Promising but complicated storm for the work week
Sunday, January 7, 2018
A sunny and warm afternoon has followed the 6” of snow at mid-mountain and 7” up top at the Steamboat Ski Area. Ahead of our next Pacific weather maker currently moving across the eastern Pacific, temperatures will warm further above average on a mostly sunny Monday as a ridge of high pressure is pushed eastward over our area.
The incoming Pacific storm is going to split as it crosses the central California coast early Tuesday, with the southern part of the split forecast to move across central Arizona and New Mexico through Wednesday. Additionally, cold air from western Canada is forecast to be dragged southward over our area later Wednesday by a trailing piece of energy in the northern part of the storm, producing likely significant snows.
Interestingly, part of the just-past storm left some energy off the southern California coast, and this has warmed and moistened and will be absorbed into the leading edge of the coming storm. Along with some very good moisture, warm temperatures and energy ejecting our of the storm will bring low-elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers on Tuesday.
I would expect 1-4” of snow at mid-mountain and above by Wednesday morning, but snows will increase and lower to the Yampa Valley floor during the day on Wednesday as the cold front washes over Colorado. There is considerable uncertainty with the track of the southern part of the system, and this may affect the amount of moisture and snow over our area. Moderate to heavy snow is looking likely, and at this point, I’ll guess 6-12” of snow by Thursday morning, with that forecast subject to change as this complicated storm evolves.
Snowfall should taper off by early Thursday as a break in the weather appears.
Another Pacific storm, this one quick-moving, will start the snow machine again around Thursday night, with light to moderate snowfall expected in moist and cool northwest flow for most of the day Friday. Models have trended slightly stronger with this storm, and an additional 3-6” from Thursday night through Friday night is possible.
While a ridge of high pressure was previously advertised for a nice weekend, the nice-weather window may be shortened as current model trends have more Pacific energy traveling over the top of the ridge and dragging some unsettled weather over our area for the second half of coming weekend.
Moderate snow Saturday night ahead of a new storm cycle midweek
Thursday, January 4, 2018
The atmospheric see-saw over North America discussed in Sundays’s forecast looks to finally change it’s tilt this weekend as incoming Pacific energy moves the western ridge of high pressure eastward, dislodging the bitterly cold air now plaguing the eastern two thirds of the country.
The Steamboat Springs area will see another mostly sunny today today and chilly morning Friday as the high pressure over the western U.S. translates over the Rockies. Clouds will increase starting later Friday as some moisture moves through the ridge, with a slight chance of light snow showers in the afternoon and evening.
A brief break in the moisture stream may allow the sun to reappear Saturday morning, but clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of the storm forecast for Saturday night. We have northwest flow, moisture and cold air, so moderate snow is likely. The storm structure is still changing in the weather forecast models, and it is not clear at this point how organized the storm will be as it crosses through Colorado., with some models indicating more of a split in the storm as it crosses our area.
At this point, I would expect 4-8” of snow by the Sunday morning report, with light snow showers continuing Sunday morning and producing another inch or two of accumulations. There could be more if the storm stays more organized, or less if the split is more severe.
Another ridge of high pressure moves across our area from later Sunday through Tuesday bringing unseasonably warm daytime temperatures back to the west, though afternoon highs and overnight lows may be tempered by moisture moving through the ridge on Monday night and Tuesday.
This moisture is ahead of a strong and likely significant storm forecast to cross the West Coast later Tuesday. There is lots of uncertainty with respect to the storm structure as well as how much cold air from the northern latitudes mixes with the storm, but right now warm snow showers are advertised starting Wednesday followed by increasing snows Wednesday night as cold air washes over northern Colorado.
Snows may continue for most of the day Thursday before the main part of the storm moves west, though it is not clear if some energy will be left behind for continued unsettled weather on Friday. If the current weather forecast models are to be believed, another ridge of high pressure brings nicer weather to the west for next weekend.
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Snow chances wait until next weekend
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Please resume your snow dances and sacrifices! You did great leading up to last weekend, when 32” of mid-mountain snow fell at the Steamboat Ski Area, but the holiday season must have distracted you, and now we are left with only dry weather through much of the next week.
The weather pattern over the continental U.S. is currently dominated by cold air over the eastern two thirds of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. Think of it like a giant see-saw, and it appears that stormy weather will not return to the west until the cold air in the east is dislodged. There are indications that this pattern may change around next weekend as incoming Pacific energy battles the West Coast ridge.
Until this battle ensues, mostly sunny skies and dry weather will dominate Colorado, with cool mornings in the Yampa Valley as temperature inversions (where temperature increases with altitude) are encouraged by the existing snow cover, a low sun angle and clear nights. The weak storm for New Year’s Day discussed in the last Thursday forecast has slowed and dried, and is now expected to bring only clouds for Monday night and slightly cooler and seasonable temperatures for a mostly sunny Tuesday.
Another weaker and drier storm further to our northeast will bring reinforce the slightly cooler temperatures on a still mostly sunny Wednesday.
By late Wednesday or early Thursday, Pacific energy breaks through part of the West Coast ridge and brings some precipitation to the West Coast. The major disagreement among the weather forecast models centers around how much cold air from the north, if any, mixes with the incoming Pacific energy.
Right now, our mostly sunny work week weather looks to end around Friday, and there is even a small chance of likely insignificant snow showers. After a small break, accumulating snow becomes far more likely around mid-weekend as part of the West Coast ridge translates across the country and eventually dislodges the cold air over the eastern U.S.
The evolution of this predicted pattern change will no doubt change over the coming week, and I hope to have a better handle on it for my Thursday forecast.
The cold mornings may lead to cold toes. I’ve used the awesome Hotronic foot warmers from their beginnings, and can honestly say that each iteration of the product is better than the last. I have the S4 custom, attached to my powerstrap so they never fall off, and my toes stay warm for my entire ski day.
Pleasant week ahead with some light snow chances
Thursday, December 28, 2017
A ridge of high pressure over the West Coast will keep northwest flow over the Steamboat Springs area this week. A large vortex or gyre of cold air over Hudson Bay, which is bringing frigid weather to the eastern two thirds of the country, will periodically elongate to the southwest, bringing episodes of light snow and cooler weather to our area later Saturday and Monday, New Year’s Day.
Seasonably warm temperatures with mostly sunny skies will rule the days through midday Saturday before our first chance of snow arrives later Saturday. A weak storm traveling over the West Coast ridge of high pressure will mix with some cold air to our northeast and may bring up to several of inches of snow for the Sunday morning report.
We are on the edge of some drier air by Sunday, so we may or may not see the sun during the day. Another weak storm in northwest flow has trended stronger in the latest numerical weather model runs for later Monday, and it appears northern Colorado will see another chance for some snow. Amounts are uncertain at this time, but details should be clearer by my Sunday forecast.
Much drier air overspreads Colorado for Tuesday and Wednesday leading to some brilliant and seasonably warm winter days.
Lots of uncertainty for late next week as the West Coast ridge of high pressure is forecast to evolve. Numerical forecast models have struggled mightily with this the past week, and this is important for the western U.S. as the ridge is currently acting like a giant block to incoming Pacific energy. Models agree that eventually the West Coast ridge will break down and allow the jet stream and associated storm track to travel more west to east across the western U.S., but exactly how and when that will happen has been changing daily.
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Christmas storm to bring more snow
Sunday, December 24, 2017
Steamboat Springs did quite well from this last storm, with a foot on my deck and 18” at mid-mountain. Unfortunately, the strong westerly winds near the end of the storm adversely affected the snow quality today as wind slabs made for uneven skiing. But that could be fixed starting around midnight tonight when another strong storm from the northwest begins snowfall again.
This storm is similar to the Saturday storm, but the temperatures will not be as cold as the -3F up top this morning. (Made me glad to have the awesome Hotronic foot warmers for my toes and Black Diamond lobster glove for my hands). Additionally, the winds won’t be quite as strong and they should not stray to the west as strongly, leaving what falls in better shape than today. I would expect 4-8” of snow for the Monday morning report, with another 4-8” during the day.
Snows will diminish after noon Monday, and taper off during the day Tuesday. Another 1-4” will likely fall after the mountain closes Monday.
Along with seasonable temperatures, there is a chance for some light snow from about Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon and again Friday ahead of another possible weekend storm. However, numerical forecast models are struggling with the timing and strength of the storms in the relatively fast jet stream, and the Saturday storm is much weaker in the European ECMWF.
Amazingly, model agreement increases late in the forecast period with another possibly significant storm moving over our area after New Years Day.
