Monsoon returns after another cool front Saturday
Thursday, August 20, 2015
The fall-like cool fronts that pushed through our area Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by another two similar fronts Saturday and Sunday mornings before the western ridge rebuilds. Temperatures will rebound and monsoonal moisture will return early in the next work week.
Meanwhile, our hazy smoke-filled skies will likely continue today and tomorrow before a storm currently off the Pacific Northwest coast drags a cool front over our area early in the day Saturday as it moves eastward. This will be followed by a trailing wave early Sunday morning that will reinforce the cool conditions.
Wildfires were reported around Maybell and Craig earlier in the week, and it seems likely at least some of the smoke in the Yampa Valley could be attributed to those now-contained fires. But our current northwest flow is passing over the active wildfire regions in the Pacific Northwest, and that is likely contributing to the haze as well.
The smoke should be cleared from the area by the first front Saturday morning. After the second front passes through the area on Sunday, the persistent western ridge rebuilds, bringing seasonably warm temperatures by Monday and allowing monsoonal moisture from the south to move over the area by later in the day Tuesday. This pattern will bring the chance of storms each day under warm temperatures through the following week, as has been typical for most of our summer.
Longer term, the battle between summer and fall continues as additional energy forms strong storms near the Gulf of Alaska. These storms will interact with the still-strong western ridge, with the stronger storms able to penetrate the ridge enough to interrupt the summer weather with fall-like weather.
Autumn-like front now timed to arrive Tuesday
Friday, August 14, 2015
The western ridge responsible for our persistent monsoonal weather regime this summer is forecast to break down starting tomorrow as a series of Pacific shortwaves cross north of our area this weekend. Then, the first Autumn-like front is forecast to move through the area on Tuesday, bringing windy conditions and dry air with noticeably cooler temperatures.
But first, warm days with the chance of afternoon storms bringing the possibility of locally heavy rainfall will exist for today and more so tomorrow. A storm currently off the coast of northern California will move mostly north of our area late Saturday quickly followed by another wave of cooler air early Sunday that will keep temperatures slightly cooler under possibly cloudy skies.
Concurrently, an unseasonably strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska will cross the Pacific Northwest coast by Monday and turn our winds back to the west during the day. Dry air is forecast to be near our area on Monday, and a small shift in the flow may keep the day dry or continue the chance of afternoon storms.
The American GFS has drastically changed since yesterday’s forecast, and now agrees with the European ECMWF that the mostly dry southern part of the front should pass through the area on Tuesday. Northwest winds will initially be strong on Tuesday along and behind the front, but should moderate through the week as temperatures begin to recover on Wednesday and reach near normal by Thursday.
Additional dry waves passing north of our area will keep similar conditions through the weekend, though there is uncertainty with respect to the strength of another moderately strong wave currently timed for the end of next weekend. However, with models now agreeing on some sort of Gulf of Alaska ridge building around then and keeping the western trough intact, dry and cool conditions will likely persist.
Hints of Autumn appearing in numerical solutions
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Our weather for the next week looks to begin with the persistent summer monsoon having upper-level flow generally from the south or southwest around a Great Basin ridge. The week will end with a series of cool fronts that veer the flow to the west.
The weather through Saturday should be typical of the summer with warm days and the chance for afternoon storms. A storm currently off the coast of northern California will move mostly north of our area late Saturday quickly followed by another wave of cooler air early Sunday that will keep temperatures cooler than normal on Sunday. Additionally, these weak fronts will flatten the Great Basin ridge and may invigorate our typical afternoon storms for the weekend.
Concurrently, a seasonably strong storm moving southward this weekend along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska will turn our winds back to the southwest by Monday, warming temperatures to normal and continuing the chance of afternoon storms.
As this storm crosses the coast and begins to move eastward across the Great Basin on Tuesday, significantly drier air will move into the area by Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by a mostly dry frontal passage Thursday or Friday. This storm should lead to noticeably cooler temperatures by the end of the work week, and these cool temperatures will be reinforced by next weekend as another Pacific Northwest wave moves over the region.
There is considerable model uncertainty for next weekend and after that as the American GFS forecasts a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska while the European ECMWF shows much less, if any, ridging. Incidentally, the Gulf of Alaska ridge is a typical feature of an El Nino event, and I’ve found that while the American GFS may be early in predicting pattern changes, the model often is correct in forecasting an eventual pattern change. It will be interesting to see how that forecast evolves over the next few weeks.
Weekend will dry out after Friday’s moisture surge
Thursday, August 6, 2015
After a pleasant day today, a wave currently near Baja will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture over the Steamboat Springs area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Showers may start as early as noon Friday and may contain locally heavy rainfall by the afternoon. The showery weather with possibly locally heavy rain should last for most of the night.
This wave will be followed by a second wave currently off the coast of California. Even the short range model predictions disagree with the southern extent of this wave as it moves eastward and stays mostly north of our area. There is a chance that showers may linger during the morning hours, but forecasts call for clearing by the afternoon as the departing northern wave drags drier air over the region.
While Saturday afternoon will likely stay dry, there will be a chance of the usual brief afternoon storms from Sunday through Tuesday. Another round of monsoonal moisture from southerly flow around the periphery of a building Great Basin ridge is forecast to cover the state by Wednesday, leading to possibly heavy rain showers on Wednesday and likely afternoon storms on Thursday.
Concurrently, another Pacific storm is forecast to be around the Northwest Coast midweek. There is considerable model uncertainty with respect to the interaction between this wave and the Great Basin ridge, so the forecast for the following weekend is uncertain.
Beautiful start to the weekend
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Our warm days and cool nights will continue through the first half of the weekend. By later in the weekend, moisture to our south moves northward in a weak monsoonal surge and combines with a weak wave moving through the Great Basin and over our area late Sunday or Monday. As a result, storms will threaten our region by Sunday afternoon, with the threat persisting through Sunday night and into Monday.
The wave is east of us by Tuesday allowing drier air to spread into the the area. However, moisture left behind by the late-weekend surge will be recycled under the western ridge, leading to a slight chances of storms each day through the workweek.
By late in the workweek, though models have a strong Pacific storm approach the northwest coast, there is model disagreement on when this storm actually makes landfall. The American GFS is far more aggressive than the European ECMWF in bringing the storm eastward, advertising a strong monsoonal surge of moisture ahead of the storm that moves over our area as soon as Friday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, still has the storm off the coast by mid-weekend, leading to an uncertain forecast for next weekend.
