Stormy period may follow quiet Thanksgiving week

Sunday, November 24, 2013

The departing upper level low currently near the Four Corners may produce some snow for our area this afternoon, though central and southern Colorado should do much better as they are closer to the storm. A ridge builds over the west coast early in the week creating drier northwest flow over our area.

Generally quite weather is forecast for Thanksgiving week as four disturbances to our north graze northern Colorado on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. The most promising wave is the weekend wave, but models currently have only very light precipitation over our area then.

These disturbances are a result of energy being diverted around the west coast ridge, but the ridge finally breaks down by the weekend before becoming reestablished off the coast. This should allow waves rotating around the polar vortex (a persistent large-scale cyclone near the pole surrounding the very cold air generated in the polar regions during the winter) to finally influence our area early in the week after Thanksgiving.

Incidentally, he forecast I made late last week for the east coast looks to verify as the cutoff low that has been influencing us for the last few days moves east. It looks to soak the Gulf Coast before turning into a nor’easter by Wednesday. And unfortunately for the eastern ski areas, heavy rain is currently forecast to proceed the cold air behind the storm, although a small eastward change in the storm track could change that forecast to all snow.