Cooler temperatures for most of the next week
Thursday, July 26, 2018
A battle between the hot and dry weather associated with the persistent ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Pacific energy traveling to the north of Steamboat Springs will bring cooler temperatures closer to average to our area through most of the next week. The northern latitudes have begun to cool as daylight decreases and the sun angle lowers, producing a stronger Pacific jet stream which will travel further to the south and have some success in modifying the strong southwestern ridge.
The proximity of the Pacific jet stream will drag several cool fronts through our area through early next week that will keep our temperatures closer to average and keep the chance of afternoon storms in northwesterly flow going through the weekend.
The strongest cool front is currently forecast for late in the weekend or early in the work week, bringing cooler temperatures for Monday and at least part of Tuesday. Additionally, while there may be some stronger storms associated with the front depending upon the exact timing of its arrival, drier air sweeps in behind the cool front which will likely eliminate the chances for storms during the first half of next week.
A stronger Pacific storm is forecast to approach the West Coast midweek, and this one looks to travel far enough south to further weaken and dislodge the Desert Southwest ridge. As the ridge travels eastward, we should see temperatures warm along with increasing storm chances for the rest of the work week and headed into the following weekend as moisture increases from the south along the backside of the ridge.
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Standard summertime weather ahead
Sunday, July 22, 2018
The weak cool front promised in the last forecast does not look to arrive till this evening, so the Steamboat Springs area will see another warm day this Sunday with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool back toward average behind the front on Monday with a good chance of afternoon and evening storms.
For the remainder of the week, our area will be under the influence of generally northwesterly flow as a series of Pacific storms travel well north of our area and drop southward into the Ohio River Valley. This will have the effect of forcing the dominant southwestern ridge of high pressure back westward, cutting off the fetch of monsoonal moisture into Colorado from the south, but bringing periodic surges of moisture and energy to at least northern Colorado.
Right now, Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the week before storm chances reappear for the afternoon and evenings through the rest of the work week and heading into the weekend.
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Cooler weather for next week arrives this Sunday
Thursday, July 19, 2018
The ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest that brought hot and dry weather to the Steamboat Springs area this past week will be pushed eastward this weekend by a Pacific storm that is forecast to travel through southern Canada. We will see a series of weak cool fronts associated with the storm well to our north though the week and good chances for wetting rains from later Saturday through Monday as southerly flow on the west side of the high pressure carries moisture and energy northward over Colorado.
Ahead of that, expect more of the same hot, dry, dusty and gusty weather for the rest of today and Friday. Though Saturday will start dry and warm, there will be an increasing chance of showers by the afternoon or evening as moisture begins arriving over northern Colorado.
Sunday should be noticeably cooler with temperatures closer to average as a weak cool front from the north conspires with increasing moisture to bring some clouds and a good possibility of storms. some with locally heavy rainfall, most likely in the afternoon and evening.
Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday as another weak cool front rotates through northern Colorado. At this time, the ridge of high pressure that was briefly to our east is pushed back westward again by storms dropping southward along the East Coast, though the northern extent of the ridge will be limited by the Canadian storm still well to our north. The end result should be decreased chances for showers and continued cooler temperatures in light northwest flow for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another Pacific storm approaches our area in still northwest flow around Thursday or Friday and may bring an increasing chance of showers to close out the work week.
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Seasonable summertime weather this week
Sunday, July 15, 2018
A weak cool front that passed through the Steamboat Springs area earlier this Sunday brought some brief and very light showers around noon, along with a welcome cool down in temperatures. After some clearing behind the front, we may see another chance of showers later today in the light westerly flow.
The incoming Pacific wave discussed in the last forecast verified on the slower side, likely keeping Monday dry with seasonable temperatures but bringing a chance of showers for Tuesday.
Behind the quick-moving Pacific storm, a ridge of high pressure builds again over the Desert Southwest during the next week, bringing dry weather and hot temperatures back to our area starting on Wednesday.
Another Pacific storm traveling well to our north may provide for a small chance of showers later Thursday as it temporarily flattens the western ridge of high pressure, and we may see some cooler temperatures closer to average on Friday as the grazing storm moves eastward.
The weekend currently looks to be on the dry and warm side as our weather stays firmly under control of the Desert Southwest ridge of high pressure.
There is a hint of the reestablishment of moist monsoonal flow from the south beyond next weekend as the ridge crawls eastward, though at this point the best activity looks to say further to our south.
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Drying trend heading into the weekend
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Some drier air filtering into the Steamboat Springs area this afternoon behind a weak cool front will reduce the chances of afternoon storms through this weekend before they increase again early next week.
But first, Steamboat Springs experienced some fairly dramatic weather the last two days as infrequent westward moving thunderstorms brought brief heavy rain, small hail, and some impressive gust fronts that dropped the temperature by 25 degrees F in about an hour. I have reproduced the new tool on the SnowAalrm home page below that shows the precipitous temperature drops in blue associated with each storm. These drops in temperature on the 10th, highlighted by the blue dot, and 11th are quite apparent when compared to the hot afternoon of the 9th.
Back to the forecast, a weak cool front currently traveling through the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday will continue the chance of showers this afternoon and evening, though the threat of rain is lower than the last few days as drier air filters in behind the front. We will still see at least some chance of our normal summertime afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the weekend before chances increase again early in the work week courtesy of another Pacific wave of energy that will travel near or over our area.
There is some uncertainty with respect to the speed of the incoming Pacific storm and its southern extent, but right now there is an increased chance of showers during Monday and Monday night as the small storm moves through. A slower movement would push the higher chances storm chances to Tuesday.
A building ridge of high pressure to our west will likely bring a return to hot and dry conditions for the rest of the work week as it moves eastward over the Rocky Mountains, with a chance of some moisture returning around the following weekend as the ridge moves east of our area.
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