Monday, March 6, 2017
The current cold and windy conditions will last through Tuesday as additional energy on the backside of the storm moves through the Steamboat Springs area overnight and tomorrow. 2” fell during the day today at mid-mountain with 4” up top, and with an additional inch or two overnight, I would expect a 3-6” mid-mountain report by Tuesday morning.
After another cold start to the day tomorrow, temperatures will warm to still-below-average in the afternoon, with snow showers being most numerous in the morning and tapering off later in the day. While winds will still be strong and gusty, they should shift from the west to the northwest and spare Mount Werner from the worst of the gusts as its mainly western aspect will be less exposed. I would expect and additional 1-4” during the day which will be reported Wednesday morning.
Breezy conditions will persist for Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures warm to above average before slackening by Friday.
There is a quick-moving storm that will pass by Friday night into Saturday morning followed by warming and drying for the first half of the weekend, but there is disagreement among the models as energy from the the polar jet stream traveling down the east side of the persistent Bering Sea ridge is partitioned. Some of this energy is forecast to move eastward over the U.S. and some is forecast to move southwestward under the Bering Sea ridge and possibly merge with upstream central Pacific energy from the subtropical jet stream. I have watched for a week as model solutions evolve, and I don’t have high confidence that any of them has the right answer yet.
That being said, after the possible Friday night event and the following warming and drying, there may be another storm late in the weekend that may be considerably moister as the wave originates from the possible merger of the polar and subtropical jet streams under the Bering Sea ridge.
Friday, March 3, 2017
A transient ridge over the Western U.S. has brought beautiful weather to the Intermountain West and the Steamboat Springs area. Cold air moving down the east side of the resurgent Bering Sea ridge has formed another cold storm in the Gulf of Alaska. Similar to previous storms, this is predicted to slide southward along the West Coast before moving across the Great Basin on Sunday, bringing winter weather back to the West late in the weekend through early in the work week.
Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow ahead of the storm as winds increase from the southwest and clouds begin to overspread the area. This trend continues on Sunday with winds increasing further, and energy ejecting from the storm will increase the chance of showers by later Sunday.
There is model disagreement with respect to the timing, but a strong cold front looks to move across the area late Sunday or Monday accompanied with a burst of accumulating snowfall. Snow showers look to continue behind the front in the cold and unstable northwest flow, though at this point the best moisture is forecast to quickly erode behind the front, limiting total snowfall. Anticipated snowfall amounts will almost surely change as we get closer to the event, but 4-8” is a reasonable guess by Monday afternoon.
A trailing wave late Monday or early Tuesday reinforces the cold air and restarts the snow showers that will be most numerous overnight and during the first half Tuesday.
Warming and drying will occur midweek for a day or two as another transient ridge moves over the West. However, there is considerable uncertainty after that as models are very inconsistent in handling additional energy moving down the east side of the Bering Sea ridge and how much of that energy interacts with Pacific energy undercutting the ridge.
The Bering Sea ridge was observed during the first half of our winter, and I am encouraged to see it reappear as we received good snowfall from that pattern. While the specifics are murky at best, I am hopeful we will see another active weather regime as spring approaches.
Monday, February 27, 2017
A deep trough of low pressure along the West Coast will move eastward across the Great Basin today, with several pieces of the storm bringing snows to the Steamboat Springs area starting this this afternoon or evening. The first part of the storm brings breezy southwest flow to our area today, with the best upward forcing staying north and south of us.
However, a cool front does pass through the area this evening, backing mountain-top winds slightly to the west and limiting accumulations as the Steamboat Ski Area is most favored with northwest flow. I would expect the best snows from this first part of the storm to be associated with this front Monday evening, leaving 1-4” of snow for the Tuesday morning report.
While we may see some snow showers for the first half of Tuesday, trailing energy from the Pacific Northwest brings a stronger cold front through northern Colorado later Tuesday, backing the winds to the northwest and bringing light to moderate snows for a time.
Amounts may be limited by decreasing moisture just as the winds turn to our favorable northwest direction, but we should see around 3-6” by a very cold Wednesday morning.
Showers will decrease for a time Wednesday before picking up again later in the day as a final wave in northwest flow brings another push of cold air and upward forcing. Again, moisture is sparse so I would expect 1-4” for the Thursday morning report.
At this point, a dry wave is forecast to move north of our area early on Friday before much warmer and drier weather is advertised to invade our area later in the day. The weekend forecast is uncertain , but generally unexciting as weak waves in westerly flow may suppress the driest air to our south and could bring clouds to northern Colorado.
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
I’d like to post a quick update as the storm is not evolving as previously forecast. Some cool air did sneak in here during the day, but the best precipitation from the leading edge of the storm ended up north of the Steamboat Springs area along the further-north-than-forecast position of the frontal boundary.
So the 4-8” I originally forecast for Thursday morning won’t happen as the front looks to remain north of our area for most of the overnight hours. Snows will have to wait until the main storm approaches the area around report time. I would now expect only and inch or two for the Thursday morning report, with snows increasing during the early morning hours and becoming moderate to heavy at times as the main cold front passes through.
Snows will continue in the cold, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the front through Friday night, and I’m hopeful we’ll see 4-8” of snow for the Friday morning report and another 4-8” for the Saturday morning report.
There may be a brief break in snows Saturday morning before a drier and weaker storm again brings snow showers to the Steamboat Springs area Saturday afternoon and overnight.
Monday, February 20, 2017
A storm off the West Coast is again pounding the California mountains, and energy ejecting out ahead of the storm will help form a southwest to northeast oriented front across the Great Basin. This front will bring clouds and the possibility of light showers to the Steamboat Springs area on Tuesday ahead of new storm cycle that that will persist into the weekend.
The front is forecast to move through northern Colorado early Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures and a likely burst of heavy snow down to the Yampa Valley floor. Light to moderate snows should continue during the day and overnight as the front stalls near our region and subtle, hard-to-resolve waves of energy periodically enhance snowfall rates.
Snowfall forecast amounts are bolstered by atmospheric cooling, but tempered by the predominantly west-southwest mountain-top winds and the location of the upper level jet stream just north of the Colorado border. Right now, I expect 4-8” of snow by Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, additional energy from the northern latitudes kicks the West Coast storm inland later Wednesday across the Great Basin, and another push of significantly colder air with moderate to heavy snows is expected sometime on Thursday. Good snow should follow the front as the upper level jet stream pushes south of northern Colorado and maintains the large-scale upward motion that is conducive to precipitation.
Light to moderate snows will continue overnight Thursday and through much of Friday as cool, moist and unstable northwest flow lingers behind the departing storm. If the storm comes together as advertised by some models, we could see as much as 6-12” by Friday morning and an additional 3-6” during the day.
Additional energy and cold air from the northern latitudes travels down the east side of a building Bering Sea ridge into the Gulf of Alaska, forming a new storm and reinforcing a generally west-to-east frontal boundary across the Great Basin. Models disagree on how much energy loiters off the West Coast vs. how much moves inland and the amount of ridging ahead of the storm, but unsettled conditions with seasonably cool temperatures are expected for the weekend.
Some models have the storm off the West Coast drawing in subtropical moisture and setting the stage for another atmospheric river event. Though the timing is uncertain, models have additional northern latitude energy again dropping into the Gulf of Alaska, displacing the hopefully very moist storm westward early in the work week and bringing another round of likely significant precipitation to the area.