Nice days around a small storm Tuesday
Sunday, November 10, 2024
Temperatures are just breaking the freezing mark with nary a cloud in the sky this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs. After almost a week of below-average temperatures and more clouds than not, sunny skies and warmer weather are on the way this workweek except for a quick-moving storm arriving by Tuesday afternoon.
The second visit yesterday from the storm that first affected our area on Tuesday left just under four inches of snow on my deck near the base of the ski area and seven inches at mid-mountain between Friday and Saturday afternoon, a bit better than forecast in my last weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
This resulted from easterly winds carrying moisture around the storm eddy over northeast Colorado yesterday. While winds from that direction usually doom our precipitation chances due to the warming and drying resulting from winds downsloping off the Park Range, these eddies can sometimes produce good snowfall thanks to the dominant upward motion from the storm.
The weather forecast models did predict this, but they have been wrong in the past, in both directions, making these large storms that produce easterly winds overhead a vexing forecast challenge.
But that won’t be a problem for our next storm on Tuesday. Ahead of that, we should see sunny skies and temperatures warming into the forties today, around our average of 45 F and the warmest day in a week since the 61 F last Saturday.
Even warmer temperatures approaching fifty degrees under continued mostly sunny skies are forecast for Veterans Day ahead of a storm currently brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. That storm is forecast to cross the West Coast Monday night and bring a cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will probably reach the mid-forties again under increasingly cloudy skies ahead of the front, with precipitation quickly changing to snow at the lower elevations as the front passes.
The bulk of the precipitation should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning along and behind the front in favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow, with 1-4” in town and 4-8” on the hill, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass under the heavier showers. There is some uncertainty regarding how cohesive the storm will be and its southern extent, but it should be over by Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures only in the mid-thirties despite some afternoon sun.
Winds shift to be from the west behind the storm, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the forties on Thursday and around fifty degrees on Friday. Another storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands is forecast to split to some degree as it approaches the West Coast at the end of the workweek, leading to significant uncertainty about how the storm may or may not affect us next weekend or early next week.
So enjoy the sunny and warmer weather to start and end the workweek, hope for more snow than forecast from the Tuesday storm, and check back for more details about the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Wintry storm to revisit later Friday through Saturday
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Sunny skies and cool temperatures in the mid to low-thirties are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. The storm from last Tuesday will revisit our area later Friday through Saturday before skies clear and temperatures warm on Sunday and Veterans Day.
The Election Day storm was about twelve hours faster than forecast in my last weather narrative on Sunday afternoon, and left between four and five inches of snow in town and ten inches at the Steamboat Ski Resort mid-mountain powdercam. After the coldest night of the season so far, with a low of 5 F at the Bob Adams airport and 2 F at the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area, around fifteen degrees below our average of 19 F, a beautiful cool and sunny day is over our area.
But that storm is not done with us yet, as it is currently an eddy cut off from the jet stream over the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico. The storm is forecast to move eastward today before turning northward, traveling along the eastern Colorado border on Friday, and reaching the Nebrask-Colorado border by Saturday morning. While the eastern Colorado Plains will receive the heaviest snowfall, the storm’s track first brings easterly winds across the Park Range through tonight and early Friday before turning to be from the north later Friday and the northwest from Friday night into Saturday.
Moisture is forecast to wrap around the eddy, and if the storm is not too far east and similar to the current forecast, snow showers should begin Friday night and continue through the day Saturday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow on the backside of the eddy. Another 3-6” could fall on the hill by Saturday afternoon with an inch or two in town.
Winds will turn to be from the west as the eddy moves into the upper MidWest on Sunday, bringing dry air and a beautiful day with temperatures warming into the upper forties, several degrees above our average of 45 F, and the warmest temperatures since the 61 F last Saturday.
The beautiful weather continues for Veterans Day before a storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands may affect our area around Tuesday. Enjoy the wintry landscape this weekend, which is a marked change from the dry and warm weather a week ago, and tune in to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on a possible Tuesday storm.
Cold start to the workweek gets even colder by midweek
Sunday, November 3, 2024
After a bit of snow this morning, temperatures are around forty degrees late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs under cloudy skies thanks to a large wintry storm system affecting the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will only get colder through midweek with December-like temperatures advertised as a stronger storm follows the current storm, with snow tonight into Monday followed by more snow between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There should be a break Thursday, though uncertainty looms large for the end of the workweek.
The weather has certainly changed quickly, with the upper-fifty-degree high temperatures yesterday representing mid-October rather than early November. And weather-whiplash is straight ahead as the high temperature on Wednesday is forecast to be only around thirty degrees, representing mid-December!
Two wintry storm systems are responsible; the first is a large and splitting trough of low pressure extending from the Yukon to Arizona and the second is a developing storm moving across the Aleutian Islands that is also forecast to split as it approaches the Rocky Mountains on Wednesday.
These splitting storms cause forecast headaches as small changes in the amount of energy proportioned between the northern and southern areas of the storm can cause large differences in the storm evolution. And if the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy cut off from the jet stream, as the current storm is doing and the next storm is forecast to do, the speed and track of the eddy are difficult to predict due to the lack of upper-level steering winds and upstream energy.
With that in mind, after the inch of snow at mid-mountain and two inches up top this morning, snows should pick up again this evening and last into Monday morning as cool air follows behind the northern part of the split storm. We could see some light winds from the east as the southern part of the storm is in the process of forming an eddy over New Mexico, but they should not be strong enough to squash precipitation, and we could see another 4-8” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort and an inch or two in town by Monday morning. Be sure to check the latest movies of the Steamboat Powdercam and the Steamboat Mid-mountain Powdercam on the SnowAlarm home page for evidence.
Snow showers may stick around through the Monday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm, with high temperatures only in the upper-thirties, about ten degrees below our average of 49 F.
Earlier weather forecasts had a break on Tuesday, but that may be short-lived as the Aleutian Island storm moves quickly across the Gulf of Alaska and over Vancouver on Monday. It will mix with some arctic air from the Yukon as it moves over Idaho Monday night and northern Rockies on Tuesday. The storm will split Tuesday afternoon with the southern portion of the storm bringing a cold front through our area sometime around Tuesday evening accompanied by moderate to heavy snow showers.
Lighter snow showers should occur through the day Wednesday as the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy over the Four Corners by early Thursday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, we could see another 5-10” of snow on the hill and 2-5” town. The cold day on Wednesday will be followed by a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures forecast to be in the single digits, over ten degrees below our average of 19 F.
The eddy is forecast to travel eastward across the southern Colorado border on Friday before lifting to the northeast, and it is this northeastward movement that introduces forecast uncertainty for Friday and Saturday. We may see another round of likely light snows for Friday and Saturday if the storm is close enough, or cool but precipitation-free weather if it is further away.
So enjoy the wintry workweek ahead as a prelude to the opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort, which unbelievably is only three weeks away from yesterday, and I’ll have more details on the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
