Thursday, May 22, 2014
A large upper level low cut off from the mean westerly flow currently sits over central to southern California and will affect our weather for the Memorial Day weekend. Atmospheric moisture will increase each day in first southwest and then southerly flow as the low is forecast to lumber across Arizona and New Mexico through the long weekend. Additionally, a wave in the westerly flow to our north will interact with this low Saturday and more strongly Sunday bringing progressively stronger and wetter conditions to our region through Sunday night.
As is usual during the late spring and summer months, showers should increase as we approach the warmest part of the day, and then decrease as night falls, though the interaction with the wave to the north will keep activity going longer than normal Saturday and Sunday nights.
This interaction should move the low to our east by Monday and lead to noticeably drier and warmer weather. However we will still be susceptible to afternoon showers Monday as the cool air in the mid and upper levels left behind by the storm keeps the atmosphere unstable.
Conditions will be warmer and drier on Tuesday, though we may still see some passing afternoon showers. By early Wednesday, we are completely under the influence of a dry and summery warm airmass that looks to hang around through the remainder of the workweek.