first snow in the Yampa Valley then, a reinforcing wave from the northern latitudes crosses the Pacific Northwest coast later Sunday. There is disagreement among the models, with the ECMWF holding the coldest air to our west and north and the American GFS bringing a more consolidated push. The colder solution would bring another round of showers around Monday afternoon, with some snowflakes possible in the city.

Tempest Weather Station
Click here to order the same weather station used at SnowAlarm and SAVE 10% with coupon code SNOWALARM.*Does not record snowfall, only rain :-(

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23 February 2021

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