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Snows likely Monday and Thursday

Sunday, February 10, 2019

The current sunny skies and relatively warm temperatures in Steamboat Springs this Suday will give way first to clouds later today and snow and cold on Monday as a vigorous cold front passes through Colorado. A break in the weather is advertised through midweek before another storm brings snow back into the forecast for Thursday followed by a fair bit of uncertainty for the following weekend.

A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has directed cold air from the northern latitudes across the West the past week, and the next storm to impact our area tomorrow has already dropped 42” of snow in the past 24 hours at Heavenly! The storm will travel across the Great Basin today and bring a sharp cold front through our area early tomorrow morning. Rapidly falling temperatures, wind and heavy to intense snowfall rates are expected to accompany the front, with snow and winds quickly dying down after the front passes. The quickly moving storm will limit snowfall, and I now only expect 2-5” by noon on Monday before showers end by the afternoon.

We should see cold temperatures to start Tuesday, though they will quickly moderate at the higher elevations by later Tuesday and Wednesday as we see westerly flow ahead of the next storm. This next storm will travel through the ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska rather than over the top, and the trajectory limits mixing with cold air from the northern latitudes. Model trends have weakened the storm with a further north trajectory, but right now I still expect good snowfall during the day Thursday, with 4-8” expected by Thursday evening before the snowfall ends.

Friday will start chilly. though again westerly flow well in advance of the next Pacific storm brings warming most noticeable at the higher elevations. There is a lot of uncertainty for next weekend as models disagree on the track of these Pacific storms and whether the southern section of these storms are left behind off the coast of southern California. This is important for our weather as these left-behind storms may provide a rich source of tropical moisture that could be tapped by upcoming Pacific storms that follow similar trajectories. At this point, the weather for next weekend could be warm or cold and wet or dry, but this should be resolved by my next weather narrative on Thursday.

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