Spring weather to retreat ahead of wintry weather by Sunday
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Resort under sunny skies late this Thursday morning. The recent spring weather will slowly retreat through Saturday as temperatures stay warm and shower chances return ahead of wintry weather starting by Saturday night and lasting into and possibly through the following work week.
A strong wintry storm currently extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska while the ridge of high pressure responsible for our gorgeous spring weather is over most of the West. A quick-moving wave of energy and moisture ejected from the storm earlier has mixed with some cold air from western Canada and is forecast to graze northern Colorado tonight.
While Montana will see the brunt of the snowfall, we will see winds picking up ahead of the grazing disturbance this afternoon. The cool front will be too late in the day to affect the near fifty-degree high temperatures in town today, just above our average of 47 F, but will bring the possibility of rain showers in town and snow showers on the hill tonight, with minimal accumulations expected.
We should see one more day of the sun on Friday as a ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds over our area ahead of the advancing Gulf of Alaska storm, with temperatures a few degrees below today. But clouds will invade our area later in the day thanks to increasing moisture with even a shower possible from Friday night into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska storm will have crossed the West Coast and will begin incorporating some cold air from western Canada that will continue into the following work week. Clouds may decrease for a short time Saturday around noon before increasing in earnest later in the day as the leading edge of the storm approaches and showers become possible, with temperatures staying similar to Friday.
Showers should turn moderate to sometimes heavy by Saturday night on the hill with rain showers turning to a rain-snow mix in town. A strong cold front early on Sunday should turn precipitation to snow in town and keep the snow showers going through the day. High temperatures will crash into the thirties in town and near twenty degrees at the top of the hill. While the town will see only minor accumulations, I would expect 2-5” of snow at mid-mountain by the Sunday morning ski report and an additional 2-5” during the day.
Showers should decrease on Sunday night and Monday, though they may not stop as additional cold air dropping into the backside of the storm keeps moisture and instability overhead. The wintry weather looks to continue through the work week as additional periods for accumulating snowfall are advertised for Wednesday and Thursday.
Enjoy the sunny and warm weather we have left, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the wintry weather for the last week of March.
Subsiding winds and warming temperatures to start the work week
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Temperatures are nearly forty degrees in Steamboat Springs and twenty degrees at the top of the Steamboat Resort under mostly sunny skies late this Sunday morning. Today will be the last day of breezy winds from the east ahead of sunny skies and warming temperatures through midweek, highlighted by the vernal equinox occurring on Tuesday, March 19 at 9:06 PM. The weather may turn unsettled by the end of the work week ahead of a pattern change that may bring storms back to our area by the end of next weekend.
A long-lived eddy of low pressure currently over Phoenix is trapped underneath a ridge of high pressure centered over the northern Rockies. A wave of energy that earlier traveled over the ridge of high pressure is currently bringing cold weather to the Midwest and is close enough to our area to reinforce the easterly winds being drawn into the eddy to our southwest.
So we can expect one more day of breezy winds from the east, and perhaps some clouds tonight as the Midwest wave grazes our area before beautiful sunny skies and warming temperatures grace our area starting Monday. A high temperature around our average of 46 F is forecast in town on Monday with fifty degrees possible on Tuesday.
Also, Tuesday will mark the beginning of astronomical spring as the sun is directly over the equator at 9:06 pm. While this date is usually closer to March 21, the extra day in February thanks to a leap year has pulled the vernal equinox forward a day earlier. The increase in daylight will be maximized at two minutes and forty-one seconds per day after which daylight will increase more slowly until the summer solstice on Thursday, June 20 at 2:50 PM.
By Wednesday, that eddy of low pressure will have weakened and is forecast to be carried through New Mexico by a wave of energy in the subtropical jet stream. Additionally, another wave moving down the east side of the ridge of high pressure to our north will graze our area, and we may see several degrees of cooling and some clouds as both features skirt our area. If the eddy moves further north than currently forecast, we will see more clouds and perhaps even some showers.
Temperatures will stay around our rising average of 47 F on Thursday as clouds begin to invade our area ahead of an active weather pattern advertised to start in earnest by the end of the weekend. So enjoy the quintessential spring weather to start this work week and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our next accumulating snowfall.
Winds to slowly decrease overnight but breezes to last through the weekend
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and mid-teens at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon. Not that you could ride a lift to the top today, or even to mid-mountain, as most lifts were stopped and the rest slowed thanks to the very strong and gusty winds from the east. These winds will slowly decrease overnight and Friday before picking up a bit on a warmer afternoon and staying breezy for the rest of a seasonable weekend.
A strong eddy of low pressure currently located near Las Vegas is trapped underneath a ridge of high pressure centered over Vancouver. Air drawn toward the low pressure of the eddy is responsible for our easterly wind today that gusted as high as 62 mph at 7:05 am and the impressive snowfall amounts in the foothills of the Front Range in a so-called upslope event. The winners so far are Aspen Springs by Central City with 45.5” of snow as of noon and 35” of snow by Genesee, and they are not done yet!
The strong and gusty winds over our area are due to a mountain wave forming over the Divide thanks to the easterly winds being forced over the mountain barrier. Additionally, the upward propagating energy of the wave is being reflected from a critical layer aloft, where the wind speed switches from easterly to westerly. The reflected energy contributes to wave-breaking, which can be visualized as ocean waves crashing on a beach.
Winds should slowly decrease overnight and might even become calm by sunset on Friday as the eddy moves southwest toward northern Baja. High temperatures should reach right around our average of 44 F as skies clear through the morning.
But the eddy is not done with us yet as a wave of energy currently traveling over the Vancouver ridge heads toward the Northern Plains by Saturday and encourages the eddy to wobble to the northeast. Winds from the east look to pick up again Friday night as the eddy draws closer, though much less intense than today, with average wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts twice that possible through the weekend.
Some dry air sandwiched between the eddy and the Vancouver wave will start Saturday mostly sunny with high temperatures around average before clouds increase later in the day thanks to moisture on the northeast side of the wobbling eddy. There may even be some light showers overnight as this moisture reaches its northern extent before mostly sunny skies and continued average temperatures return on Sunday as the eddy slowly retreats to the southwest.
Forecasting the movement of an eddy underneath a ridge of high pressure is notoriously difficult due to the absence of any well-defined steering flow, and small wobbles in the position of the eddy will affect the amount of clouds and sun we see during the weekend, and beyond.
Right now, a nice start to the work week is forecast with warming temperatures reaching near fifty degrees by Tuesday. That eddy eventually does look to restart its eastward journey by midweek thanks to incoming Pacific energy, with that Pacific energy eventually bringing the chance for precipitation back to our area around the end of the work week.
So enjoy what should be a pleasant weekend, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next chance for precipitation.
Snow to return by midweek
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Temperatures are in the upper twenties in Steamboat Springs and mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under clear skies late this Sunday morning. A quick-moving and weakening storm will bring increasing clouds and breezes later Monday with a chance for some light showers. A colder and stronger storm will bring good chances for significant snowfall later Tuesday through Wednesday with unsettled weather forecast for the rest of the work week.
A broad ridge of high pressure is currently over the west central U.S. and Canadian Plains while troughs of low pressure are over the Gulf of Alaska and the Great Lakes. We should see another beautiful day today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in town right around our average of 43 F.
Meanwhile, a splitting wave rotating out of the Gulf of Alaska trough is forecast to cross the West Coast tonight and the Great Basin during the day Monday before moving over Colorado Monday night. Winds from the southwest will allow temperatures to rise a few degrees into the mid-forties and create breezy conditions by Monday afternoon with mountain-top winds gusting to as high as 40 mph. There may be some light snow showers on the hill overnight Monday with only light accumulations possible.
There will likely be some clearing and even some sun possible Tuesday morning before another upstream wave currently over the Aleutian Islands mixes with some cold air from Alaska later today and crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Monday. Similar to Monday, expect increasing breezes and clouds Tuesday after noon as the storm approaches with showers breaking out later in the day.
There may be a rain-snow mix in town if the showers get going in the late afternoon or early evening, though the cold front associated with the storm will bring all snow overnight and Wednesday. We could see 2-5” of snow for the Wednesday morning mid-mountain ski report with another 2-5” falling during the day. High temperatures in town will fall into the mid-thirties on Wednesday with several inches of snow expected between Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
But there is some uncertainty with snowfall amounts on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the storm is forecast to split over the Great Basin by Wednesday night, with the southern end forming an eddy that drifts southward over the Desert Southwest by Thursday. We could see another 1-4” Wednesday night on the hill with unsettled weather continuing behind the storm on a similarly cool Thursday and slightly warmer Friday.
There looks to be a break in the unsettled weather later Friday into Saturday, though a grazing storm may bring the unsettled weather back to our area around mid-weekend. Be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the coming weekend weather.
Pleasant weekend ahead
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties under partly sunny skies in the town of Steamboat Springs and near freezing at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort this Thursday at noon. Showers are likely during the afternoons and evenings of today and Friday, though any accumulations are expected to be minor. A pleasant weekend with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures looks to be followed by a weak storm early in the work week and a stronger storm around midweek.
Most of the western half of the country is located under a broad and weak trough of low pressure. Several diffuse impulses of energy and moisture are forecast to move through this trough today and Friday leading to afternoon and evening showers for both days. Accumulations look to be minor, in the 1-4” range each period, as heavier showers could leave a quick inch or two if they pass overhead. Locally, the best accumulations look to be to our north toward the Wyoming border and over the Elkhead Mountains, while regionally, the southern and central mountains of Colorado look to receive significant accumulations.
A ridge of high pressure ahead of a complex storm brewing over the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move over the Rockies this weekend thanks to the eastward movement of the storm. There is some weather forecast model disagreement on the proximity of the driest air under the ridge this weekend, with mostly sunny skies expected if the dry air is close and some clouds if the dry air is further away.
High temperatures in town are forecast to cool into the low thirties on Friday, around ten degrees below our rapidly rising average of 42 F, thanks to cooler air associated with the trough, clouds and possible showers. But we should warm to around five degrees below average on Saturday and near average on Sunday as the warm air under the ridge of high pressure settles overhead.
Enjoy the nice weekend since unsettled weather returns for the work week thanks to the approaching Aleutian storm. This storm is forecast to evolve in a complex fashion as several waves of cold air from eastern Siberia interact with the storm over the weekend. Right now, a leading piece of the storm looks to bring light showers to our area later Monday with the bulk of the storm timed for Wednesday and Thursday. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next likely significant winter storm next week.
