Weekend dries out ahead of next monsoonal moisture push Monday
Thursday, August 1, 2019
A cool and cloudy Thursday in Steamboat Springs is the result of monsoonal moisture from the south moving overhead. We’ll see a good chance of showers today before conditions dry heading into and lasting most of the weekend. By later Sunday, another push of monsoonal moisture will increase precipitation chances for Monday, and though moisture will decrease for the rest of work week, enough will hang around for the usual chance of afternoon and early evening storms.
Most of the U.S. is currently dominated by an expansive ridge of high pressure centered over the Rocky Mountains. A subtropical disturbance that is currently traveling through the ridge has brought plenty of moisture but cool temperatures to our area, with the 64 F noontime temperature running over 10 F below typical for this time of day.
There is no strong lifting from the subtropical disturbance, so the cool temperatures from the thick cloud cover has inhibited surface heating enough to reduce, but not eliminate, the chance of showers for today and tonight. In fact, thinning cloud cover to our southwest has allowed a line of storms to form in the southwestern corner of the state, and these may be headed toward our area later this afternoon or evening.
As the subtropical disturbance moves east of our area on Friday, temperatures will warm to near our average of 82 F, with further warming and drying expected for Saturday as the ridge of high pressure amplifies over the west.
Concurrently, a series of disturbances drops toward the Gulf of Alaska from the north and split, with some of the energy staying offshore around the Pacific Northwest coast and some racing across the Canadian Plains later in the weekend. Meanwhile, another subtropical disturbance is advertised to move north along the western periphery of the ridge of high pressure over the west even as this ridge is flattened by the disturbance moving across Canada, so look for increasing clouds later Sunday, with precipitation chances increasing again for Sunday night and Monday as this disturbance moves near our area.
The ridge over the west stays put during the work week as it is anchored between the disturbances off the Pacific Northwest coast and the developing Canadian Plains disturbance that is forecast to turn into a strong storm just north of the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. Even though our area will warm and dry for the rest of the work week, enough moisture will remain under the ridge for the typical chance of afternoon and evening storms.
By the following weekend, weather forecast models have the the Pacific Northwest disturbance moving eastward along the southern Canadian border, which significantly flattens the ridge of high pressure over the west. Dry air is advertised to our north, but monsoonal moisture remains to our south, leading to an uncertain forecast for that weekend.
Another monsoonal surge of moisture peaks on Thursday
Sunday, July 28, 2019
Sunny skies with some fair-weather cumulus clouds are currently over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday morning, after a well-advertised and productive monsoon event yesterday brought around four tenths of an inch of beneficial rains to our area during the afternoon and evening. We’ll dry out today and Monday before moisture increases again starting Tuesday afternoon and peaking on Thursday, when we will see the best chance of wetting rains for the upcoming week.
A ridge of high pressure over the west has been flattened by not only the monsoonal disturbance yesterday, but also a storm currently moving across the southern Canadian Plains. Much drier has moved overhead and will persist through Monday with very little or no chance for precipitation. High temperatures today will be on the cooler side of our 82 F average, but as the western ridge of high pressure rebuilds, high temperatures will increase to be on the warmer side of average on Monday.
By Tuesday, another subtropical disturbance is forecast to move northward across Arizona along the western periphery of the ridge of high pressure, very similar to the disturbance that brought the rains yesterday, though further east. So another monsoonal surge is likely for our area, with upper level moisture increasing on Tuesday for a chance of afternoon or evening storms that would produce more wind than rain.
The disturbance is forecast to move north across Utah on Wednesday before rounding the top of the ridge and moving near our area on Thursday. Moisture will increase at all levels of the atmosphere, giving a good chance of wetting rains for later Wednesday and a better chance for Thursday.
The western ridge of high pressure is forecast to quickly rebuild behind the departing storm on Friday, thanks to the southerly flow ahead of a series of disturbances dropping into the Gulf of Alaska from the north. We will dry out substantially by then and heading into the weekend, even as the southerly flow keeps some moisture around, though perhaps not enough for precipitation. That looks to change after the weekend as another monsoonal surge is forecast by some weather forecast models to move over our area and increase precipitation chances for the following work week.
Next best chance of showers Saturday
Thursday, July 25, 2019
The Steamboat Springs area is currently experiencing a relatively rare humid Thursday morning, as temperatures in the lower seventies combine with a locally high relative humidity (RH) of 50%. After a chance of afternoon and evening storms tonight and Friday, we’ll see a good chance for wetting rains on Saturday before several days of drier weather are forecast to last through the early part of next week. Moisture then returns around midweek for more precipitation chances.
A 50% RH may not sound high, compared to the seventies and eighties experienced along the Eastern Seaboard this past weekend, but it sure feels humid compared to yesterday when RH was in the low-thirties this time of day. Low-level dry air filtering in from Wyoming this afternoon will help dry the air mass, but there will still be a chance of afternoon and evening storms today and Friday.
A high chance of showers exist for most of Saturday as a monsoonal disturbance currently traveling north across southern California makes its way along the western periphery of ridge of high pressure located over the Desert Southwest. The disturbance will be forced eastward across the Great Basin on Friday, thanks to a storm near Vancouver that crosses the coast early in the weekend, and moves over our area during the day Saturday.
Showers on Saturday could start early in the day, perhaps before noon, before becoming heavier in the afternoon and evening. While afternoon temperatures remain below average due to the clouds, humidity will once again climb leading to periods of localized moderate to heavy rain for those areas fortunate enough to be under a slow-moving storm cell.
Much drier air is forecast to wash over our area starting Sunday behind both the monsoon disturbance and the Vancouver storm racing eastward across the southern Canadian Plains. We should see plenty of sun with temperatures near or slightly above our average of 82 F that last through the early work week.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to drift eastward from the Desert Southwest to the southern and central Rockies through Monday, and the southerly flow along the western periphery of the ridge will once again draw moisture northward. So afternoon and evening shower chances reappear starting Tuesday and last through the work week, with chances increasing for the following weekend as a more robust surge of monsoonal moisture is advertised by some weather forecast models.
Shower chances increase midweek
Sunday, July 21, 2019
Steamboat Springs is currently seeing warm temperatures and sunny skies this Sunday morning. High temperatures these past several days have been running up to five degrees above our 82 F average, which is expected to continue for the upcoming week, save for a couple of pulses of monsoonal moisture that will increase shower chances around midweek and again mid-next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is currently amplifying over the West behind a disturbance traveling across the upper Midwest and ahead of a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska. While we will see more warm and mostly dry weather on Monday and Tuesday, the cool front associated with this disturbance will bring relief from the excessive heat for the eastern two thirds of the country through midweek.
Meanwhile, a piece of the Gulf of Alaska storm is ejected later Tuesday and once again suppresses the ridge of high pressure over the West southward as it travels across the northern U.S. border. The resultant westerly flow over the Great Basin bends a plume of monsoonal moisture forecast to be over Utah on Tuesday eastward over our area for Wednesday, increasing the chance of wetting rains, with those areas lucky enough to see precipitation possibly experiencing brief and localized moderate to heavy rain.
The forecast for the last several days had this monsoonal moisture plume hanging around for the rest of the work week, but weather forecast now models have a wedge of dry air intruding over Wyoming and northern Colorado. So shower chances now look to decrease markedly or even disappear for the end of the work week and headed into the following weekend, along with some increased westerly winds on Thursday.
But we will be on the edge of better moisture, and indeed, another pulse of monsoonal moisture is forecast for around mid-next weekend. At this point, this does not look to stick around for more than a day or two as dry air is forecast to return to our area for the last week of July.
Moisture begins increasing this weekend
Thursday, July 18, 2019
The Steamboat Springs area is enjoying a quintessential mid-summer day with sunny skies and warm temperatures. This will continue into the first part of the weekend before a weak cool front grazes north central Colorado and briefly increases atmospheric moisture later Saturday and Sunday. Drying is then forecast for the early part of the work week before a monsoonal surge of moisture moves overhead starting around midweek.
A ridge of high pressure over the west has been flattened by a seasonably strong jet stream traveling across the northern Rockies. Winds will become breezy from the west again today and tomorrow as a disturbance passes north of our area with temperatures several degrees above our average high of 82 F.
By later Saturday, the disturbance drags a weak cool front through northern and eastern Colorado. While the strongest storms will be relegated to the Front Range and eastern Colorado, we will see increasing clouds with a small chance of an afternoon or evening shower on both Saturday and Sunday. These will likely produce more wind than rain as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry.
Ahead of another disturbance that moves east across the northern Rockies from the Gulf of Alaska later in the work week, the ridge of high pressure over the west amplifies. As discussed in the weather narrative last week, subtle changes in the location and strength of the ridge can alter the trajectory of monsoonal moisture that ends up over our area, but right now Monday and at least most of Tuesday are looking hot and dry as the monsoonal moisture is transported northward into Utah.
By around midweek, the Gulf of Alaska disturbance makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest and again flattens the ridge of high pressure over the west as it moves east across the northern Rockies. This bends the monsoonal moisture plume towards our area around Wednesday when we should see increasing moisture and at least some cloud cover that will lower afternoon temperatures closer to average.
Shower chances look to increase after midweek and into the following weekend as the monsoonal moisture plume is forecast to remain near or over our area.