Powder snow becoming scarce
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Heading up for my afternoon ski around 2pm, it was obvious that Steamboat’s visitors have arrived as Heavenly Daze was crowded. Lift lines on the upper mountain have pretty much disappeared by then, so I went looking for soft snow in Shadows. Lots of places of great packed powder skiing, but I only found a few areas that had the one or two untracked turns. The snow in Lower Shadows warmed up nicely yesterday, and since it was cooler today with less sun, I opted for a cruiser down Moonlight to access Sundown.
The Sundown lifline was skiing very good, albeit it a bit stiff with our cool temperatures. I cut over to 3 O’Clock near the bottom to avoid the sparse snow just above Duster, and found soft snow first on the left side of the groomer track down 3 O’Clock and then the right side near the bottom.
My last run on the upper hill was Closet, which also had pockets of cut up powder as well as the odd hidden stash of untracked. I cut over to Hurricane and then down to Vagabond to ski some interesting snow in the trees over by Why Not and above BC Skiway. Lots of downed trees in there and we only have 41” mid mountain base, so the skiing was slow, careful and deliberate. Still, it was nice to ski some difficult-to-reach powder on the lower mountain.
After a bit of snow tonight, the storm forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday is uncertain as one model predicts substantial snow while another predicts far less. It seems we have had so many New Years Day powder days over the years I would lean toward the more optimistic forecast until more details emerge in subsequent model runs.
A bit more certain is that the pattern change forecast by the American model for several weeks now is likely to occur in about a weeks time, or perhaps just after next weekend. The European model has for the last two model runs agreed that another arctic outbreak is likely, similar to the one a few weeks ago, as the polar vortex over Hudson Bay moves westward.
Light snow Sunday and likely heavier snow Tuesday into Wednesday
Friday, December 27, 2013
A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is keeping mild northwest flow over the area. The Storm Peak Lab near the top of Mt. Werner did not get much below 15F last night even as the valley reached 0F in the cold temperature-inverted airmass. A beautiful sunny and seasonably warm day on the hill is on tap for today before a splitting shortwave rounding the top of the ridge affects our area by midday Saturday beginning with high cloudiness and falling temperatures.
Snow is expected by midnight Saturday and through the rest of the night, but amounts are forecast to be light and only in the 1-4” range. A couple of disturbances in the northwest flow should influence our weather through midweek. The first wave will bring some more snow by late Monday night or early Tuesday with the second stronger and moister wave continuing heavier snows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snow showers should continue through Wednesday evening before we may see some clearing on Thursday.
Another wave in this northwest flow may affect the area by Friday, although current forecasts have this one grazing us and producing only very light snow. After that, major disagreements in the models appear in the 10 day period as one is forecasting a pattern change by breaking down the Gulf of Alaska ridge while another keeps that ridge intact.
Snow a possibility for Sunday and early next week
Thursday, December 26, 2013
As a weak wave exits the area today, warming should occur through Saturday morning on the mountain slopes as the valleys stay cold in well established temperature inversions.
Another weak and dry wave moves across the area later on Saturday bringing cooler temperatures, but no snow. However, another moister and stronger wave quickly follows and may produce some snow for Sunday. Models originally predicted this wave to our east, but have since trended further west improving our chances for precipitation.
A nice Monday morning before another wave is forecast to begin affecting our area by late Monday. Again, models have trended stronger and further west with this system, and current forecasts have snow starting late Monday as the cool wave approaches in moist northwest flow. Snow may continue Tuesday into Wednesday morning before ridging once again takes hold creating warmer and dry conditions to close out the workweek.
An active weather pattern appears likely to persist, with models tentatively predicting another storm for later in the weekend.
More wind and more wind affected snow
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Temperatures rose through last night until they finally began to fall with frontal passage around 4am. We had a nice burst of snow from around 9am - 10am which dropped a quick 2”, and with that added to this mornings 3” report, the mountain had about 5” of snow from this storm.
The wind picked up during the day, forcing temporary lift closures for Storm Peak and Morningside. By the time I got up there for my afternoon of skiing, the wind had died down and the sun even made an appearance for my last couple of runs. The snow in the upper half of the Priest Creek area was very wind affected and more difficult skiing than the day before, but areas at lower elevation like parts of Lower Shadows and the Rolex trees did not see as much wind and skied very well. There are even pockets of deep untracked snow hiding about.
Good skiing on the lower mountain as well as it wasn’t as windy down there. Generally soft snow everywhere on the hill, with wind affected powder on the firm side. I took Lower Vagabond down for a ride up Thunderhead at the end of the day, and that groomer was skiing great. Even Heavenly Daze had soft carveable snow.
Far more sun than snow looks to be on tap for the remainder of the year, but the skiing is great right now!
Snow ends this evening with dry weather to follow
The well advertised wave moving through northwest flow did not begin to affect our area till around 4am this morning. We had a burst of snowfall between around 9-10am that was falling at several inches per hour, and another band looks to cross the area later this afternoon. The snow that fell earlier was relatively dense, and with some round graupel particles mixed in, the snow should fill in the tracks on the hill nicely. Temperatures should be falling through the day and hopefully we can get some accumulating snow crystals called dendrites to add a layer of light and fluffy powder for later today. I expect outstanding skiing on the hill today as the storm passes through.
If skies clear tonight, it could be a chilly start to the day tomorrow, although it should be a brilliantly sunny day. A dry wave passes Thursday and that may knock temperatures down a few degrees before they rebound to produce unseasonably warm weather by Friday. Valleys will likely stay cool as temperature inversions reform and persist over the the fresh snowpack.
Another weak wave to our north that grazes the area on Saturday will create more seasonable temperatures that look to last into and possibly through the next work week. Models are struggling with the forecast for the following weekend as one flattens the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska possibly leading to some weather for our area while another rebuilds the ridge and keeps us dry.
