Thursday, November 28, 2019
Mostly sunny skies prevail over Steamboat Springs this Thanksgiving morning. Our next storm is currently affecting the southern West Coast and the Great Basin, and will bring a round of snows and cold temperatures from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Except for the possibility of some higher elevation snow showers on Tuesday, quiet weather is expected for the rest of the upcoming week until the next storm around Thursday.
An expansive storm currently located off the coast of central California will move inland today and across the Great Basin on Friday. Temperatures have warmed in the dry southerly flow ahead of the storm, though we should see increasing clouds later today and overnight as the storm approaches.
Snows look to hold off through Friday morning as the storm has slowed a bit from my earlier forecast. A strong cold front associated with the storm will pass through our area in the early afternoon on Friday, turning our winds from the southwest to the west and bringing a period of moderate to heavy snow showers and sharply colder temperatures. Snows should become steadier by later in the day and overnight before decreasing during the day Saturday and ending by Saturday night. Winds will turn from westerly to northwesterly Friday night and increase, making travel difficult from Friday afternoon through most of Saturday.
I would expect 6-12” of snowfall on the cold Saturday morning snow report, with 1-4” of that occurring during Friday afternoon. We could see some Steamboat Magic between report time and ski time Saturday morning as moderate to heavy snow showers in breezy to windy northwest flow are expected in the morning before decreasing through the day and ending around Saturday night. We could see another 3-6” during the day Saturday which would be reported Sunday morning.
Sunday morning will start cold again, though temperatures should rise by the afternoon, especially at the higher elevations, as a transient ridge of high pressure moves over our area behind the departing storm.
Meanwhile, our next weather-maker, currently south of the Aleutian Islands, will split on Monday as it moves through the Gulf of Alaska. While the southern part of the split warms and moistens well off the coast of California early in the work week, the northern part of the storm races across the northern Rockies and grazes our area on Tuesday. Weather forecast models have trended weaker for our area, with only a brief period of light, high-elevation snow showers now expected during the day Tuesday.
By Wednesday, an upstream Pacific storm moves the loitering southern piece of the grazing Tuesday storm eastward across the Great Basin, bringing increasing clouds later Wednesday and the possibility of relatively warm and dense accumulating snows on Thursday. There is uncertainty with respect to the track of the storm, however, and our snow amounts will depend on the eventual proximity of the storm. Stay tuned to my next weather narrative on Sunday for the latest on this warm storm.
Weather forecast models agree that a ridge of high pressure moves through our area as we head into the following weekend, ahead of the next storm which may affect us by late in the weekend.