Thursday, August 25, 2016
Even though rains have stayed mostly to the south as discussed in the last forecast, we will have another chance of showers this evening as a a wave moves though central Colorado and another chance Friday afternoon and evening as the southern end of a trough traveling across Montana swings through the Steamboat Springs area.
Drier air works into our area by Saturday afternoon, though there will still be a chance of afternoon storms as stronger surface heating cooks the remaining moisture.
A series of Pacific Northwest storms will keep mostly dry and light southwest flow over our area for Sunday and extending into midweek before a larger storm takes up residence off the coast of Washington and Oregon by the end of the week. Though we are right on the boundary, deeper moisture from the southwest may be able to travel over our area by midweek and possibly into the Labor Day weekend, increasing the chance of wetting rains.
Longer range models do indicate the trough will eventually make landfall around or soon after Labor Day and that may allow for our best chance of precipitation as it approaches and eventually moves though Colorado.
Monday, August 22, 2016
A storm currently skirting northern Montana has dragged some energy in the Great Basin, leftover from the previous storm at the end of last week, over Colorado this afternoon. The best moisture is south of the Steamboat Springs area, and while we may see some showers, most of the rain will stay south.
Another piece of energy from the Great Basin will again be forced over Colorado on Tuesday, and again it looks like the best moisture and forcing will remain south of our area. There will still be a threat of showers tomorrow afternoon and evening depending on the eventual track of the diffuse Great Basin energy.
A dry cool front from from the Montana storm looks to cross the area early on Wednesday bringing cooler but still seasonable temperatures with some drier air working into the area.
Similar to last week’s storm, some energy from the Montana storm is also left behind in the Great Basin. This is forecast to move over our area on Thursday and Friday as another storm drops southward from western Canada, eventually moving over our area around late Friday night or early Saturday morning. We will have a chance of storms on both Thursday and Friday as upper level energy moves overhead, with some storms possibly becoming strong later Friday and into the overnight hours as the main front approaches and eventually crosses the area.
While some showers may remain for Saturday under continued cool temperatures, dry air looks to overspread the area around mid-weekend, bringing sunny conditions and warmer temperatures that look to last into the beginning of the next work week.
Friday, August 19, 2016
The well-advertised cool front is currently moving through the Steamboat Springs area with most of the precipitation occurring south of our area. There may still be a chance of a shower this evening, but drying behind the front will limit any rainfall.
Even drier air works into the region by Saturday afternoon, and combined with a final push of cool air by a trailing wave Saturday night, Sunday morning will start quite chilly. However a rapidly building western ridge will allow temperatures on Sunday to reach above normal.
Another Pacific Northwest storm approaches the coast on Sunday and drags some weak energy loitering off the California coast eastward. Southwesterly flow ahead of the southern portion of the storm will allow moisture to work back into the area, possibly producing some Sunday afternoon clouds and a stray shower.
Moisture, though modest, will continue to increase through Wednesday as the parent storm moves along the U.S. - Canadian border and continues to drag the southern portion of the storm across the Great Basin and over our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should produce a decent chance of wetting rains those days, with some of the storms possibly lasting into the overnight hours.
Earlier this week, it looked like dry air would overspread the area for the end of the work week in westerly flow, but now models have another push of cool air traveling southward from the Canadian Plains as the old Pacific Northwest storm phases with a storm over Hudson Bay. Most of the energy is currently forecast to stay north and east of our area for mostly dry and seasonably cool temperatures.
Monday, August 15, 2016
A couple of week circulation centers currently located in Nevada and just off the northern California coast will keep the threat of afternoon showers for the Steamboat Springs area through midweek as they meander around the Great Basin. The chance for afternoon showers will increase for Tuesday and more so for Wednesday as the airmass gradually moistens. Due to the still dry lower atmosphere though, we may see more wind than rain.
Some cool air from the North Pole will break away from the Polar Vortex and travel southwards across western Canada, bringing an unseasonably cool airmass southward in several pieces. The first minor front is timed for Thursday afternoon or evening and may phase with some of the Great Basin energy and allow for a good chance of wetting rains through Thursday afternoon and evening.
The strongest push of cool air looks to occur around Friday afternoon or evening as a well-defined wave travels from the north-northwest over northern Colorado. As with the Thursday wave, more Great Basin energy will be pulled over our area contributing to more wetting rains with possibly strong storms Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday should be noticeably cooler with possible light showers in the cool and unstable northwest flow. A trailing wave will reinforce the cool air with the third and final front timed for Saturday evening, and again this may increase the chances for showers that may last into the overnight hours.
The flow backs to the west by early Sunday bringing in dry air and allowing temperatures to warm and the skies to clear. This trend looks to continue into the beginning of the next work week.
Friday, August 12, 2016
Cooler and very dry air has invaded the Steamboat Springs area after the cool front passed through last night leading to a beautiful weekend forecast with cool nights and seasonably warm days. A trailing wave in the current northwest flow may produce some clouds Saturday afternoon and perhaps even a stray high-mountain shower, but Sunday looks to be mostly cloud-free with warming temperatures as the western ridge rebuilds behind the departing front.
A trough of low pressure crossing the West Coast on Sunday will split, with pieces of the southern portion traveling across the Great Basin on Monday and Tuesday. Some upward motion and limited moisture will allow for the chance of afternoon showers over our area those days under warmer temperatures.
Another splitting Pacific storm approaches the coast around Wednesday with the southern portion forecast to take up residence off the central California coast for the rest of the work week. The southwesterly flow ahead of the lingering trough will once again allow deeper southern moisture to travel over the region, increasing the chance of wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday.
The northern portion of the split will be slowed as additional Pacific energy reinforces the cool air in the storm and looks to eventually bring another cool front through the area late in the work week or early the following weekend.