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Weather to start changing this weekend

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Another picture perfect summery day is over the Steamboat Springs area with temperatures in the low sixties under cloudless skies late this Thursday morning. After reaching almost eighty degrees today, high temperatures through Saturday will fall to the mid seventies, along with increasing afternoon breezes and then clouds by Saturday ahead of an approaching storm for next week. By Sunday, the storm will be close enough to drop high temperatures to near seventy degrees along with more wind, with that cooling trend continuing into next week.

A large storm previously in the Gulf of Alaska is being forced eastward across the northern Rockies by our next weather maker taking its place. This storm is currently grabbing some cold air moving southward across Alaska and is forecast to elongate southward along the West Coast on Saturday before cutting off from the main jet stream and forming a wobbly eddy that moves eastward into the Great Basin on Sunday.

There won’t be much change to our gorgeous early fall weather through Friday except a degree or two of cooling and afternoon breezes out of the southwest. Those breezes will increase on Saturday along with some spotty Pacific moisture that will bring some increasing high clouds and perhaps even a shower that would be most likely at the highest elevations to our north.

As the storm moves into Nevada on Sunday, winds will increase and slightly turn to be more from the south as cooler air begins to filter into the area. High temperatures will drop to near seventy degrees, which is still several degrees above our rapidly falling average of 67 F for the first day of October. Clouds will come and go with some showers possible as a lobe of energy ejects out of the storm to our northwest and possibly grazes our area.

The cooling trend will remain in place through through the beginning of the next work week as the storm rotates through the Great Basin on Monday and moves overhead during Tuesday. So enjoy the currently gorgeous early fall weather, and check back on Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll look at how much and what type of precipitation we may see during the coming work week.

Spectacular fall weather to last through the work week

Sunday, September 24, 2023

A cool morning with low temperatures in the upper twenties has already warmed into the fifties under brilliant bluebird skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. More spectacular fall weather with cool mornings near freezing and warm sunny afternoons in the seventies is on tap for the rest of the work week, but major uncertainty looms for the following weekend weather.

A ridge of high pressure currently over the Rockies is forecast to build this work week ahead of a evolving area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Incoming waves of Pacific energy are expected to deform this low pressure area and move it eastward in pieces across the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada through midweek.

Meanwhile, a wave currently east of Japan is forecast to mix with some subtropical moisture near the Dateline by midweek before it moves into the Gulf of Alaska during the end of the work week. It is then forecast to intensify as it mixes with some cold air moving southward from Alaska before moving first southward along the West Coast and then eastward into the Great Basin by next weekend.

Our weather will remain unaffected by these upstream machinations through the work week as warm sunny days and cool clear nights prevail under and eventually behind the ridge of high pressure currently overhead. Our high temperatures should be right around our average of seventy degrees today with low temperatures around our average of freezing, with high temperatures rising into the mid seventies on Monday and even upper seventies from Tuesday through Thursday. Low temperatures will also rise several degrees keeping morning temperatures above freezing, except for those low lying areas around river drainages.

Enjoy the spectacular early fall weather this last week of September since there is a lot of uncertainty with what happens to that eventual storm entering the Great Basin next weekend, both between and within the weather forecast models. Forecast high temperatures for next Sunday, for example, range from the upper forties to the low seventies in town, and depend upon whether that storm moves overhead or stays to our west. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I hope to have more clarity on what weather we may see for next weekend.

Quintessential Colorado fall weekend ahead

Thursday, September 21, 2023

The cloudy morning skies have cleared this Thursday mid afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures right around seventy degrees along with breezy winds from the southwest. The breezes will continue on Friday ahead of a mostly dry cold front later in the day that will bring sub freezing low temperatures to the Yampa Valley floor this weekend. But sunny skies will prevail and after a noticeably cool Saturday, which is entirely appropriate for the first day of fall, high temperatures will warm for Sunday and the following work week.

An eddy of low pressure currently located over the Oregon and Nevada borders is forecast to travel though Idaho tomorrow and Wyoming on Saturday. An older eddy of low pressure that was off the California coast earlier in the week has slingshot around the Oregon eddy and moved overhead this morning, bringing the cloudy skies and gusty winds.

The skies have cleared behind that piece of energy, and as the Oregon eddy moves eastward, a dry cold front will be dragged through our area late Friday afternoon or evening. The temperatures are cold enough for snow around and above mid mountain, but the best yet still meager moisture is located to our north, which is where the best chance for snowflakes will occur above elevations of 8000′.

Clouds associated with and behind the front are forecast to clear by Saturday morning, starting the first day of fall with likely sub freezing temperatures as the autumnal equinox occurs at 12:50 am Saturday. The equinox occurs when the sun moves southward across the equator and marks the astronomical beginning of the fall season. It is also when our amount of daylight is decreasing most rapidly, and we are currently losing two minutes and thirty nine seconds of that a day, though that pace will gradually decrease through the winter solstice in December.

Despite sunny skies, high temperatures should only rise to the low sixties on Saturday, almost ten degrees below our average of 71 F. Another similarly cold Sunday morning follows with low temperatures around five degrees below our average of 33 F, and perhaps more than that in the favored low lying areas around the river drainages.

But a building ridge of high pressure brings continued sunny skies and warming temperatures back toward average on Sunday and even the mid seventies for the start of the work week. So enjoy what will be a quintessential Colorado fall weekend as the colors have started to appear, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll look at how long this beautiful weather will last.

Modest shower chances return ahead of Friday cold front

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Another spectacular late summer day is over the Steamboat Springs area this early Sunday afternoon with temperatures in the low seventies under mostly sunny skies. Some meager mosiure passing overhead will lead to some shower chances on Monday night and Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a mostly dry cold front for the end of the work week that will bring winds to our area starting Thursday.

A ridge of high pressure is currently over the Rocky Mountains while an eddy of low pressure spins off the California coast. As a storm now in the Gulf of Alaska moves eastward early in the work week, some moisture from the eddy will be dragged toward Colorado on Monday, and though the best precipitation has shifted south in the latest weather forecast models, we should see a chance for some light showers on Monday night and again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile a storm currently over the Aleutian Islands is forecast to quickly move through the Gulf of Alaska while mixing with some cold air from Alaska before approaching the Vancouver coast later Tuesday and moving south. By midweek, the storm should be over Oregon which will allow the California eddy to slingshot around first its southern end and then its eastern side.

Look for increasing winds on Thursday as what remains of the eddy moves quickly northeast through the Great Basin and grazes our area. The main storm then takes an eastward track through the Great Basin later Thursday and brings a mostly dry cold front to our area on Friday, along with continued breezy to windy conditions that may persist through a dry Saturday.

At one point last week, the storm was forecast to bring a chance of our first accumulating snow at the Steamboat Resort, but now it looks like only some sparse flakes are possible along and behind the front on Friday and Friday night.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the end of week forecast, with a high temperature range on Friday forecast between the low fifties and our average in the low seventies, so there may still be significant changes in the forecast by my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

Gorgeous weather ahead

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Temperatures are only around sixty degrees under cloudy skies this Thursday mid afternoon in Steamboat Springs after a cold front with showers rolled through town around noon. There are several hours of some clearing behind the front, after which we may see some more showers redevelop through early this evening. There may still be a shower on a slightly warmer Friday, but plenty of sun with temperatures in the low seventies follows for our weekend.

A wave of low pressure extending from the Canadian Plains through the southern Rockies has moved through our area today along with a cold front and some showers around noon. Though the northern part of the wave will scoot eastward, some energy hangs back over Colorado through Friday, keeping high temperatures in the upper sixties, around five degrees below our average of 74 F. There may be some showers, though right now short term models have precipitation mostly staying to our south as drier air behind the front begins to invade the area.

The dry air behind the front is firmly entrenched over Colorado for the weekend as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. That means gorgeous early fall like weather with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures right around average.

Enough moisture may stick around through Saturday morning to prevent temperatures from dipping low enough for frost, and if that is the case, some fog is possible early Saturday morning, which may also occur Friday morning in low lying areas.

The beautiful weekend weather looks to stick around into the beginning of the next work week, though a weather system is forecast to approach our area after midweek. So enjoy the weekend, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to learn the details of our next possible weather maker.

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15 June 2019

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