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Winter blast still timed for mid week

Friday, November 29, 2013

After a nice Friday and Saturday, a weak wave approaching from the northwest will produce some light snow showers beginning Sunday morning and continuing through Monday around noon. This wave is trending slightly stronger in the models, and I might expect 3-6” on the hill by Monday afternoon based upon this morning’s model runs.

A nice Monday afternoon and Tuesday before a storm currently moving across Alaska will affect our area perhaps as early as Tuesday night. . Some energy splits from this storm by Wednesday and drags cold air across the northern third of the west. The rest of the storm drops south along the west coast and turns the flow over our area to the southwest. Good snows by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning should occur along the frontal boundary in our proximity.

There are differences in how the storm to our west evolves, but cold winter-like temperatures are expected. Currently, it appears the front will become quasi-stationary over our area from Tuesday night through Thursday or so, keeping the coldest air to our north There will be periods of moderate to heavy snow as energy ejects from the storm to our west along the frontal boundary until a Pacific wave rounds a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and kicks the main part of the storm over us around Friday. More snow and colder temperatures are expected then, and into the weekend as additional waves of energy form the north move over the area in the very cold and unstable air mass.

The ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is handled differently by different models, so it is not clear if this winter pattern persists into the following week.

Well advertised pattern change still forecast to occur midweek

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Some very light snow is a possibility during the day Sunday, but amounts will be minimal.

Attention turns to the pattern change around midweek that was forecast as early as a week ago. A storm currently moving across Alaska will rapidly intensify in the Gulf of Alaska the weekend. Some energy splits from this storm by Wednesday and drags cold air across the northern third of the west. The rest of the storm drops south along the west coast and turns the flow over our area to the southwest. Good snow by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning should occur along the frontal boundary in our proximity.

Snow should be relatively steady until intensifying later in the work week as a cold wave from the polar regions kicks the storm over California to the west and over our area. I would expect significant accumulations from Wednesday through Friday before very cold and dryer mid-winter like air will moves over our area by Friday and especially Saturday.

Strong inversion are likely to develop and persist, keepiing mountain valleys in the deep freeze even as the upper elevations begin to moderate by the end of the weekend.

Likely light snow this weekend followed by big storm potential as storm track shifts

Monday, November 25, 2013

As the departing storm soaks the Gulf Coast and the the east coast during Thanksgiving week, a ridge over the west coast produces generally warm temperatures and dry weather until the weekend. A wave to our northeast grazes the area on Tuesday bringing some slight cooling and clouds before temperatures warm and skies around mid-week.

A strong storm in the Pacific crashes into the west coast ridge around Thanksgiving Day allowing some precipitation to reach southern California by Friday. Coincidentally, a strong wave breaks off from the polar vortex and moves south across Alaska, intensifying in the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. A piece of energy from this storm is currently forecast to move over our area sometime this weekend producing snow as the mountain-top flow turns to the northwest and moistens.

There is a lot of uncertainty with regards to how much interaction between this wave in northwest flow and the storm moving eastward from southern California. Previous forecasts had a dry forecast for the weekend, but current forecasts are more optimistic.

But more certain is that a storm cycle for the northwest and Rocky Mountains begins as the Gulf of Alaska low begins to move south and east. Likely heavy snow starts this weekend along the northwest coast and move inland before reaching our area around Tuesday. Current forecasts have this as a major and long-lasting pattern change that may provide significant snows and cold winter temperatures through at least early December.

Stormy period may follow quiet Thanksgiving week

Sunday, November 24, 2013

The departing upper level low currently near the Four Corners may produce some snow for our area this afternoon, though central and southern Colorado should do much better as they are closer to the storm. A ridge builds over the west coast early in the week creating drier northwest flow over our area.

Generally quite weather is forecast for Thanksgiving week as four disturbances to our north graze northern Colorado on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. The most promising wave is the weekend wave, but models currently have only very light precipitation over our area then.

These disturbances are a result of energy being diverted around the west coast ridge, but the ridge finally breaks down by the weekend before becoming reestablished off the coast. This should allow waves rotating around the polar vortex (a persistent large-scale cyclone near the pole surrounding the very cold air generated in the polar regions during the winter) to finally influence our area early in the week after Thanksgiving.

Incidentally, he forecast I made late last week for the east coast looks to verify as the cutoff low that has been influencing us for the last few days moves east. It looks to soak the Gulf Coast before turning into a nor’easter by Wednesday. And unfortunately for the eastern ski areas, heavy rain is currently forecast to proceed the cold air behind the storm, although a small eastward change in the storm track could change that forecast to all snow.

Pesky cutoff low influences northern Colorado for the weekend before nice weather returns to start Thanksgiving week

Friday, November 22, 2013

About 2.5” of heavy dense snow on my deck yesterday morning, and another 2” of very light powder this morning, although all of that fell by 6 pm Thursday.

The cutoff low currently to our south and west will wobble eastward through the southern Great Basin and then New Mexico this weekend. While there is a ribbon of dry air just to our north, it appears this will be pushed north of us as this cutoff low approaches. There may even be snow snow showers on Saturday and especially Sunday before clearing for the Thanksgiving week as a ridge builds over the west coast behind the departing storm.

Incidentally, it appears this storm will create issues along the Gulf Coast early in the week before possibly turning into a major Nor’easter. This will likely affecting the entire eastern seaboard right around the Thanksgiving holiday, especially if it phases with another storm forecast to be along the Canadian border around that time.

There may be some showers near the end of the week as a storm off the coast interacts with the ridge and begins to send some energy over our area, although the latest model run keeps the storm too far west and south for that. It appears we won’t get a lot of weather from this storm, but it may set the stage for colder air from Canada to begin to affect the northern Rockies by the week after Thanksgiving.

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