Monday, September 12, 2016
A cutoff low spinning in the western Great Basin will be nudged eastward to northeastward through the work week, continuing the breezy and unsettled weather before drier air is advertised for the weekend.
We will again be susceptible to showers on Tuesday as an ill-defined wave ejects out of the Great Basin low. By Wednesday, the cutoff low begins to move eastward and elongates to our north and south through Thursday, continuing the threat of showers and increasing already breezy winds from the southwest.
The storm finally drags a weak cool front through the area on Thursday, decreasing the winds but again continuing the chance of showers, with some of the storms possibly strong in the vicinity of the front. The cool air may make for a chilly Friday morning, but drier air behind the storm should make for a mostly sunny day.
Some more cool air leaks into the Steamboat Springs area by Saturday morning for another chilly start to the day, but temperatures should warm nicely for a beautiful day as the last bit of the storm moves east of our area.
It looks like another beautiful day for Sunday and possibly Monday before there is model disagreement about a storm to our southwest that may allow for moisture to return to Colorado early in the next work week.
Friday, September 9, 2016
While one trough of low pressure to our north drags a dry cool front through the region today and tonight, another trough crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Sunday and splits, with the southern portion closing off and taking up residence in the Great Basin for the upcoming work week.
The weekend will be sandwiched between these troughs and feature beautiful warm sunny days and quite cool nights with outdoor plants likely needing help to make it through the around-freezing temperatures on Saturday morning.
The southern portion of the split will force our winds to back from the current northwest to southwest by Sunday night, allowing a tap of subtropical moisture to flow over Colorado. A cool front associated with the passing northern part of the split on Monday will likely enhance showers by the afternoon that may extend into the evening as it swings through the area.
Though the heaviest showers will pass as the northern part of the split moves east of the area on Monday, the lumbering Great Basin low will allow moisture to remain over our area, continuing the chance of afternoon showers through most of the work week.
Monday, September 5, 2016
Cool nights and warm mostly sunny days will be the rule through the work week and lasting for most of next weekend. A trough to our west in the Great Basin will remain quasi-stationary for the beginning of this period, occasionally ejecting waves of energy that will drag shallow and dry cool fronts through or just north of the Steamboat Springs area. The strong early September sun will allow temperatures to quickly recover from the cool mornings.
The Great Basin trough will be ejected to our north by a couple of Pacific waves late in work week, with the second wave looking to deepen as it approaches our area late in the weekend. There may be some moisture that is drawn northward in the southwest flow ahead of the storm around Sunday with a well defined cold front currently advertised for Monday. The timing and strength of the front will no doubt change as the models get a better handle on the storm, but at this point the American GFS says it may be cold enough for some snow at the top of Mt. Werner.
Thursday, September 1, 2016
A persistent and large Pacific Northwest trough will affect our weather for the next week as it is reinforced by cool air traveling southward from the North Pole. Southwest flow ahead of the trough has picked up a shortwave currently producing showers in northern Arizona, and the short range HRRR model has rain reaching our area before sunrise Friday.
There will be a break in the rain after it ends Friday morning, but the wetter AVN model has another round of afternoon storms as another ill-defined wave moves near the Steamboat Springs area. Curiously, the NAM is dry so that discrepancy lowers forecast confidence.
Though some drier air works into the area on Saturday, there will be enough moisture for another round of afternoon storms, some possibly strong.
By Sunday, much drier air ahead of the advancing trough, forecast to take up residence in the Great Basin for the week, will move overhead and likely produce some spectacularly nice weather for the remainder of the long Labor Day weekend.
Though dry, some cool air from the Great Basin trough will be dragged over our early by Monday by ejecting energy traveling west and then north of our area. The combination of seasonably cool temperatures and a very dry atmosphere will keep morning lows chilly and tender plants in low-lying areas may require some protection.
Cool air continues to pour into the Great Basin trough through the week keeping it quasi-stationary. It appears we will be on the boundary between dry and moist air, with some moisture possibly returning for a brief spell on Tuesday to fuel a slight chance of afternoon storms. Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures with cool mornings look to persist for the rest of the work week before the Great Basin trough is kicked eastward by another Pacific storm that may threaten next weekend’s weather.
Monday, August 29, 2016
A series of Pacific Northwest storms will move a building western ridge eastward through this week as energy from the storms moves generally northeastward from Oregon and Washington through the Canadian Rockies. As was the case last week, the best moisture in Colorado looks to say south of the Steamboat Springs area early this week and any storms that do develop will likely have more wind than rain as the lower atmosphere stays relatively dry.
Forecasts have the Pacific Northwest storm consolidating through the week, eventually forming a large trough of low pressure that moves ashore around Thursday. Winds over our area will increase from the southwest as the storm moves closer and deeper moisture will be pulled over our area starting Thursday. Hard to define waves in the southwest flow may provide enough forcing to allow for afternoon and possibly evening storms to form for Thursday and Friday before the moisture plume is shunted to the east for Labor Day weekend.
Currently, it looks like there may be enough moisture around for Saturday and Sunday for a small chance of afternoon storms in seasonably cool temperatures, while Labor Day looks dry and continued cool as a tongue of much drier air invades behind the main storm that is forecast to be over Montana then.
Additional trailing energy will force some sort of cool front through the area around next Tuesday possibly allowing for a cool day with showers depending upon the strength of the front.