Precipitation to restart tonight and continue through Easter weekend
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Temperatures are around forty degrees in Steamboat Springs and low twenties near the top of the Steamboat Resort under cloudy skies late this Thursday morning. A large and complex storm system will begin affecting our area tonight and bring periods of snow on the hill and snow turning to a rain-snow mix or even all rain in town through Easter weekend and into the following week.
A storm currently located over the Pacific Northwest has already brought as much as a foot of snow to some resorts along the West Coast. The storm is seasonably warm and is forecast to elongate along the coast through the weekend as additional energy and cool air drops into the backside of the storm.
Winds will shift to be from the southwest by this afternoon producing a nearly stationary warm front that is forecast to be over our area from tonight through Friday night. Energy and moisture ejecting out of the parent storm will travel along the front and be accompanied by snow showers starting tonight and continuing into Saturday morning.
Even though temperatures are warm and winds are from an unfavorable southwest direction, storm energy traveling over the stalled warm front should bring bands of moderate to even heavy snow showers which may be persistent. I would expect 2-5” of snow by the Friday morning ski report at mid-mountain and another 2-5” of increasingly dense snow during the day as temperatures reach the upper twenties on the hill and near forty degrees in town, which is around ten degrees below our in-town average high temperature of 49 F.
Weather forecast models agree that the warm front will lift to our north by Saturday, reducing or even eliminating showers during the day. There is some uncertainty around the precipitation Friday night though, with amounts in the 1-4” range currently possible on the hill and a rain-snow mix likely in town.
There is also a fair bit of uncertainty in the weather forecast for Saturday night as some cool air from the north skirts our area and may push the warm front back southward over our area. Right now, I would guess 2-5” of snow is possible for the Sunday morning mid-mountain ski report if that occurs.
There is a bit more certainty for Sunday, though, as the West Coast storm begins to move eastward and interacts with another push of cool air from the north during the day. The coolest air will likely not make it to our area until later Sunday, so I would expect 1-4” during the day on the hill and a rain-snow mix or even all rain in town for a soggy Easter Sunday, and possibly more substantial snow Sunday night.
Our forecast for Monday will depend upon the evolution of the storm and how much cool air from the north will be over our area, so I will defer snowfall guesses for Sunday night and Monday until my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, there is weather forecast model agreement that the main part of the storm will clear our area by Tuesday, even as a piece of the storm is left behind over the Desert Southwest, bringing warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies that are currently forecast to last through the remainder of the work week.
Cool and unsettled weather to last through midweek
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and low twenties near the top of the Steamboat Resort late this Sunday morning under mostly cloudy skies. A large and complex storm system will bring cool temperatures and snow showers to our area through midweek before pleasant weather returns by Thursday.
A large trough of low pressure is currently sitting over the West while a ridge of high pressure over the Yukon directs cold air from Hudson Bay southward over the Midwest and toward our area. The leading edge of the storm brought one inch of snow to the Steamboat Resort which fell by the Sunday morning ski report and an additional two inches which quickly fell by the time the lifts were turning.
A mix of sun and clouds is currently overhead, but the storm is forecast to strengthen as it interacts with a cold front currently moving through Wyoming. The front is forecast to move through our area late this afternoon and cause the leading edge of the storm to form an eddy that is forecast to slowly move across eastern Colorado tonight.
This dynamic storm has been poorly handled by the weather prediction models so far leading to a fair bit of uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts for our area. We should see winds shift from the south to the northwest and north as the front moves through later today with the best snowfall between sunset and early morning. If the storm evolves as currently forecast, we could see an additional 5-10” of snow at mid-mountain and an inch or two in town, with snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour at times this evening at the higher elevations, which could make travel over Rabbit Ears difficult.
The trough of low pressure over the West is forecast to only slowly move eastward as additional cold air from Canada reinforces the back end of the storm. Expect cool and unsettled weather through Wednesday afternoon with snow showers of varying intensities leaving 1-4” of snow at mid-mountain by Tuesday morning and 2-5” by Wednesday morning. High temperatures in town will be relegated to the thirties, well below our average of 48 F and low temperatures near the top of the Steamboat Resort could visit the single digits.
Snow showers should taper off during the day Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West ahead of another storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. It is not yet clear how this storm will evolve, with unsettled weather possibly returning to our area for the weekend.
So enjoy what will be a wintry start to the week, considering we have a limited number of these events left in the season, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more clarity on our next approaching storm.
Spring weather to retreat ahead of wintry weather by Sunday
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Resort under sunny skies late this Thursday morning. The recent spring weather will slowly retreat through Saturday as temperatures stay warm and shower chances return ahead of wintry weather starting by Saturday night and lasting into and possibly through the following work week.
A strong wintry storm currently extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska while the ridge of high pressure responsible for our gorgeous spring weather is over most of the West. A quick-moving wave of energy and moisture ejected from the storm earlier has mixed with some cold air from western Canada and is forecast to graze northern Colorado tonight.
While Montana will see the brunt of the snowfall, we will see winds picking up ahead of the grazing disturbance this afternoon. The cool front will be too late in the day to affect the near fifty-degree high temperatures in town today, just above our average of 47 F, but will bring the possibility of rain showers in town and snow showers on the hill tonight, with minimal accumulations expected.
We should see one more day of the sun on Friday as a ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds over our area ahead of the advancing Gulf of Alaska storm, with temperatures a few degrees below today. But clouds will invade our area later in the day thanks to increasing moisture with even a shower possible from Friday night into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska storm will have crossed the West Coast and will begin incorporating some cold air from western Canada that will continue into the following work week. Clouds may decrease for a short time Saturday around noon before increasing in earnest later in the day as the leading edge of the storm approaches and showers become possible, with temperatures staying similar to Friday.
Showers should turn moderate to sometimes heavy by Saturday night on the hill with rain showers turning to a rain-snow mix in town. A strong cold front early on Sunday should turn precipitation to snow in town and keep the snow showers going through the day. High temperatures will crash into the thirties in town and near twenty degrees at the top of the hill. While the town will see only minor accumulations, I would expect 2-5” of snow at mid-mountain by the Sunday morning ski report and an additional 2-5” during the day.
Showers should decrease on Sunday night and Monday, though they may not stop as additional cold air dropping into the backside of the storm keeps moisture and instability overhead. The wintry weather looks to continue through the work week as additional periods for accumulating snowfall are advertised for Wednesday and Thursday.
Enjoy the sunny and warm weather we have left, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the wintry weather for the last week of March.
Subsiding winds and warming temperatures to start the work week
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Temperatures are nearly forty degrees in Steamboat Springs and twenty degrees at the top of the Steamboat Resort under mostly sunny skies late this Sunday morning. Today will be the last day of breezy winds from the east ahead of sunny skies and warming temperatures through midweek, highlighted by the vernal equinox occurring on Tuesday, March 19 at 9:06 PM. The weather may turn unsettled by the end of the work week ahead of a pattern change that may bring storms back to our area by the end of next weekend.
A long-lived eddy of low pressure currently over Phoenix is trapped underneath a ridge of high pressure centered over the northern Rockies. A wave of energy that earlier traveled over the ridge of high pressure is currently bringing cold weather to the Midwest and is close enough to our area to reinforce the easterly winds being drawn into the eddy to our southwest.
So we can expect one more day of breezy winds from the east, and perhaps some clouds tonight as the Midwest wave grazes our area before beautiful sunny skies and warming temperatures grace our area starting Monday. A high temperature around our average of 46 F is forecast in town on Monday with fifty degrees possible on Tuesday.
Also, Tuesday will mark the beginning of astronomical spring as the sun is directly over the equator at 9:06 pm. While this date is usually closer to March 21, the extra day in February thanks to a leap year has pulled the vernal equinox forward a day earlier. The increase in daylight will be maximized at two minutes and forty-one seconds per day after which daylight will increase more slowly until the summer solstice on Thursday, June 20 at 2:50 PM.
By Wednesday, that eddy of low pressure will have weakened and is forecast to be carried through New Mexico by a wave of energy in the subtropical jet stream. Additionally, another wave moving down the east side of the ridge of high pressure to our north will graze our area, and we may see several degrees of cooling and some clouds as both features skirt our area. If the eddy moves further north than currently forecast, we will see more clouds and perhaps even some showers.
Temperatures will stay around our rising average of 47 F on Thursday as clouds begin to invade our area ahead of an active weather pattern advertised to start in earnest by the end of the weekend. So enjoy the quintessential spring weather to start this work week and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our next accumulating snowfall.
Winds to slowly decrease overnight but breezes to last through the weekend
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and mid-teens at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon. Not that you could ride a lift to the top today, or even to mid-mountain, as most lifts were stopped and the rest slowed thanks to the very strong and gusty winds from the east. These winds will slowly decrease overnight and Friday before picking up a bit on a warmer afternoon and staying breezy for the rest of a seasonable weekend.
A strong eddy of low pressure currently located near Las Vegas is trapped underneath a ridge of high pressure centered over Vancouver. Air drawn toward the low pressure of the eddy is responsible for our easterly wind today that gusted as high as 62 mph at 7:05 am and the impressive snowfall amounts in the foothills of the Front Range in a so-called upslope event. The winners so far are Aspen Springs by Central City with 45.5” of snow as of noon and 35” of snow by Genesee, and they are not done yet!
The strong and gusty winds over our area are due to a mountain wave forming over the Divide thanks to the easterly winds being forced over the mountain barrier. Additionally, the upward propagating energy of the wave is being reflected from a critical layer aloft, where the wind speed switches from easterly to westerly. The reflected energy contributes to wave-breaking, which can be visualized as ocean waves crashing on a beach.
Winds should slowly decrease overnight and might even become calm by sunset on Friday as the eddy moves southwest toward northern Baja. High temperatures should reach right around our average of 44 F as skies clear through the morning.
But the eddy is not done with us yet as a wave of energy currently traveling over the Vancouver ridge heads toward the Northern Plains by Saturday and encourages the eddy to wobble to the northeast. Winds from the east look to pick up again Friday night as the eddy draws closer, though much less intense than today, with average wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts twice that possible through the weekend.
Some dry air sandwiched between the eddy and the Vancouver wave will start Saturday mostly sunny with high temperatures around average before clouds increase later in the day thanks to moisture on the northeast side of the wobbling eddy. There may even be some light showers overnight as this moisture reaches its northern extent before mostly sunny skies and continued average temperatures return on Sunday as the eddy slowly retreats to the southwest.
Forecasting the movement of an eddy underneath a ridge of high pressure is notoriously difficult due to the absence of any well-defined steering flow, and small wobbles in the position of the eddy will affect the amount of clouds and sun we see during the weekend, and beyond.
Right now, a nice start to the work week is forecast with warming temperatures reaching near fifty degrees by Tuesday. That eddy eventually does look to restart its eastward journey by midweek thanks to incoming Pacific energy, with that Pacific energy eventually bringing the chance for precipitation back to our area around the end of the work week.
So enjoy what should be a pleasant weekend, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next chance for precipitation.