Friday, March 4, 2016
Warm and dry conditions will last through Sunday morning, with periods of sun and clouds and breezy afternoon winds.
A complex storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska brings storm clouds to our area by later Sunday morning. Precipitation may begin by noon Sunday, with the warm temperatures bringing rain showers in the valleys and the lower slopes of the mountain and snow showers at higher elevations with breezy conditions.
Temperatures will cool by Sunday night lowering snow showers to the valley floors by Monday morning. Scattered snow showers will persist through the day Monday and some of these may produce moderate to locally heavy snowfall for a brief time. Snow will likely quickly melt in the valleys during the day Monday, but I would expect 3-6” of snow on he hill by midnight Monday.
Tuesday is forecast to be unsettled as we are caught between the departing storm to our northeast and a large cutoff storm to our south before drying and warming is advertised for the rest of the work week.
The unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Saturday before a complex storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska affects the Steamboat Springs area Sunday. Ahead of the storm, two weak and precipitation-free waves will pass over the area increasing clouds Saturday afternoon and again Sunday morning.
The main storm in the Gulf ejects a lead storm that crosses the West Coast Sunday morning and brings storm clouds to our area by later Sunday morning. Precipitation may begin by noon Sunday, with the warm temperatures bringing rain showers in the valleys and the lower slopes of the mountain and snow showers at higher elevations.
Temperatures will cool by Sunday night lowering snow showers to the valley floors, but the most persistent snow is likely to be during the day Monday when mountain-top flow veers to the favorable northwest direction. Temperatures will still be on the warm side, so I would expect up to an inch or two of relatively dense snow to be reported Monday morning with an additional 3-6” of dense snow falling mostly during the day and possibly into the early evening Monday.
As this storm passes over the area Monday, the main storm moves southward along the California coast and crosses northern Baja by Monday night, forming a closed low cutoff from the jet stream that is typical of El Nino winters. Though the most persistent snow will be over by then, Tuesday is forecast to be unsettled as we are caught between the departing storm to our northeast and the large cutoff storm to our south.
Drier conditions will ensue for the rest of the work week before a more promising Pacific storm makes landfall around Friday and spreads clouds and possibly precipitation over our area late on Friday.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
The western ridge will hold sway over our area through Saturday, with unseasonably warm temperatures persisting even as upper and mid-level moisture moves through the ridge and brings periods of clouds, especially on the mountain. There may even be a stray snow shower on Friday on the hill as that is when the moisture will be deepest.
A parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will eject a leading wave Saturday night that will cross the West Coast early Sunday and bring storm clouds to our area around Sunday morning. Current forecast have precipitation starting by Sunday afternoon, with snow showers on the hill and rain showers in the valleys.
Precipitation will turn to all snow by Sunday night and likely last through mid-day Monday before the storm moves to our northeast.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
A transient ridge moves over the area tomorrow bringing warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies, with breezy west winds in the afternoon.
A wave to our north traveling through the ridge on Friday will bring cloudier conditions for Friday and slight cooling, but only meager precipitation, if any, is expected.
Moisture hangs around for parts of Saturday yielding some clouds with unseasonably warm temperatures.
A piece of energy from the incoming Pacific storm breaks away from the parent circulation mid-weekend and affects our area with clouds overspreading the area on Sunday and precipitation starting as soon as Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday noon.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
A storm very similar to the one this past Monday will affect our area on Wednesday. Precipitation should get going around sunrise with snow showers in the valleys and periods of light to moderate snow on the hill in the morning. While the bulk of the storm will be over by noon, with 1-3” of snow on the hill and no accumulations in the valleys, there may be rain showers in the valleys and continued snow showers on the hill mixed with periods of sun as the day wears on.
Thursday is looking warm and sunny followed by a possibly unsettled Friday with a chance of rain showers in the valley and snow showers on the hill.
Current forecasts have the weekend starting nice, but becoming unsettled as a weak wave in southwest flow moves over the area. The unsettled weather late in the weekend looks to turn colder and stormier early in the next work week as a large and complex Pacific storm crosses the Great Basin.