Increasing winds ahead of midweek snow
Sunday, November 5, 2023
After reaching a high of 61 F this Sunday mid afternoon under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures have fallen into the mid fifties on this uncomfortably dark late afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Winds will pick up on Monday and especially Tuesday ahead of a cold front later in the day that will bring a bit of snow to town and modest amounts to the higher elevations through Wednesday evening. Much colder temperatures are forecast to stick around for the rest of the work week even as we see clearing skies by Thursday.
A broad trough of low pressure currently extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to reluctantly move eastward ahead of a storm forecast to develop near the Aleutian Islands early in the work week. Breezes from the west have already increased ahead of the Gulf of Alaska storm, with winds forecast to strengthen on Monday and more so on Tuesday as the storm approaches our area.
The clouds are here to stay though midweek as a stream of Pacific moisture ahead of the storm is directed overhead. After a similar day Monday to today, high temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid fifties on Tuesday, which is still above our average of 48 F, along with wind gusts from the west and southwest as high as 40 mph in town and 50 mph at mountain top.
The storm is forecast to elongate to the southwest as it moves toward the Great Basin early in the work week, with the northern part of the modestly splitting storm forecast to bring a cold front through our area by late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Snowfall should get going Tuesday night, with the snow continuing into Wednesday morning before tapering off during the afternoon and ending in the evening. We could see an inch of accumulation in town by Wednesday evening with 3-6” at the higher elevations. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low forties, with similar temperatures on Thursday despite the return of mostly sunny skies.
There should be some warming for Friday and the weekend, though a disturbance may graze our area later Friday. Be sure to check back for more details on the coming weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Clearing skies and warming temperatures for the weekend
Thursday, November 2, 2023
Temperatures are right around our average of fifty degrees under cloudy skies this Thursday mid afternoon in Steamboat Springs. A weather disturbance passing to our north on Friday will bring another day of clouds and perhaps a high elevation flurry before clouds diminish and temperatures warm for the weekend.
A broad and weak area of low pressure is currently located in the Gulf of Alaska while a shallow ridge of high pressure is located over the southern West Coast. A stream of Pacific moisture, referred to as an atmospheric river, is currently impinging on the Pacific Northwest ahead of a weather disturbance ejecting out of the Gulf of Alaska low pressure area and is forecast to cross the coast tonight.
The leading edge of moisture has moved through the weakening ridge of high pressure to our west and is responsible for the cloudy skies today. The clouds will stick around on Friday as that weather disturbance moves through Wyoming and Montana and grazes our area Friday night, with a flurry possibly at the higher elevations to our north and another day of around average temperatures.
Mostly sunny skies should reappear on Saturday as what is left of the ridge of high pressure moves overhead behind the passing disturbance, making for a very pleasant day with high temperatures in the mid fifties. And even though temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Sunday, moisture ahead of another Pacific disturbance ejecting out of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure area may bring the clouds back as the day progresses.
Temperatures will be on a gentle downswing for the start of the work week as additional Pacific disturbances ejecting out of the Gulf of Alaska low pressure are carried near our area in winds from the west. The last in this series is forecast for around midweek with below average temperatures and a chance for modest amounts of snow, though the strength and timing are still changing in the weather forecast models.
So enjoy the pleasant weekend, and be sure to check back for more details about a possible midweek storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Plenty of sun and warming temperatures through the work week
Sunday, October 29, 2023
Temperatures are only in the upper twenties in the town of Steamboat Springs and ten degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies this Sunday mid afternoon. After near record low temperatures Monday morning, the sun returns for most of the work week and temperatures grudgingly rise from the mid thirties today and Monday toward the mid fifties by Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure is currently just off the West Coast while a deep and cold trough of low pressure extends from Hudson Bay through our area and all the way to Baja. Winds between these high and low pressure systems are from the north and northwest and are continuing to carry very cold air originally sourced from the arctic overhead.
But the accumulating precipitation associated with the wintry storm has ended even as clouds and some flurries linger in the cold and unstable flow from the northwest after leaving around three inches in town and eleven inches at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. The arctic air mass left behind means high temperatures today will struggle to reach freezing even with peeks of sun.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to weaken and move slowly east through the work week thanks to an active Pacific jet stream. The likely clearing skies by tonight will conspire with the fresh snow cover to produce low temperatures in the low single digits on Monday morning, approaching our low temperature record of zero degrees for the date, with the favored low lying reaching the subzero realm.
The cold start to Monday means another cold day with high temperatures in the thirties despite the abundant sunshine. But the warmer air mass associated with the approaching ridge of high pressure will allow both low and high temperatures to slowly rise through the work week with forecast low temperatures rising to the upper single digits on Tuesday morning, mid teens on Wednesday morning and approaching our average of 21 F on Thursday morning.
Likewise, the high temperatures will also rise toward our average of 50 F by Wednesday, with the high temperature in the mid forties for Halloween requiring an extra layer under the costumes of the trick-or-treaters.
The high temperatures for Thursday will even be around five degrees above average before a series of weakening Pacific storms approach our area beginning around the end of the work week. While we will see increasing clouds as soon as later Thursday, whether we see any precipitation is still being sorted out in the weather forecast models. So enjoy the sunny weather to start the work week and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for details on the coming weekend weather.
Wintry weather to last through the weekend
Thursday, October 26, 2023
After temperatures reached the upper fifties by noon with periods of sun on this Thursday in Steamboat Springs, they have plummeted and the snow has started by mid afternoon. This first wave of snow will mostly end by this evening with a break on Friday before a stronger second wave brings additional snow and cold on Saturday that should last into Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure currently extends from Alaska southward along the West Coast while a deep and cold trough of low pressure extends from Hudson Bay southwestward toward the Desert Southwest. The first of two waves of snow is currently moving through our area, and the very noticeable cold front was marked by sharply falling temperatures after the high temperature of the day of 58 F was reached at the Bob Adams airport at 1:35 pm.
Snow is already accumulating on the non paved surfaces as of 4:30 pm, and we should see around an inch in town and several inches on the mountain as the snow ends around mid evening along with the departing wave.
Friday should actually be a relatively pleasant but cool day with periods of sun and high temperatures reaching around fifty degrees, which is a bit below our average of 54 F. And I mean relative to the gorgeous weather of the past work week with the high temperature reaching 75 F on Sunday and 69 F on Monday.
Don’t be fooled by the nice Friday since a stronger and colder second wave is forecast to move across Idaho early on Saturday and eventually across our area later Sunday. Energy rounding the base of the wave is forecast to carry Pacific moisture over our area and will restart snowfall by Friday night.
As the wave moves into the Great Basin Saturday and Saturday night, persistent snowfall becomes established over or near our area along a stationary front that separates the cold air to our north from the warmer air to our south.
Snowfall looks to continue into Saturday night before tapering off on Sunday, with several inches possible in town and 8-16” possible at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Travel over Rabbit Ears Pass will likely be difficult during the height of the storm between Friday and Saturday nights.
While the forecast today indicates the snowfall will taper off on Sunday, it could end earlier or later in the day as weather forecast models often struggle with the progression of stationary fronts. Regardless, unseasonably cold air will follow the second wave carrying an associated arctic air mass overhead, with high temperatures reaching only near forty degrees on Saturday and near freezing on Sunday.
But the low temperatures will eventually be mid winter-like, with Sunday morning in the teens and, if the skies clear as forecast later Sunday night, Monday morning near zero degrees. This is over twenty degrees below our average of 22 F, and even below the 5 F average low temperature in January!
The ridge of high pressure off the West Coast is forecast to slowly move overhead through the next work week, so the early Halloween weather forecast is cold and dry as temperatures only slowly modify. But be sure to check back as I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Weather to become cooler and unsettled this week
Sunday, October 22, 2023
Temperatures are in the mid sixties with light breezes under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. High temperatures will remain in the sixties through midweek before a couple of strong storms from the Pacific Northwest bring much colder air and unsettled weather to our area as soon as Thursday.
A weak wave currently traveling over our area has brought a few clouds and breezes and about five degrees of cooling compared to our high temperature of 73 F yesterday at the Bob Adams airport, which was over fifteen degrees about the average of 56 F. The southern end of a splitting wave currently over northern California is forecast become an eddy by Monday as it travels first south through southern California and then east across the Mexican border through midweek, which is further south than originally forecast in my last weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
While we will not see any weather from this eddy, with high temperatures on Monday similar to today, the northern part of the wave will brush our area Monday night and knock temperatures to the low sixties on Tuesday with some modestly increased breezes and a few clouds.
Concurrently, a strong and cold storm is forecast to develop and move southward along the British Columbia today and Monday before impacting Washington and Oregon by later Tuesday. Weather forecast models have struggled mightily with this wave, and the one behind it, for the last week, but are now closer to agreeing that this first wave will swing across the Great Basin on Wednesday and approach our area as soon as Thursday.
The wave currently is forecast to weaken as it grazes our area on Thursday or Friday, but might be close enough and strong enough to bring some snow to the higher elevations and rain changing to snow in town. And weather forecast models agree on more cold air and moisture behind it, though they disagree on how much of that we see during the weekend and possibly into the following work week.
So enjoy the last of the nice days in October during the first half of the work week, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the coming storms.
