Thursday, September 24, 2015
The current warm days and cool nights reflective of this quintessential Colorado autumn weather will endure through this weekend, highlighting the spectacular fall colors.
Starting early in the work week, model differences make the forecast uncertain. All models have a Pacific storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska splitting, with the northern part of the storm moving north of the Steamboat Springs area late in the weekend. This grazing storm will drag some cooler and more seasonable air over the area by late Sunday or early Monday.
The American GFS insists on the southern part of the storm crossing the West Coast and bringing moisture into the Steamboat Springs area by Monday afternoon. The European ECMWF, on the other hand, has been consistent in keeping the southern part of the storm off the coast for the first few days of the work week and moving it towards our area by later in the week.
Because the GFS has been trending towards the slower and drier ECMWF the last few model runs, I expect this trend to continue, leading to only a slim chance of showers early in the work week.
The ECMWF does finally bring the southern part of the Pacific storm over our area later in the work week, so the weather around then and heading into the following weekend may be unsettled.