Showers chances return for Sunday

Thursday, September 7, 2023

Temperatures are in the mid-seventies with nary a cloud in the sky early this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. After another couple of days of similarly gorgeous weather, shower chances return on Sunday as a weak cool front grazes our area.

Movie of fog first encroaching then lifting over Steamboat Springs on 5 September 2023This past weekend saw our first storm from the northwest this season along with a cold front that blasted through our area Monday morning around 10 am followed by a day of showers starting at noon. I’ve included a time lapse of the view from Thunderhead between 6:20 am and 11:40 am Tuesday morning that shows the low clouds and fog encroaching on the town of Steamboat Springs as cool air rushed down the Elk River drainage before receding and lifting and eventually turning into some shallow fair weather cumulus clouds as the sun heated the valley floor.

Currently, a fairly flat ridge of high pressure is centered over the Rockies while a weak storm is located off the Pacific Northwest coast and a strong storm is located over Alaska. The Pacific northwest storm is forecast to move across Montana on Friday and mix with some cool air from the northern latitudes on Saturday. Additionally, some Pacific energy and moisture is forecast to pass south of the Alaska storm today and eventually move over our area on Sunday while mixing with some of that cool air to our northeast.

Before any of that cool air makes it to our area as early as noon on Sunday, look for another couple of gorgeous days of weather Friday and Saturday similar to today, but a bit warmer with high temperatures around eighty degrees, about five degrees above our average of 76 F.

But shower chances will appear on Sunday as the weak cool from grazes our area, perhaps as early as noon and lasting into the evening. However, these showers and the cool front will be nothing like what occurred last Monday, with showers being far lighter and more scattered and high temperatures falling to the low seventies.

These cooler temperatures look to stick around into the next work week along with a mix of sun and clouds as weak waves of Pacific energy and moisture continue to move overhead from the northwest. Weather forecast models disagree on what follows for the rest of the work week with the European ECMWF reintroducing some showery weather around midweek while the American GFS keeps us dry.

So enjoy the spectacular start to the weekend, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see what weather we may see next week.

Showery weather to continue ahead and along the Labor Day cold front

Sunday, September 3, 2023

The sun is back out again over Steamboat Springs early this Sunday afternoon after a noontime shower briefly dropped temperatures about five degrees into the mid-sixties. We should see more afternoon showers today and again on Labor Day as the first cold front of the season moves though within several hours of noon tomorrow. Drier air overspreads our area behind the front leading to beautiful early fall-like weather with warm mostly sunny days and cool nights for the rest of the work week.

A storm currently over northern California is on the move and is forecast to cross the Great Basin tonight and early tomorrow, bringing a cold front through our area that is currently timed for early afternoon on Labor Day. Ahead of the storm, monsoonal moisture brought northward by clockwise rotation around the ridge of high pressure over the eastern two thirds of the country has allowed for showers since Friday, with one particularly noteworthy shower early Friday evening bringing brief high winds to downtown Steamboat Springs along with a torrential downpour that dropped almost a third of an inch of rain in under ten minutes!

Short range weather forecast models forecast another couple of rounds of afternoon showers today, though for what its worth they are currently predicting clearing in time for the closing show of the free summer concert series down at Howelsen Hill this evening. Regardless, I’d suggest bringing your Gore-Tex!

We may see some showers redevelop after midnight as the cold front approaches, with the heaviest showers forecast along the cold front which is currently timed for soon after noon on Monday. Showers may linger in the cool and unstable northwest flow behind the front, with high temperatures around seventy degrees, almost ten degrees below our average of 78 F.

A reinforcing wave of cool air is forecast for overnight Monday, keeping the similarly cool high temperatures around on a mostly sunny Tuesday and allowing low temperatures to possibly fall into the upper thirties for the first time this season, which is right around our average of 39 F.

The sun will stick around for the rest of the work week as the storm moves across the Midwest and forces the ridge of high pressure to reform overhead as it deforms around the storm. Look for high temperatures to return to near eighty degrees by Wednesday under mostly sunny skies along with cool nights with low temperatures near forty degrees.

This quintessential early fall-like weather looks to stick around into the next weekend, though moisture may make a return late in the weekend or early the next work week as Pacific energy crosses the West Coast. Be sure to check back as I’ll have more to say about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

First cold front of the season to arrive Labor Day

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Temperatures are nearly eighty five degrees along with breezy winds from the southwest under sunny skies this Thursday mid afternoon. The dry weather this past work week ends ahead of the long Labor Day weekend as modest afternoon shower chances return for Friday and Saturday. Better chances appear Sunday after noon and overnight ahead of our first cold front of the season on Labor Day. Showers may linger on Monday behind the front, or not, depending upon the timing of the front and whether there is some additional trailing energy.

A deepening trough of low pressure is along the West Coast while a storm eddy moves northeast through North Dakota along the top of a summertime ridge of high pressure encompassing most or the U.S., except for the eastern Gulf States. The West Coast trough is forecast to become an eddy and loiter over northern California through mid weekend before additional energy currently over the Aleutian Islands forces the eddy to rejoin the jet stream on Sunday. It then moves eastward across the Great Basin through Monday and is forecast to bring a cold front to our area later Labor Day.

The current breezy afternoon winds thanks to the North Dakota eddy will be gone by tomorrow, but southwest winds ahead of the deepening West Coast trough will draw monsoonal moisture from the south over our area starting on Friday. So look for sunny starts to the day with modest chances for passing afternoon showers on Friday and Saturday.

Precipitation chances increase on Sunday, with showers possible as soon as noon as the West Coast storm begins to move through Nevada. It appears our best chance of showers will be Sunday afternoon and overnight well ahead of the cold front, which should arrive later on Labor Day, but I will have more to say about that timing in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.

And for those unable to check my forecast on Sunday, we may see some dry air just ahead of the front to start Labor Day in breezy winds from the southwest, or not, though showery weather may appear behind the front in the cool and unstable flow from the west and northwest. The most notable feature of our first cold front of the season will be the cool temperatures on Monday struggling to reach seventy degrees, which will be five to ten degrees below our average of 78 F for that day, and very noticeable after a weekend of high temperatures with an eight handle.

Chance of storms today and Monday followed by warm, dry and breezy weather

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Temperatures are moving toward the upper seventies under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday afternoon in the Steamboat Springs area, though clouds are building to our north and south. A weak cool front tonight keeps storm chances around today and Monday before a storm moving across the northern Rockies through midweek brings warm and dry weather to our area starting Tuesday thanks to increasingly breezy winds from the southwest.

Steamboat Springs has been drying out after the remnants of tropical storm Harold dropped around three quarters of an inch of rain over the mountain area and an inch more than that downtown on Thursday and Friday. Friday was particularly drenching downtown as almost one and a half inches of rain fell in the second half of the day. most of which fell over a short period of time around 4 pm as a storm cell moved directly overhead. I’ve heard reports of hail, especially by the middle school, so feel free to share your storm reports from that afternoon by clicking here.

Mountain-top winds have shifted to be from the northwest as the persistent ridge of high pressure that has influenced our weather this summer builds to our west and a storm system approaches the Great Lakes. A weak cool front in that northwest flow will move through this evening, bringing chances for storms later today and overnight. Afternoon storm chances will linger on Monday as high temperatures fall from the low eighties today to the upper seventies tomorrow, which is a couple degrees below our average of 80 F.

Meanwhile, a storm system currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to be pushed inland on Tuesday by an upstream storm system currently over the Aleutians. As the storm moves across the northern Rockies through midweek, winds will shift to be from the southwest, bringing dry air overhead with high temperatures returning to the low eighties. These winds will increase as the storm system moves across the northern states, with the breeziest days forecast to be on Wednesday and Thursday.

Another storm system dropping along the Pacific Northwest coast late in the work week is forecast to push the western ridge of high pressure back eastward to the Central Plains, and that allows monsoonal flow from the south on the backside of the high pressure to once again move toward our area by as early as Thursday afternoon.

This push of moisture currently looks to be fairly weak, at least initially, though the amount of moisture will ultimately be determined by the development of this next Pacific Northwest storm system. So be sure to check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the weather we may see for the long Labor Day weekend.

Here comes Harold with unsettled weather to follow for the weekend

Thursday, August 24, 2023

Temperatures are approaching eighty degrees under mostly sunny skies in the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid afternoon. But clouds are building as the remnants of tropical storm Harold move northward from the Four Corners region, with good rainfall expected from later today through Friday night as the former tropical storm moves overhead. Saturday should be a quieter day, but still with good chances for storms, and though more drying is forecast for Sunday, we may still see good chances for showers as a weak cool front approaches our area.

A broad ridge of high pressure is still entrenched over the the Gulf States, though its northern extent has been recently limited by storm systems traveling along the Canadian border. But the key feature for our area to start the weekend is the remnants of the former tropical storm Harold, which developed from that easterly wave I discussed in the last weather narrative.

The remnants are currently just north of the Four Corners region and are forecast to move first north and then east across our area on Friday. While good showers will be possible from later this afternoon through Friday night, the best chance for the strongest thunderstorms will be in the afternoons and evenings of both days. High temperatures will fall to the low seventies on Friday, a bit more than five degrees below our average of 80 F thanks to the abundance of clouds and showers.

The remnants of Harold will be east of our area by Saturday, but the the rich moisture will be slow to leave so the chance for afternoon and evening storms will remain. A wave of energy currently in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to quickly move across the Canadian border early in the weekend and intensify over the Great Lakes by Monday, shifting our winds to be from the northwest and bringing a grazing cool front near our area by late Sunday. So while Sunday will be drier than Saturday, there may still be chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

There is some uncertainty about this cool front, and thunderstorms may linger on Monday before drier air makes it back into the area by later Tuesday. It’s been a while since we had a generally gray and showery day over our area, so enjoy the break in the hot weather tomorrow, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details about the weather for next week.

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29 May 2019

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