Likely rain chances to start the Independence Day weekend
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Temperatures are near eighty degrees under partly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. An approaching storm will combine with subtropical moisture to bring likely rain chances starting tonight that will linger through a cooler Independence Day. Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures return starting Saturday for a beautiful end to the long holiday weekend that will last into the following workweek.
Southerly winds ahead of an area of low pressure moving through the Great Basin have drawn moisture pooling over the Mexican Plateau northward. The upward motion associated with the storm, combined with this moisture, brings likely chances for wetting rains starting this evening.
Thanks to the heating during the day, which cooks the atmosphere, we could see moderate to strong thunderstorms this evening with periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds. The thunderstorm threat diminishes overnight, but does not disappear, as rain showers might transition to a gentler and steadier rain.
A cool front associated with the storm will pass through early Independence Day morning, continuing shower chances through some of the morning. Refreshingly cooler high temperatures approaching eighty degrees may be accompanied by some afternoon sun and a renewed chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Much drier air invades our area behind the storm starting on a mostly sunny Saturday, with high temperatures right around our average of eighty-two degrees. The mid-eighties are forecast for a mostly sunny Sunday, with lots of sun and even warmer temperatures for the following workweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West.
The NOAA Smoke Plume model, which is run four times a day, is showing hazy skies on Saturday as smoke from the large Madrid wildfire in southern California, ignited just yesterday, is transported across the Great Basin by southwest winds. If the smoky skies materialize, they may persist for several days as clockwise winds rotate around the building high pressure system over the West.
So enjoy the rapidly improving Fourth of July weekend, hope for the needed moisture to start the long weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for details on next week’s warmth.
Good rain chances to arrive Thursday
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Temperatures are in the low eighties, on their way to the mid-eighties, with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Some moisture associated with a storm to our north may allow for an afternoon or evening thunderstorm that would produce more wind than rain, ahead of more hot and dry weather through midweek. An approaching storm will bring good chances of rain on Thursday, with late-day storm chances possibly persisting on Independence Day and the start of the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest is bordered by a storm moving through the Dakotas and a storm forming off the coast of central California. The storm to our north has dragged a modicum of moisture overhead, increasing the chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm today that would produce more wind than rain, as any precipitation evaporates before reaching the ground.
The good news is that breezes have shifted from the southwest to the west and northwest, clearing the air of haze from the France Canyon wildfire in southern Utah. As the Dakotas storm and the California storm both move eastward to start the workweek, the Desert Southwest ridge expands northward, keeping the hot and dry weather around through midweek. High temperatures just above eighty-five degrees on Monday and Tuesday, compared to our average of eighty degrees, will be followed by upper eighties on Wednesday as winds turn southwesterly ahead of the California storm.
Wetting rains are currently promised Thursday afternoon and evening as moisture from the Mexican Plateau is first carried northward by southerly winds ahead of the California storm before being lifted by the storm itself as it moves over our area later Thursday.
There is weather forecast model uncertainty regarding whether the storm remains cohesive, as forecast by the European ECMWF, or breaks apart in a piecemeal fashion, as forecast by the American GFS, which would prolong the shower chances into Independence Day and the weekend.
Enjoy the prelude to the long holiday weekend, and I’ll have more details on the increasing moisture for the end of the workweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Warm and mostly sunny for a quintessential Colorado summer weekend
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Temperatures are around eighty degrees with mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. The sunny skies, possibly hazy at times with some afternoon clouds, will persist for most of the weekend, with temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper eighties. There is a chance for some moisture to return to our area during the following workweek.
The jet stream, in its summertime mode, is migrating northward toward Canada as weak disturbances ripple through it, keeping the highest winds to our north. A flat ridge of high pressure over most of the continental United States will allow high temperatures to rise to the mid-eighties on Friday, above our eighty-degree average, with a few degrees of warming forecast for Saturday. The dry air and clear nighttime skies will allow low temperatures to cool into the forties, just above our average of 42 F.
There may be some hazy skies at times due to smoke being transported from the France Canyon wildfire in southern Utah, with some smoke predicted by the NOAA Smoke plume model on Friday afternoon. The model is run four times a day out to 48 hours, so feel free to check that when making outdoor plans this weekend.
A ripple moving through the jet stream may drop high temperatures a degree or two on Sunday. A weak storm is then forecast to form off the California coast over the weekend, and we may see some increasing moisture through next week due to the more southerly winds ahead of the approaching storm. So enjoy this upcoming quintessential Colorado summer weekend, and I’ll have more details on the approaching moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Pleasant weather for the workweek
Sunday, June 22, 2025
After a cool front passed through Steamboat Springs this Sunday morning, temperatures are in the comfortable low-seventies under mostly sunny skies this mid-afternoon. A chilly night will be followed by rising high temperatures that will reach the low-eighties on Tuesday, along with some increasing moisture that will persist on Wednesday for only a slight chance of a shower and several degrees of cooling. Mostly sunny skies return starting Thursday, with the low-eighty-degree temperatures increasing to the upper eighties and persisting through the weekend.
A stout ridge of high pressure over the Southeast is deflecting energy moving through a splitting trough of low pressure extending from the Canadian Plains southwestward through the Great Basin and California. The dry cool front this morning was associated with the southern end of the storm that brought snow to the higher elevations of Idaho, northern Wyoming and Montana. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the thirties tonight, below our average of 41 F, before high temperatures reach our 79 F average on Monday.
Several degrees of warming are expected on Tuesday, along with some afternoon clouds, as limited moisture rotating around the Southeast high pressure is drawn northward ahead of what is left of the southern end of the eastward-moving low pressure system forecast to be over Nevada.
These remnants are forecast to move overhead on Wednesday, bringing more clouds and only a slight chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm that would bring more wind than rain due to most precipitation evaporating in the dry lower atmosphere.
The ridge of high pressure over the Southeast is then forecast to extend westward starting Thursday, eventually reaching the Desert Southwest by the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to rise back into the low-eighties on Thursday and upper-eighties for Friday and the weekend under mostly sunny skies.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures for the rest of today, and the pleasant weather for the workweek, and I’ll have more details on the weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Hot and dry weather to continue through the weekend
Thursday, June 19, 2025
Temperatures have already reached eighty-six degrees in Steamboat Springs at the Bob Adams airport earlier this Thursday afternoon, and there may be a couple of degrees of further warming if the partly cloudy skies turn less cloudy. The arrival of this heat is well-timed, as the first day of astronomical summer occurs tomorrow at 8:42 pm when the sun reaches its northernmost point from the equator, and coincides with the shortest night of the year. An approaching storm will bring a hot, dry and windy Friday, followed by a cooler and less windy, but still breezy, weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is over the Rocky Mountains while a strong and persistent storm in the Gulf of Alaska, discussed in my last weather narrative, is moving toward the Pacific Northwest coast. The storm will cross the coast on Friday while pushing the ridge eastward, substantially increasing our southwesterly winds and fire danger, with mountain-top winds as high as 60 mph possible. Temperatures will again reach the upper-eighties, well above our average of seventy-seven degrees, under mostly sunny skies.
A few degrees of cooling are forecast for a less windy, but still breezy, Saturday as the hot air mass pushes eastward. More cooling and temperatures around eighty degrees are forecast for Sunday as energy ejecting from the storm is deflected to the northwest and a weak cool front brushes our area.
The storm is forecast to move into Idaho early Sunday, but its southward progress is stalled by the stout ridge of high pressure now centered over the Southeast. Like the ejecting energy on Friday, it too is forecast to rotate to the northwest and drag another cool front through our area on Monday, keeping high temperatures in the low-eighties.
Meanwhile, energy rotating around low pressure over Hudson Bay will drag a mass of cold air from western Canada toward Idaho early in the workweek, reinvigorating the area of low pressure over the West. Combined with a building ridge of high pressure over the Southeast, we may begin to see the first hints of the North American Monsoon next week as moisture is drawn northward from the Mexican Plateau in the southerly winds between these two features.
So enjoy what will certainly be a very summery first weekend of summer, and I’ll have more details on what may be the beginnings of our monsoon season in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
