Cool and mostly dry next week
Thursday, November 6, 2014
A mostly dry and cool forecast will dominate this next weeks weather after a beautiful weekend, except for around Monday when some light snow and a blast of seasonably cool air is forecast for our area.
Current sunny conditions will mostly last through the weekend. A weak wave skirting our northern border will drop temperatures a bit tomorrow and possibly bring some clouds before they warm again by Saturday.
Another wave crossing the northwest coast from the Pacific on late Saturday night will phase with some cold air moving southward from the Canadian Plains and force a cold front through the area on Monday. There will be some snow associated with this front as the remaining Pacific moisture is lifted over the Park Range, but most of the weather will be confined to the Front Range. Several more waves moving southward from the Canadian Plains will keep the seasonably cold air in place most if not all of the workweek, with some very light snow possible for a short time around late Wednesday.
There is uncertainty late in the workweek, and heading into next weekend, regarding whether the cold air moves eastward or is reinforced, as the American GFS has warmer weather returning by then while the European ECMWF keeps us cooler.
More fall photos - part 3 of 3
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Last in a series of posts showing some of the spectacular color this fall!
Looking up Tenderfoot near the bottom of this trail just above the intersection with Zigzag on 4 Oct 2014
Taken near the top of Creekside on 7 Oct 2014
Another pair of photos looking down Creekside from a bit lower down on the the trail, taken the next day on 8 Oct 2014.
The photo on the left is taken on Tenderfoot on 5 Oct 2014. The photo on the right is taken on the Why Not road running by Surprise and looking north toward Rocky Peak (the peak seen on the left center edge of the photo) on 19 Oct 2014
The aspen color was holding strong on the upper reaches of Rustlers Ridge just below Thunderhead Peak as late as 19 Oct 2014.
Another colorful photo taken from lower down on Rustlers Ridge looking out over the Yampa south valley on 19 Oct 2014. The Flat Tops can be seen through the haze on the horizon.
More fall photos - part 2 of 3
Some more photos of the spectacular color this fall! This sequence is taken over a week or so and shows the mountain as I rode from the bottom to near the top.
A nice panorama of the lower mountain taken from just uphill of the Thunderhead maintenance building at the bottom of Tenderfoot, taken 8 Oct 2014
Higher up on the hill is a view of the Zigzag trail as it skirts the northern side of the Steamboat Ski area near Burgess Creek, taken 26 Sep 2014
Looking up at Thunderhead Peak from Tenderfoot just below Vagabond saddle, taken 25 Sep 2014
A panorama of the Priest Creek area of the upper mountain taken from the Elkhead trail on 25 Sep 2014. Note the Duster cat track cutting across the Closet, Shadows, Three O’Clock and Two O’Clock in the upper third of the photo.
Looking up the bottom part of Sunshine just above Rendezvous Lodge, taken 20 Sep 2014
The upper part of Sunshine taken just after the apex of the trail near the top of Two O’Clock on 25 Sep 2014.
More fall photos - part 1 of 3
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Some more photos of the spectacular color this fall highlighting the changes in color and coverage that occured in only a few days time.
The photos above were taken from Duster looking up into Twilight on 18 Sep 2014 and 25 Sept 2014. Notice the nice red color of the changing aspen.
The photos above were taken on Duster from Rainbow saddle on 20 Sep 2014 and 25 Sep 2014. Notice the deer standing in the middle of the trail on the first photo!
The photos above were taken on Tenderfoot on 29 Sept 2014, 5 Oct 2014 and 11 Oct 2014 as the remaining leaves fell from the aspen.
The photos above were taken near the base of the Pony Express lift looking up at the Storm Peak lift on 8 Oct 2014 and then 14 Oct 2014 after our first substantial upper mountain snow. Another deer managed to pose for the first photo!
Another weeks end storm
Thursday, October 30, 2014
A ridge of high pressure will keep our beautiful weather around until a strong Pacific storm currently bringing precipitation to the northwest affects our weather starting this weekend. Even California looks to receive significant precipitation as the storm makes landfall there late Friday night.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the storm will bring increasing moisture into our area on Saturday, though temperatures will be warm with high clouds. As the storm approaches the Great Basin on Saturday it is expected to split, making the forecast for Sunday through Tuesday a bit uncertain.
Current forecasts have a lead shortwave moving over our area early Sunday with some precipitation expected, though it will likely be light and relatively warm, with high snow levels. Cool air will filter in through the day Sunday, but most of the storm will be felt as the southern portion of the storm approaches our area later that day or evening.
The American GFS keeps this southern energy over our area during the day Monday, leading to snow and sharply colder temperatures as northwest flow is established behind the front. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times Monday, even in town, before ending that night. The European ECMWF, on the other hand, is forecasting more energy left behind in the Great Basin, and in fact closes off the storm and forms a cutoff low that moves over the U.S. - Mexico border later in the week. This solution would lead to warmer weather and less precipitation as energy passes south of us, though the unsettled conditions would be with us longer, likely through Tuesday.
In either case, a flat ridge is forecast behind the storm, leading to warmer temperatures by mid-week and lasting through at least the rest of the workweek. A storm from the Gulf of Alaska is currently forecast to stay north of us for the following weekend, though that forecast is uncertain at this time.
