Hints of Autumn appearing in numerical solutions

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Our weather for the next week looks to begin with the persistent summer monsoon having upper-level flow generally from the south or southwest around a Great Basin ridge. The week will end with a series of cool fronts that veer the flow to the west.

The weather through Saturday should be typical of the summer with warm days and the chance for afternoon storms. A storm currently off the coast of northern California will move mostly north of our area late Saturday quickly followed by another wave of cooler air early Sunday that will keep temperatures cooler than normal on Sunday. Additionally, these weak fronts will flatten the Great Basin ridge and may invigorate our typical afternoon storms for the weekend.

Concurrently, a seasonably strong storm moving southward this weekend along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska will turn our winds back to the southwest by Monday, warming temperatures to normal and continuing the chance of afternoon storms.

As this storm crosses the coast and begins to move eastward across the Great Basin on Tuesday, significantly drier air will move into the area by Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by a mostly dry frontal passage Thursday or Friday. This storm should lead to noticeably cooler temperatures by the end of the work week, and these cool temperatures will be reinforced by next weekend as another Pacific Northwest wave moves over the region.

There is considerable model uncertainty for next weekend and after that as the American GFS forecasts a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska while the European ECMWF shows much less, if any, ridging. Incidentally, the Gulf of Alaska ridge is a typical feature of an El Nino event, and I’ve found that while the American GFS may be early in predicting pattern changes, the model often is correct in forecasting an eventual pattern change. It will be interesting to see how that forecast evolves over the next few weeks.

Click to sign up for free weather forecasts for Steamboat Springs!

Click to sign up for free weather forecasts for Steamboat Springs!

4 May 2019

Support SnowAlarm!

Donate hereYour generosity directly supports this site!
Amazon banner As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Click here now and then buy almost anything in the next day.
Contact me for information about advertising on this page

Yampa Valley Bugle image

Steamboat Springs

Ski-In / Ski-out properties
Email Dean
or call (970) 846-8284
RightWay Websites logo

Need a new website? Tired of your old one? By purchasing a website hosting package from me, the author of SnowAlarm, for as little as $299 setup and $14/month, you are directly supporting this site.

Advertise here!

Contact me for information about advertising on this page!

Advertise here!

Admin area