Thursday, August 6, 2015
After a pleasant day today, a wave currently near Baja will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture over the Steamboat Springs area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Showers may start as early as noon Friday and may contain locally heavy rainfall by the afternoon. The showery weather with possibly locally heavy rain should last for most of the night.
This wave will be followed by a second wave currently off the coast of California. Even the short range model predictions disagree with the southern extent of this wave as it moves eastward and stays mostly north of our area. There is a chance that showers may linger during the morning hours, but forecasts call for clearing by the afternoon as the departing northern wave drags drier air over the region.
While Saturday afternoon will likely stay dry, there will be a chance of the usual brief afternoon storms from Sunday through Tuesday. Another round of monsoonal moisture from southerly flow around the periphery of a building Great Basin ridge is forecast to cover the state by Wednesday, leading to possibly heavy rain showers on Wednesday and likely afternoon storms on Thursday.
Concurrently, another Pacific storm is forecast to be around the Northwest Coast midweek. There is considerable model uncertainty with respect to the interaction between this wave and the Great Basin ridge, so the forecast for the following weekend is uncertain.