Passing showers possible through the weekend

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Temperatures are in the upper seventies under mostly sunny skies in the town of Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. After a couple of delightfully cool and dare I say fall-like days this past Tuesday and yesterday, look for temperatures to rebound to the low eighties today and lasting through the weekend. Some moisture has returned to the region today and may result in a chance of passing showers in the afternoon and evening, with those chances highest, but still modest, today and Friday.

A ridge of high pressure is currently over Texas while a weak and broad trough of low pressure is off the West Coast. Winds from the south between these features have transported warmer temperatures and some monsoonal moisture overhead, leading to today’s clouds. There may be a possibility of passing showers today that produce more wind than rain as whatever falls out of the cloud evaporates in the dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

More of the same is forecast for Friday, with perhaps a slightly better chance of rain reaching the ground as the lower atmosphere moistens thanks to any windy showers today. While another push of monsoonal moisture is forecast across most of Colorado on Saturday, northwesterly winds associated with the jet stream to our north may be far enough south to discourage that moisture from making it over our area, or not.

A wave in the jet stream currently approaching the southern British Columbia coast is forecast to graze our area on Sunday, though not much weather will be associated with it as moisture is sparse and the still strong mid August sun will quickly modify the air mass.

Previous iterations of the weather forecast models had monsoonal moisture returning to our area by Sunday afternoon, but now the latest runs show the grazing cool front strong enough to keep the monsoon moisture south of our area on Sunday, and likely Monday as well.

So be sure to enjoy another summer weekend from our rapidly dwindling supply, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss whether our area sees a return of monsoonal moisture after the start of the next work week.