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Thanksgiving storm fizzles with better chance of snows later Sunday through Monday

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The chances for snowfall Thursday and possibly Friday look good, though models have trended significantly weaker with the storm for the Steamboat Springs area. The storm is currently located along the Oregon coast, and is forecast to move first southward and then eastward before stalling in the western Great Basin by Thursday. A couple of lobes of energy look to be ejected near our area on Thanksgiving day and again Friday, and though light snow may possibly be falling until Friday night or Saturday morning, the amounts look to be confined to around 1-3” for each day.

A break in the weather is forecast by later Saturday into early Sunday before a Pacific wave moves through the southern portion of the Great Basin low and moves over our area later Sunday. Though precipitation should increase by Sunday afternoon, temperatures will warm as the southwesterly flow increases. This wave does force the Great Basin storm to begin moving eastward though, and I expect the best snows to occur after the storm moves over the area and cool and moist northwest flow is established by early Monday.

Colder air is forecast for later Monday, but moisture begins to decrease as the coldest air arrives, likely limiting snowfall by Monday afternoon and ending it by Monday night. Tuesday will start off chilly, and dry weather with warming temperatures should be noted for midweek as a shallow and transitory ridge moves over the area.

There is a chance for a storm near the end of the work week or next weekend, but confidence is low due to the uncertainty related to the movement of the Great Basin low early in the forecast period.

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